Creed

Charts & Art

Writes, Trades & Creates.

#BTC #ICP #8YearGang #Crypto

[Creed @Creedtalks]

How it felt buying $ICP throughout the great decline and bear market...

[Creed @Creedtalks]

Workflows seem to be collapsing into single interfaces like Claude which in many cases reduce other tools to apis behind agents.

Curious how caffeine / dfinity are thinking about this, is the plan to compete with interfaces like anthropic’s Claude or is their space to position caffeine/ICP as the execution layer where agents deploy and run secure, tamper-proof apps?

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Everyone thinks the crypto selloff is crypto-native. The real story is a TradFi entity running a multi-leg carry trade that unwound.

Follow the funding chain. A HK entity borrows yen at 0.75% (the BOJ’s highest rate in 30 years, up from near-zero). Uses that cheap leverage to build a multi-leg position across IBIT options, Binance crypto, and precious metals. Three asset classes, one funding currency, zero margin for error.

Oct 10 was the first crack: $19.16B in crypto liquidations, the largest single-day wipeout ever. Prime broker gives them 90 days to recover. So they double down on precious metals, which had been ripping. Gold and silver were up 65% and 145% respectively in 2025. Looked like a reasonable recovery bet.

Then Kevin Warsh gets nominated as Fed Chair on Jan 29. Markets read that as hawkish dollar policy. Gold drops 11%. Silver drops 31% in its worst day since 1980. The recovery trade is now a second hole in the balance sheet.

Feb 5 was the margin call heard across three asset classes simultaneously. IBIT traded $10B in volume (284 million shares, shattering its prior record). Put options hit 25 volatility points above calls, the highest skew ever recorded. Silver plunged another 20% to below $71 before bouncing. Bitcoin fell from $73,100 to $62,400 intraday, its first time below $70K in 15 months.

Here’s what most people are missing. Nasdaq removed position limits on IBIT options in January 2026. That regulatory change allowed exactly this kind of concentrated leveraged exposure to build up in a single ETF. One entity could now take a position large enough to move the entire market on unwind.

The 13F filings drop Feb 14. That’s when we’ll see which single-asset funds based in Hong Kong were holding outsized IBIT positions. But the story isn’t who. The story is the plumbing.

Cheap yen funded the trade. IBIT options concentrated the risk. Precious metals were supposed to be the hedge. When all three legs failed in sequence, the forced selling cascaded across crypto, metals, and options simultaneously. Michael Burry called this a “collateral death spiral” earlier this week, where falling crypto collateral forces liquidation of metals positions, which triggers more margin calls, which forces more crypto selling.

This is what happens when carry trade leverage meets concentrated ETF options meets thin commodity liquidity. Three separate markets, one funding source, and when the music stops, they all sell at once.

The crypto market crashed because a currency trade went wrong on the other side of the Pacific, and the new ETF options infrastructure made it possible to concentrate that bet at a scale that could move $10B in a single session.

[sophia dew @sodofi_]

what happens when you give an agent a wallet?

this is the story of @clawdbotatg

[chimp @chimpp]

When your portfolio hits zero and you have no more money left to lose

[dom | icp @dominic_w]

A new DFINITY white paper proposing how #Mission70 (to reduce ICP inflation 70% during 2026) can be won, shall be published next Wednesday, 14th Jan. Soon after we will create an NNS proposal. Forward ICP 🔥

[Somto Okonkwo @General_Somto]

How a Biker Emmanuel Enya, While Traveling To Lagos, Saved a Pregnant Woman Who Went Into Labor On The Road. As People And Cars Passed By And Ignored Her, Emmanuel Stopped And Helped Her Deliver The Baby Right There:

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

My feed has lots of bears and bulls.

Bears gloating that the top was obvious and if you didn’t make money you’re an idiot.

Bulls drawing arrows straight to $150k+ saying the bull markets just warming up.

Everyone here is talking their own book.

Trading based on social media sentiment doesn’t work, it’s subjective and not properly quantifiable.

Just use the chart, have your levels of invalidation and live with the results.

It’s your money you’re risking.

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

Reason for drawing the trend line as below:

Trend lines are tricky. Because a trend line is not a fixed level (a moving one) the market does not have memory as in a horizontal one. So the breach of it needs to be followed by a strong price action to convince me that actually market recognized the level. When drawing trend lines and pattern boundaries I follow best fit principles with the most points touching the trendline. Best fit principle + the overlap of trend line at 109K horizontal support + sharp price action around the trend line breach = increases the validity of the trend line the way I drew.

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

Keep it simple. Focus on select few old school patterns. Select those that breakout through horizontal boundaries. Make peace with failed breakouts. Capture strong directional moves. Manage risk with trailing stops. Enjoy trading.

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

I find it really unfortunate for those who attack/criticize and mock the names we chartists give to patterns.

I worked with many sceptics over the years. Their first experience with charts was wrong. Charts failed them because they were thought the wrong way.

They were promised that charts can predict. (wrong)
Their investment time frames and the time frame of the charts did not match. A portfolio manager that was rebalancing their portfolio on a monthly basis was looking at daily charts. (wrong)
They thought that charts patterns form on all instruments, all the time. (wrong)

Patterns are periods of orderly price action on random price movements. Occasionally you will capture these widely recognized and respected consolidations on price charts which can help with participating in the following directional movement. Note: 3 days of directional movement for a monthly scale investor is meaningless. Make sure your investment horizon match the scale of the chart you are looking at.

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

People would blindly top blast memes up 100x with no product but now will write thesis papers on why buying an altcoin up 2x with liquidity after a year long bear market is risky.

[Yuchen Jin @Yuchenj_UW]

If Kimi K2 Thinking was truly trained with only $4.6 million, the close AI labs are cooked.

[cevo @cryptocevo]

Rotation out of meme coins and into utility coins. The market is healing. Finally

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

@bagsheera But 20 million meme coins launching and pumping and dumping was bullish right?

[Creed @Creedtalks]

We still here? 👀 #ICP

[Creed @Creedtalks]

How it felt buying $ICP throughout the great decline and bear market...

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

Wild to see $ICP doing 1.3 billion in volume in 24 hours. 8th most in all of crypto excluding stable coins.

[Creed @Creedtalks]

@Nebraskangooner What if it’s always been a bull flag #icp

[Ounka @OunkaOnX]

This clip’s from 2008, a reminder that it didn’t start in 2023.

[👑𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗷𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗵🌴🥥 @_kingjonah]

He just explained relationship in a very deep definition 😂😂

[H*****Z @Hz___143]

His face🤣🤣🤣