Charles Prael

[Charles Prael @cprael]

So... if you decide to follow me, you best be posting or commenting somewhere, If you're an account with zero posts, and you just follow, I'll assume you're a bot, and block accordingly.

[spiked @spikedonline]

Andy Burnham has confirmed he’ll restrict VPNs, potentially bringing Britain in line with China, Russia and Iran. Starmer’s censorship regime will be expanded and deepened. Big Burnham will be watching you, says Fraser Myers
https://t.co/hCLj2aEEcV

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@Coinulaire @TKratman Impressive. You can, of course point to legislation at the time that the federal government assumed those costs. No?

And by that same logic, the slaves and all associated parties (which at this point includes most if Africa and the Muslim world) owes for freeing said slaves.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@TKratman If anything, im owed for multigenerational cumulative affects of PTSD.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@L1vsun Please PM me where you found him. Id potentially like to hire him. Bonus - were down in Chattanooga.

[Livsun @L1vsun]

a hotel front desk clerk in nashville figured out why markets move exactly when they do

not direction, not news - the actual mechanism of why a move happens at all

he works overnight shift, 11pm to 7am. lobby goes quiet after midnight, nothing but a monitor and a wifi connection

question that started it: why does volatility cluster

he'd read it in passing - options dealers cause price moves they didn't intend

spent 6 hours across two nights searching, wrote everything into a google doc called "options thing"

here's what he found

when you buy a call option from a dealer, dealer has a new problem. they sold you the right to buy shares at a certain price

if stock moves up, your option gains value and dealer owes you money. to protect themselves they have to buy shares immediately - no discretion, no delay

amount they have to buy at every price level is published every second for free - it's open interest on the options chain. every brokerage shows it

he built a spreadsheet

every morning at 9:29am, one minute before open, he pulled SPY's options chain and calculated where dealers were most exposed

marked strikes with heaviest call open interest. watched what happened in first 30 minutes of trading

day 12 he stopped breathing for a second

price moved to the strike with heaviest dealer exposure 73% of the time in the first 45 minutes

not because of a chart pattern, not because of any signal

because 400 dealers ran the same hedge calculation at open, and all of them had to buy the same shares at the same time

he started calling it gravity

price pulls toward certain strikes when dealer positioning is heavy enough - not prediction, mechanics

math has a name: gamma exposure, or GEX

SpotGamma built a whole company surfacing it. Squeeze Metrics published an academic paper on mechanics in 2018

python implementation is around 400 lines, nothing but the options chain you already have

he built it in google colab over 3 weekends, free, working only on nights the lobby was empty

tracked it against 60 days of live SPY data

on negative GEX days - dealers short gamma, forced to amplify moves - average daily range expanded 2.8x

on positive GEX days, 63% of sessions closed within half a percent of open

this is not a signal. it's a regime classifier

negative GEX: something moves big today, whichever direction gets started. buy straddles, size up, let dealers carry it

positive GEX: nothing moves today. dealers kill every attempt before it gets 2 points

sell premium, collect theta, sleep

at month 4 he went live. $4,200 account, pure options, no directional bet

six months later: $4,200 became $19,800

he still works overnight shift. told me about it in the lobby at 3am when i asked what he was typing

google doc still says "options thing" - he never renamed it

i asked why he never shared this. he looked at the lobby doors and said "who would believe a hotel clerk"

data is free, formula is public, wall street has run this since 2017

they assumed retail would never think to read options flow as a mechanical map of where price has to go

they were right about retail. they weren't right about him

bookmark this and go build it

market tells you exactly where it's going. you just have to stop reading the wrong layer

Write your thought below

[@amuse @amuse]

DRIVE-BY MEDIA: Most Americans believe that black women are primarily murdered by racist white men. It turns out that 99% are committed by blacks. 91% are committed by black men and 8% are committed by black women. It turns out that 0% are committed by white supremacists. Why does the media want us to think white men are the problem?

h/t @EndWokeness

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@fwmarqix Hey, Pete, can I borrow your car?

