Avitry 🥷

(🐔) #wearestrange

[Avitry 🥷 @crazycryptotra1]

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[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Just like all prior cycles. Current drawdown from 2022-26 crypto Cycle -

ETH - 69%
XRP - 71%
LTC - 72%
Link - 77%
SOL - 79%
SUI - 87%
ADA - 88%
AVAX - 90%

Way oversold, due a bounce, but all potentially have up to 50% declines left in them this year.

[ChiefraT @ChiefraFba]

RSI double bottom marked $BTC bottom in 2022.

Now we have bullish divergence in 2026 👀

[Lookonchain @lookonchain]

Trader predictorxyz (possibly an insider) bet $65.8K that Axiom would be accused of insider trading by @zachxbt when the odds were only 13.8%.

He won and made a profit of $411.4K!

https://t.co/HqhvH1BRpJ

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

ADP: U.S. Private Employers Added Average of 7,750 Jobs Per Week for Four Weeks Ended Jan. 3

ADP: U.S. Job Gains Edged Down for Third Straight Week

[Sminston With 👁 @sminston_with]

Bitcoin / Macro Crystal Ball 🔮
- - -
Two indicators, one message. The Cu/Au ratio tracks global risk appetite, ISM PMI captures the manufacturing cycle. Both normalized to z-scores against BTC. The correlation tells us Bitcoin moves with macro, never against it for too long...

Cu/Au ratio remains deeply negative without reversal, while BTC remains elevated and grinding; is it divergence (Bitcoin has truly gone through a 'bull' market and is now cooling off), or has it simply been moving along its power law support, while getting excited, and looking for a catalyst but lacking one from macro? Latter.

ISM is recovering from its trough, just very slowly; and BTC is tracking alongside. One pops, they both do.

As far as a bullish transition, both indicators point to it being around the corner - NOT a BTC top. This party hasn't started yet, but it's about to.

The macro picture will resolve, it always does. Position accordingly.

-Smitty

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

$BTC

Pressing range highs here.

Time to pay attention!

[Mac 🐺 @MacnBTC]

weekly MFI started curling up on $BTC, observing

[Solid Intel 📡 @solidintel_x]

INTEL: U.S. CONSIDERS PAYING GREENLANDERS $10,000–$100,000 EACH TO SUPPORT SECESSION FROM DENMARK

[Solid Intel 📡 @solidintel_x]

INTEL: The Federal Reserve conducted a $13.5B overnight repo operation on December 1, marking one of the largest liquidity injections since the COVID period

[Lookonchain @lookonchain]

Dec 1 Update:

#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +592 $BTC(+$51.15M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +2,984 $BTC(+$257.71M)🟢

#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +25,800 $ETH(+$72.83M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +106,212 $ETH(+$299.84M)🟢

#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +83,144 $SOL(+$10.52M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +773,311 $SOL(+$97.82M)🟢
https://t.co/X2VrlIpinX

[CryptoQuant.com @cryptoquant_com]

Binance Reserve Ratio Smashes 2018 Historical Low

“History shows that hitting such lows often precedes powerful Bitcoin rallies, simply because the liquidity required to fuel a price surge is now fully available on the exchange.” – By @CryptoOnchain

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

$BTC weekly EMA 8 vs 34

Have not crossed since we bottomed in Dec 2022

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

$BTC now 4H tweezer bottom, with hammer. At HTF key pivot circa WSMA 50, lower BB dip (weekly)

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

$BTC daily further DMA 200 test with clear throwback to prior range peak

Bullish above this level unquestionably

[EliZ @eliz883]

I want to explain the situation in two simple words

1 the altcoins market is completely different from the one of 2021/2023, now there are too many names emerging every day compromising even those very small names that have a small sense of existence

2 99% of altcoins are useless and make no sense except for speculation and making money if you can

3 liquidity still isn't moving to huge risk assets because capital injection hasn't happened, example (quantitave easing hasn't been activated by fed) that's why you see capital moving to few names prettamnte btc and eth

4 even CT is toxic full of shit and accounts that do nothing but post useless and meaningless things, before there was much more selection, we were here to do
really trading and compare ourselves with much more mature and serious people

5 be objective and don't fall in love with any name! learn to profit because most of the names out here are just crap where we can only speculate!

6 to conclude you will only see your worthless coins pumping if capital moves to hyperspeculative and high risk assets (like altcoins or commodities) and only the fed and monetary policies can do that

hope this is useful for an objective view

P.S. I wish everyone success in achieving their goals! But I'll be honest, it's harder now than it used to be.

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

The wait is over!

Introducing... 🥁

Bitcoin Quantile Model v2.

You’re going to want to bookmark this post—and follow for regular model updates.

After months of research and development, I’m very proud of this model—my flagship quantile framework.

I’m confident it’s one of the best—if not the best—long-term Bitcoin investment frameworks available.

As a full-time, unpaid Bitcoin researcher, I’m often asked how people can best support my free content.

Simply bookmark, repost, and comment on my posts :)

Thanks for all your continued support!

— PlanC

Key Features & Improvements:

1. Quantile lines never cross—mathematically impossible.

2. Cycle-length agnostic.

3. 133,000+ data points and 1,500 lines of code.

4. Fits and stores 999 quantile levels (τ = 0.001–0.999 in 0.001 steps) and identifies which level the last price is closest to.

5. Fits the two leading decay functions (stretched exponential decay & exponential decay) and selects the better fit via quantile-appropriate AIC.

Uses Akaike weights to identify the best-supported model.

Akaike weights (AIC-based):
Stretched exponential decay: 96.4%
Exponential decay: 3.6%

6. Piecewise Quantile Regression — Linear + Stretched Exponential Decay (Nonlinear).

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Bitcoin’s weekly cycle is still OK.

But we have to be as impartial as possible, and this current price action is not good, at all. Especially for this phase of the 4 yr cycle.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Gold/silver should be just a week or two now from a big local top. Followed by a good selloff then 3-6 month basing.

But we’re still ‘earlyish’ in a broader trend for metals. Metals will go through a couple more phases like the past 12 months.

[Avitry 🥷 @crazycryptotra1]

@eliz883 Thanks Eliz!

TKa9r5qXGDBsuKF2mhV7xyoG8Vdz7uhSGT

[Avitry 🥷 @crazycryptotra1]

@eliz883 👋 TKa9r5qXGDBsuKF2mhV7xyoG8Vdz7uhSGT