Corvette Corvette

private cap mkts

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

You may think “why would we want to ‘tame equity growth’.” I’d rather have steady growth than a grand boom and bust that we may see soon. Less volatility in equities (and ideally, more stable growth) is generally a good thing for the economy

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

We’re so overlevered to equities as a country

In my eyes:

Raise rates —> tame exorbitant equity growth —> keep inflation at bay —> reverse K-shaped consumer spending via stabilized equity values amongst top earners + reduced inflation for everyone —> provide Fed with a larger lever to cut rates if the economy goes south

Chart credit to dc_economics on IG

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

At Pop Up Bagel in Tribeca, I go to order a bagel and they tell me I need to order at least 3. What kind of tomfoolery is this?

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

This chart conveys well how the Fed was late to hiking rates post-pandemic/ZIRP, which required it to play catchup and hike 525 bps from effectively 0% in Mar’22 to 5.25% in Jul’23

See how the 12mo % change in the Fed funds rate (black line) generally tracked the S&P 500 12mo fwd earnings growth % since 1986, with the exception of 2010-2015 when the Fed maintained near-zero rates to rebuild the economy post-GFC

In ‘21 and early ‘22, the Fed saw parabolic EPS growth in US equities but was slow to hike rates because of perceived post-pandemic economic fragility. The result was:

• +9.1% YoY CPI change in Jun’22 (the highest since 1981)
• An effective shuttering of the IPO window and the BSL market
• Decimation of VC & PE fundraising (aside from the blue-chip megafunds)
• A sluggish ‘22 for equity markets that was ultimately bailed out by the onset of AI

All of this to say, the Fed should begin hiking rates at its next meeting (Warsh’s first) to avoid making the same mistake it did just 4-5 years ago. Not to mention, inflation’s been persistently above the 2% target and the labor market, while fragile, is tight, as unemployment has been rangebound between 4.0-4.5% for the past 2 years

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@paulswaney3 @Jason What do you mean by penstroke risk in this context

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@marcuslemonis @miamimanmemedia @DaveGrutman Marcus are we finishing the year above or below 7,000 on the S&P

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

Ok this stat is a stretch

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@saif305 @VanderbiltU @ServiceNow @FloridaAtlantic The new Vanderbilt campus is in West Palm Beach not Miami

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@exec_sum This photo is of Palm Beach not West Palm Beach lol

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@0xFiatToZero @alex_moody @ceden_network @gibs_ludicrous $weapon

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

We deserve justice. Alex Moody committed fraud. I’ve held MegaWeapon for 4 years. As soon as he came in as the CEO and founder of Ceden, the fraud began. Most of the liquidity pool was wiped, given assumedly to @alex_moody (Alex Moody) and @gibs_ludicrous (Ludicrous Gibs) from honest retail investors. All MegaWeapon and Ceden Network socials and chats have been wiped over the past few days as they rugged the rest of the LP. Outright fraud

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@HighyieldHarry Wild

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@heyjchu @DrCamRx Lmao

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@grok @pent314 God damnit

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@deedydas This is missing @alexandr_wang

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@kylepullman @rabois @traestephens Ah

[Corvette Corvette @corvette11111]

@aruggiero03 @pent314 11 but who’s counting