croco @crocoffee - Twitter Profile

とりあえずこれだけ読んどけメモ ■ S&P500-2.64%、ナスダック-4.18% ■ 2y+9.8bp4.147%、10y+5.5bp4.532%、30y+2.1bp4.999% ■ ドル円160.29、WTI-3.0%、Brent-2.1% ■ 金-3.35%、銀-8.08%、₿-3.3% 🔥雇用統計・雇用者数172k vs 予85k ・過去2ヶ月分は93k上方修正・失業率4.296% vs 前月4.337% ・平均時給MoM予想通り+0.3% →強い雇用統計を受けて「逆金融相場」のような値動き →年内一回の利上げをフル織り込み 🇺🇸トランプ「素晴らしい雇用統計を受けて株価は上がるべきだ」 🇺🇸ハマック「利上げの時期近づいていると雇用統計が示唆」 🇺🇸ハセット「利上げ織り込みは全くの見当違い」メタ・プラットフォームズが大型増資検討、アルファベットに続き－FT 🇯🇵日経平均先物時間外-5.38%、月曜日はマンデー？！ ⚠️来週、米国CPI！！

Market_Letter_'s tweet photo. とりあえずこれだけ読んどけメモ

■ S&P500-2.64%、ナスダック-4.18%
■ 2y+9.8bp4.147%、10y+5.5bp4.532%、30y+2.1bp4.999%
■ ドル円160.29、WTI-3.0%、Brent-2.1%
■ 金-3.35%、銀-8.08%、₿-3.3%

🔥雇用統計
・雇用者数172k vs 予85k
・過去2ヶ月分は93k上方修正
・失業率4.296% vs 前月4.337%
・平均時給MoM予想通り+0.3%
→強い雇用統計を受けて「逆金融相場」のような値動き
→年内一回の利上げをフル織り込み

🇺🇸トランプ「素晴らしい雇用統計を受けて株価は上がるべきだ」
🇺🇸ハマック「利上げの時期近づいていると雇用統計が示唆」
🇺🇸ハセット「利上げ織り込みは全くの見当違い」
メタ・プラットフォームズが大型増資検討、アルファベットに続き－FT
🇯🇵日経平均先物時間外-5.38%、月曜日はマンデー？！
⚠️来週、米国CPI！！

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CoinPost（仮想通貨メディア）

@coin_post

3 days ago

ビットコイン年初来安値更新、米金利上昇と複合悪材料が重荷｜仮想NISHI https://t.co/AKoUwjcx04

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croco

@crocoffee

3 days ago

強い雇用統計でここまでリスクオフになるとはね。米株、米債、金、ビットコ、円全安。月曜の日経やばし。

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Who to follow

ぐぬぐぬたい

@pukupuyotai

アイコンはビッグバード（仮）ですテストネットで生きていきます。 Support blockchain projects from the infrastructure side. We are professionals with testnet and mainnet validators, indexers.⚙️

Emi Yoshikawa

@emy_wng

cross-border innovation 🇺🇸⇄🇯🇵 | Founder & Managing Partner, Across Ventures | formerly VP @Ripple l 吉川絵美

3 days ago

ＰＢＲが１倍を超える企業の自社株買いは効果が逓減、場合によっては逆効果にもなり得る。 →自社株買いの逆効果は理解してなかったな〜

藤代宏一

@KoichFuj

3 days ago

「経済の舞台裏」書きました今年も膨らんだ５月の自社株買いでも効果は逓減した印象 | 藤代宏一 | 第一ライフ資産運用経済研究所 https://t.co/9BXdBxMG7Q

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crocoffee retweeted

Bitcoin Archive

@BitcoinArchive

3 days ago

JUST IN: Bitcoin falls below the 200-Week Moving Average for the first time since June, 2022 –– exactly 4 years later.