Sure, I guess. How long?

Until my ladder comes home.

[Handre @Handre]

Two countries split from the same colonial body in 1965. One picked economic freedom. The other picked handouts and racial spoils. You already know how this ended.

Singapore had no oil, no farmland, no hinterland. Just a swamp and a port. Lee Kuan Yew looked at that and trusted trade, low taxes, and hard money. Central planners hate what he did.

Malaysia went the other way. In 1971 Kuala Lumpur launched the New Economic Policy, a state program handing quotas, contracts, and university seats to ethnic Malays. Politicians decided who got what. A commissar fantasy dressed in liberal language.

Now let's look at the numbers. In 1965 both places sat around $500 per capita. Today Singapore clears $84,000. Malaysia sits near $13,000. Same climate, same starting line, one sixth the result.

The Singapore dollar holds its value because the Monetary Authority of Singapore manages it against a currency basket and refuses to print its way out of trouble. The ringgit has lost roughly two thirds of its value against the Singapore dollar since 1981.

You cannot subsidize your way to wealth. You cannot redistribute what you never let people produce. Every ringgit funneled through a quota is a ringgit some bureaucrat spent on his own vision instead of a customer's.

Malaysia bet on planners deciding outcomes. Singapore bet on people deciding for themselves. The gap between $84,000 and $13,000 is your answer.

[DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican]

Hello Mr. Clinton,

I'm not going to extend to you the courtesy that your paragraph about lawfare extends to Trump supporters. Because I've studied enough of you, to know what you are truly about.

You were President during the post-Cold War sugar high. I have it thoroughly documented that you and your administration met with George Soros frequently, and in short term changed your policy positions to fit whatever George Soros proposed.

Which was: continuous military intervention all over the world. Starting with the bombing of Yugoslavia. You were the original neoconservative. Madeline Albright used "open society" phrasing in communicating your foreign policy documents. You are a part of the long string of failures of nation-building in the name of democracy, the Western interventions that resulted in millions of mass migrants overwhelming our borders, artificial famines, and us building the infrastructure that enabled China to take over the Africa continent and extract African resources for themselves.

But. Most of all. Those of us -- and there are a good deal many of us -- who have been ruined by lawfare. @GenFlynn sacrificed everything. @JeffClarkUS has had his life ruined and is still rebuilding. At the end of the day, only one President has been the subject of repeated assassination attempts and eighty-plus indictments - and it's President Trump. Not anyone in your orbit.

Seriously, Bill. What do you think when you see that a Democrat gets indicted by a grand jury, and a judge inevitably overturns that indictment on grounds that nobody has heard of? "Oh wow the judges are so wise and saw right through a jury of peers! And that wisdom coincidentally happens to always fall on party lines!" Give me a break.

Every single one of us on the right-wing side knows that when your side regains power, your side will turn the full might of lawfare on us. You will cheer on mass incarcerations. You openly brag about that. You even toe the line of threatening to jail current military members if they don't refuse orders from Pete Hegseth.

You are the evil one here. You cheer on the burning of our cities. You cheer on lawfare of Republicans. You never apologized for the millions of lives disrupted all over the world. You never say a word about the billions or even trillions of dollars that have been robbed by your friends through corrupt NGOs.

The fact that none of you are in jail, proves that we are the powerless ones here. You're just afraid that someone sees you for you who are, and you secretly know that image is ugly.

[Kenneth A. Grimm ن "K. A. G. Sundaram" @kagsundaram]

The Patriot Front has gone through a metamorphosis over the years, with at least three instars.

Originally, the PF was a grassroots right-wing gang of crazy hillbillies along that traditional battleground of racial tension, the Mason-Dixon line.

Then it was infiltrated by the Feds.

Then "new chapters were formed" with basically no contact with the original leadership.

