CrabCapitalist

Hard shell, sharp claws. Just a reply guy executing his get-rich-slow scheme in this cyberpunk dystopia. NIA & DYOR.

[F @Fabian_v4]

Elon is a trillionaire with 69B in 2028 Ebitda between all of his dogshit businesses

Truly the greatest financial engineer of our time

[greg @greg16676935420]

I’m gonna tell my kids this was the worlds first trillionaire

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@digital_in_blue Must be lonely all the way up there on your pedestal

[George Noble @gnoble79]

I was 26 years old when Peter Lynch handed me this.

April 28, 1983. I was the auto and retail analyst at Fidelity.

Peter was in his prime, on his way to building the greatest mutual fund track record in history:

29.2% annual returns for 13 YEARS STRAIGHT, growing Magellan from $18 million to $14 billion. The Babe Ruth of investing.

I'm looking at the principles he had typed up on a single sheet of paper that I've kept in my files for 42 years and I believe now is the perfect time to revisit them again.

Let me walk you through a few:

Rule 1B: "You need an edge to make money. Do not rely on a combination of hope and good luck."

Today's retail investor has no edge. He has Reddit, Robinhood, zero-DTE options and a TikTok algorithm pushing him into whatever stock just ripped 200% the day before.

That's hope and good luck wearing a fancy costume.

Rule 1E: "Purchase stocks like one would purchase a business."

Tesla trades at over 360 times earnings on a business deteriorating in real time, Oracle has $206 billion in liabilities against $39 billion in equity, MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin holding company priced like a software firm, and don't even get me started on SpaceX, that piece of garbage you'll be able to trade tomorrow...

Nobody in their right mind would buy these as actual businesses. They buy them as stories, narratives, and lottery tickets.

Peter would have called it the same way I do - these are not investments. They are speculations. GAMBLING.

Rule 1G: "Study the balance sheet and cash flow statement."

The hyperscalers spent over $380 billion on AI capex in 2025. Goldman says the measurable productivity payoff does not arrive until 2027 at the earliest.

Oracle just reported NEGATIVE $23.7 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 while borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. The cash flow statements are screaming but nobody is reading them.

Rule 1I: "Avoid the long shot."

This one cuts the deepest.

The entire market has become a long shot.

OpenAI is projected to post roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 ALONE while priced for transformation tomorrow. Bitcoin treasury companies are multiplying off thin air.

The retail investor of 2026 is making one long-shot bet after another and calling it a portfolio.

Rule 3A: "When the fundamentals change, sell your mistakes."

Tesla's fundamentals have changed.

California registrations are down 24% year over year and inventory days went from 10 to 27. Musk himself admitted on the last earnings call that Hardware 3 cannot achieve unsupervised FSD, breaking a promise made to 4 million customers.

The fundamentals have screamed change. But the stock is still at $385.

The mistakes are not being sold. They are literally being doubled down on with leverage.

Rule 3I: "A 30-50% profit in 12 months is great. Mediocre in three years."

Today's retail crowd expects 30-50% in a WEEK. Then they wonder why they get wiped out the second the hype stops.

And my favorite - Rule 3J: "Develop your own style and stick to it."

That is the entire game right there.

I developed mine sitting across the hall from Peter Lynch in 1983, watching him work, reading his notes, getting my own research handed back to me covered in his pencil marks. Then in 1984, my first full year managing money, I ran the #1 mutual fund in America. The Fidelity Overseas Fund was top 2 for the next six years running.

I did not get there by chasing narratives. I got there by following the sheet of paper you are looking at right now.

42 years later, this single page contains more wisdom than every Fintwit thread, CNBC segment, and Wall Street price target combined.

Peter retired in 1990 with the greatest mutual fund record in history. Then he sat down and wrote books explaining exactly how he did it.

Only a few "investors" these days read them.

And almost nobody is reading the balance sheets, the cash flow statements, or studying actual businesses today either.

They are chasing AI, crypto, and whatever pumped yesterday.

The wisdom on this page is timeless and it's more important than ever.

[Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd]

Technology has outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 167% cumulatively over the last decade +.

Every other sector is either flat or has underperformed.

Valuation Dispersion Is Extreme: The opportunity is increasingly outside technology, because that's where nearly all of the relative underperformance (and therefore potential mean reversion) has accumulated over the last decade.

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@Spoonsforme @PolitlcsGlobal @TheAthleticFC I understand. I guess I’m saying that’s it’s so far away that it’s irrelevant. Would be like if the team was staying at Buckingham Palace and the shooting occurred in Camden Town.

Hardly a risk of anyone catching a stray…

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@PenPizzaReport Trump is at the Knicks game, so yeah, they’re gonna be monitoring the situation

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

The story is about a shooting on Troost Ave in KC.

There is a shooting on Troost with multiple injuries at least three times a week lmao. It is one of the worst / most dangerous neighborhoods in the whole state of Missouri.

Moreover, the players are staying nowhere near this area.

Yes, guns are a problem. This is also a trash headline.

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

There is a shooting on Troost with multiple injuries at least three times a week lmao. It is one of the worst / most dangerous neighborhoods in the whole state of Missouri.

Moreover, the players are staying nowhere near this area.

Yes, guns are a problem. This is also a trash headline.

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@negligible_cap We should really start putting the lead analysts’ name in these types of headlines.

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@negligible_cap Clown show

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@Hedgeye @calvinfroedge Respectfully, these point-based facts are so fucking retarded. Plz fix thx.

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@McClellanOsc The herd level is at all time lows. Cattle take several years to rear & reproduce. The tradeoff a farmer must make is to slaughter & sell or keep for another year.

They’re choosing to cash out bc everything is so expensive.

Correlation does not imply causation!! Do better.

[Ben Norton @BenjaminNorton]

The world's richest centi-billionaire oligarch used his power to change the rules, so he could dump his garbage company (which is cartoonishly overvalued, unprofitable, and incinerating cash) on retail investors, using trillions of dollars in retirement funds as exit liquidity, all in order to become the first trillionaire.

This is the perfect metaphor for the US economy as a whole, which is entirely based on bubbles and scams.

[David Wells @DavidWells]

The AI ponzi scheme goes like this:

Everyone is generating all these long ass docs and then passing them off for others to read

Then the person receiving is like, wtf this is way too long, and hands that into an AI to read and summarize

Then they are generating a long ass response back

and this cycle goes like that forever. and we call this work now 😅

The token lords watch this from their towers nodding and grinning.

[Dow @mark_dow]

Trump has won this war 7 times.

He’s negotiated a peace settlement 12 times.

And he’s opened the Strait of Hormuz at least 4 times.

What more do you want from him?

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

lmao
>irrevocably fucks up the us political system
>leaves

[CrabCapitalist @crabcapitalist]

@litcapital I mean the S-1 release did not go well for them……

[Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing]

I don’t think we have a functioning CDC anymore—RFK Jr’s CDC is now asking volunteers to goto airports to screen passengers for Ebola… to stand in line at airports to look for sick people… unpaid.