Skye

A.S. 2026 • B.S Meteorology 2028 • Python Dev • 22 • Opinions are mine alone

[Hurricane Hunters @53rdWRS]

🌀 INTO THE STORM | Air Force Reserve #HurricaneHunters with the 53rd WRS are flying Hurricane Lowell, collecting critical data to help forecasters determine the storm’s intensity and track.

Stay weather-aware and follow guidance from local officials.

#53WRS #HurricaneLowell

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

This run once again continues the trend of a stronger El Nino by the beginning of Winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Something to note is that Nino 3.4 anomalies initialized warmer than observed in this run (by ~0.7°C).

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

The September CanSIPS is now available and I've generated the full run with the modern 1991-2020 climatology & the global mean anomaly removed.

This run stretches into late Summer 2027, though the focus on this run remains the very strong El Nino on-going this Fall.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

As is tradition now, I've generated versions of the August CanSIPS run with the modern 1991-2020 Climo & a version with the global mean anomaly removed.

Generally expectations remain the same, moving into Winter 2026-27 a strong El Nino event is expected to persist.

[Bryan Norcross @bryannorcrosstv]

34 YEARS AGO TODAY: By 4:35 AM, Hurricane #Andrew has begun it's all-out assault on Homestead, Key Biscayne, and the suburbs south of Miami. Insane and unforgettable things happened over the next 2 1/2 hours. A palm tree had been speared before, but there was much more. Reflections at https://t.co/q7JyjfYnJq

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

The warming trend is especially clear when looking at the peak of the El Nino event, where since May, the NMME has trended nearly 1°C warmer in Nino 3.4.

This run also maxes out the anomaly scale over a wide zone (which is +5°C!!)

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

Like with the CanSIPS, I've generated the August 2026 NMME run, including a global mean anomaly version.

This run once again trends warmer with the ongoing El Nino event, with normal SSTAs nearly reaching +4°C (global mean nears +3.5°C!)

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

The July 2026 NMME is in and like the past 2 months, I've plotted the full run with a global mean SSTA version included.

This months run sees another slight uptick in the El Nino, with global mean SSTAs peaking around +3°C (non-global mean SSTAs peak around +3.57°C!)

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

@rushtropicalwx These were derived by objectively comparing the Feb-Mar global SST pattern to all years since 1940, then seeing which years best matched how 2026 was expected to progress at the time.

Mainly looked for:
+ENSO
+PMM
-Atlantic Tripole

The years above are listed best to worse match

[Deelan Jariwala @WxTca]

Winds over the equatorial Pacific near the International Dateline were the most westerly on record when averaged over the month of July, thanks to the developing El Niño. This likely contributed to an extended monsoon trough, which has spawned multiple intense typhoons already.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

@rushtropicalwx My analogs in spring were 2015, 1982 (both weighted twice), 1997, 1986, 2009, 1968, 1990, and 1951
That averages out to ~58.74 ACE.

Using 10th and 90th percentiles that nets a range of 31.5-99.75 (though the high end is a bit skewed here from 1951)
My forecast would be 35-75 rn.

[Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton]

It's funny with all the discourse from earlier this Spring about how the ECMWF "always has a high bias" for ENSO, when in reality the observed RONI has exceeded all but one of the ensemble members from April.

The latest forecast has settled in around +3C for the peak, which I believe would be a record.

Another good reminder that the "Spring Barrier" can go both ways with the uncertainty for ENSO.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

@rushtropicalwx It becomes important though when tied to +ENSO and a less-than-optimal Atlantic config (such as 2026)

I personally have a hard time seeing the -PDO overcoming an overwhelming +ENSO with a +PMM and negative Atlantic tripole.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

@rushtropicalwx Naturally a warmer MDR will tend more active, the PMM though does play a role.
Notice that the bottom half of the graph (where the PMM is warmer than the MDR) has a higher frequency of less active seasons compared to the top half
It's not the strongest correlation, but it's there

[CG15Wx @cycloneguy15]

If it wasn't obvious enough that our current niño is record-breaking, ELI (avg longitude of equatorial SSTs meeting the convective threshold) going past the dateline signals a highly anomalous event. In theory, 26C waters off the Galapagos would be hot enough for convection!

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

@rushtropicalwx It's not an overwhelming correlation like with ENSO, but generally speaking:
Warm PMM + Cold MDR implies a less active Atlantic
Cold PMM + Warm MDR implies a more active Atlantic
Which makes sense considering a +PMM increases the extent of warmth (which can impact total ascent).

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

This run continues a trend seen all summer long -- a stronger El Nino event this fall heading into winter.

Incredibly this months run peaks relative Nino 3.4 anomalies at +3°C, with non-relative anomalies nearing +4°C!

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

As is tradition now, I've generated versions of the August CanSIPS run with the modern 1991-2020 Climo & a version with the global mean anomaly removed.

Generally expectations remain the same, moving into Winter 2026-27 a strong El Nino event is expected to persist.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

That time of the month!
The July CanSIPS run is out and I've plotted versions of this run with a modern 1991-2020 climatology and with the global mean anomaly removed.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

This run continues a trend, similar to the CanSIPS of a stronger El Nino event this fall, which has implications on hurricane activity as we progress through peak season.

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

The July 2026 NMME is in and like the past 2 months, I've plotted the full run with a global mean SSTA version included.

This months run sees another slight uptick in the El Nino, with global mean SSTAs peaking around +3°C (non-global mean SSTAs peak around +3.57°C!)

[Skye @cosmicweather_]

I've updated my NMME plots with the June 2026 run.
Overall idea remains the same, strong El Nino event is expected heading into Fall/Winter.

This months run is slightly warmer than last month, where Nino 3.4 peaks at +2.77C even with the global mean SSTA removed!

[Dr. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits]

As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal.

By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic.

We can't guarantee no Atlantic storms in July, especially with the always-present risk of so-called "home grown" development along old cold fronts that drape across the SW Atlantic and Gulf region. But things seem likely to stay in check for a while.