Then the Patriot Front marches appeared. When the Louisiana state anti-terrorist task force investigated the Washington DC march (as a potential local threat) they concluded that it was composed entirely of Federal LEO cadets. Note that in those days the uniforms were not merely similar; they were identical, and contained numerous items identifiable as federal LEO standard.
Also, that investigation that the trucks the PF arrived in had to be hurriedly replaced, as they were stolen while parked. The BOLO listed the renter as the FBI.

My Louisiana senior LEO informant says they are NOT using FBI cadets for these exercises, to preserve plausible deniability. Park ranger cadets, wildlife cadets, and especially "sworn" IRS cadets.

After several marches in the original instar, the PF morphed. The "uniforms" became non-uniform.

The first "march" in this livery, the local police in Western Maryland, in the turf of the original PF band, magically were at the right place at the right time to catch the Patriot Front on their way to a march, but near an little-used public park that made a good undisturbed staging area. The local police tried, and failed, to prevent this event from being videoed and photographed. The occupants of the rental truck were detained, and all but one of them were unmasked, arrested and brought to trial. The list of the indited matched the original Patriot Front membership list.

After this, the trend to similar but not identical uniforms continued, the marching became sloppy, some marchers showed their faces, the marches tended to occur just after ads for crisis actors, and the behavior became more belligerent and undisciplined.
I call this this the "SPLC phase".

Is the Patriot Front still under Deep State supervision? Is one of the named-as-suspicious high officials in charge? I don't know. But the day-to-day and financing are now, IMHO, in the hands of the SPLC or some similar/linked NGO.

[Seattle Extremist @SeattleIndepen1]

How do you know Patriot Front is fake?

If they were legit, the media would be in a feeding frenzy to find out who is funding them, there would be endless efforts to infiltrate with hidden cameras to capture compromising and embarrassing conversations, relentless efforts to dox members.

There isn’t.

Which means it’s a protected psyop.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@Jringo1508 No.

Next year youre welcome to come with us. Ask Miriam to show you the vids I posted of what you missed.

;)

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@MikeSouthWestUK @MarkBidwell55 @IronDuk05186191 @Cowpox04 Then we get to the biggie - the western front. I'll freely grant - 80% of the British landings on DDay were done from British bottoms. By January?
>75% of all allied ground forces were US units. Air cover? Samesame. Logistics? >80% ran on US gear, transporting US supplies.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@MikeSouthWestUK @MarkBidwell55 @IronDuk05186191 @Cowpox04 Yeah, so let's have a look at that, shall we?

(1) 1940. Dunkirk. You manage to leave lets call it 75% of your functioning artillery and armor on the beaches of France. You had to beg Americans to GIVE you small arms to equip your own home guard (which you repaid by sinking them)

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@MikeSouthWestUK @MarkBidwell55 @IronDuk05186191 @Cowpox04 (3) Lend Lease: The US supplied approx 50% of all tanks in the British army from 1939-1945. Combat aircraft? Approx 25% of all British combat aircraft came from the US. 60% of US lend lease went to the UK. Warships? That's significant. Production support? Huge.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@MikeSouthWestUK @MarkBidwell55 @IronDuk05186191 @Cowpox04 (2) 1942 El Alamein: Not viable until 500 US M4 Shermans - stripped from US units - were sent over. 70% of the tank force was built in the US. Roughly 1/2 the Desert Air force fighter strength was US P-40s.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@IronDuk05186191 It's not offensive. What you've allowed your country to become is offensive to any reasonable person.

I'd say any reasonable people would take Labour out and hang them by the neck, but we've still got Democrats ruining California.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@DrewPavlou @Tom_Rowsell I've commented in the past on US vs Aus vs UK crime stats. To sum up - in the last 30 years - US down ~50% across the board. Aus up 30+% . UK up, in some stats, >500%. We're literally at multiples of you for income equivalency over the same timeframe.

[Charles Prael @cprael]

@DrewPavlou The community college near me has a nuclear power operators program. In a community college. Free to local state residents.

Yeah, you guys are cucked. Sorry, but it's true. Stand up and take back your rights.