@rushtropicalwx Yeah but this chart only has the Nino 3.4 regions about +1.2°C above average come July. We are just about there now. Seems like it’s slightly lagging behind
@CycloforumsPR I can see 5-10. I can also see a crazy ratio like 6:1 for eastern named storms to Atlantic named storms this year. Going to be insanely quiet. Maybe the most quiet since 1997
After about a month of near stationary Nino 3.4 SSTs we are on the move again. Nino 3.4 is the coolest of the Nino regions and it’s almost +1.0°C. This is escalating fast but El Niño designation always lags a couple months but let’s be real we are already at weak/moderate El Niño
While not likely at all we have to watch the gulf spot over the next 24-48 hours. Chances way below 10% which is why nothing from NHC , but not 0%.
I’d give it a solid 1-3% 😂