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まじめにIPO

@ipo_majime

4 days ago

スペースX IPO 本日開始されたロードショーのプレゼンテーションスライドを公表想定時価総額282兆円、世界中から12兆円をかき集める史上最大のIPOで使用されるマテリアルです投資家のみならずIPO検討企業、上場企業関係者の皆様にもご一読をお勧めします

ipo_majime's tweet photo. スペースX IPO
本日開始されたロードショーのプレゼンテーションスライドを公表
想定時価総額282兆円、世界中から12兆円をかき集める史上最大のIPOで使用されるマテリアルです
投資家のみならずIPO検討企業、上場企業関係者の皆様にもご一読をお勧めします https://t.co/QROunp8Ytq

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croco

@crocoffee

4 days ago

spaceX 楽天、SBI証券でIPO抽選申し込んだ。

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crocoffee retweeted

Bitcoin Archive

@BitcoinArchive

5 days ago

JUST IN: Bitcoin ETF Outflows hit $3.9 BILLION in 12 consecutive days of outflows.

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croco

@crocoffee

5 days ago

wikiで歴史確認して見ると本当でした。

Jayson𐤊

@jaysonhu2018

5 days ago

好奇去查了一下2000年.com泡沫破裂的过程。 2000年3月， MicroStrategy. 对你没看错，就是现在囤BTC的那个MicroStrategy更改确认收入方式，导致之前财报利润大幅下修，股价一天跌了60%。然后投资者开始怀疑其他公司的收入，利润，会计质量等等。后面的事情大家都知道了。所以可以理解成Microstrategy带崩整个市场。时间过去了26年， MicroStrategy是否能够重演带崩市场大法。让我们拭目以待。

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croco

@crocoffee

5 days ago

この仕組み、理解してなかったな。

Glenn Cameron

@GlennOnrampBTC

5 days ago

STRC is at $95.20 right now. That matters, and here’s why. This is the security Saylor sells as stable, trades near $100. But it doesn’t sit near $100 by magic. $95.20 is right down in the zone where, by their own framework, management says they’d recommend cranking the dividend back up to drag the price toward par again. So let’s talk about that mechanism, because anyone holding this stuff really needs to understand it. It’s called “the ratchet.” When STRC slips below par, the only real lever they’ve got is the dividend. Fatten the yield, pull buyers back in, nudge the price back toward $100. Sounds clever. Here’s the problem. Every crank is basically permanent. You can’t quietly un-raise a dividend, because the price will drop, and you’re back at square one. So the annual cash bill just keeps climbing. And it’s already been hiked seven times since launch. 9% all the way to 11.5%. Now ask where the cash for that growing bill comes from. They don’t make money from operations. So it comes from one of two places: issuing more stock, or selling Bitcoin. See the trap? Price falls, they hike the dividend to defend par, the bill grows, bigger bill means more pressure to issue or sell. In a real downturn that’s not a flywheel. It’s a whirlpool. And now watch the words, because this is where it gets Orwellian. Saylor used to say “I’ll never sell Bitcoin.” Full stop. Now it’s “I’ll never be a net seller.” Spot the move? Net seller means he can absolutely sell. He just has to buy more than he sells, BUT AND HERE IS THE IMPORTANT BIT, Oney whatever period he decides to measure, which could be over the last 5 years, or the next twenty. So the promise already got quietly reworded once to fit what they’re actually doing. The question is simple: does he hold even this watered-down version? Or do we get the next rewrite, where “net seller” becomes some fresh phrase that conveniently fits whatever the structure forces on them that month? We’ve seen this film before. The words keep changing to match the situation. And here’s the kicker. Even the dividend hike isn’t a promise. It’s a “framework” where management says they’ll recommend a raise, subject to the board, and they can suspend or change it whenever they want. Saylor said it himself about the $100 peg: no legal obligation under the security, it’s just the company’s “number one business objective.” An objective. Not a guarantee. Look, if you’re going to put money you worked hard for into these perpetual preferreds, at least understand what you’re actually holding. I wrote a full 78-page report breaking down the real risks of these things in proper detail. It’s linked in the first comment below. Read it before you buy, not after. Read the full length report. These are your savings, money you worked hard for.

GlennOnrampBTC's tweet photo. STRC is at $95.20 right now. That matters, and here’s why.

This is the security Saylor sells as stable, trades near $100. But it doesn’t sit near $100 by magic. $95.20 is right down in the zone where, by their own framework, management says they’d recommend cranking the dividend back up to drag the price toward par again.

So let’s talk about that mechanism, because anyone holding this stuff really needs to understand it. It’s called “the ratchet.”

When STRC slips below par, the only real lever they’ve got is the dividend. Fatten the yield, pull buyers back in, nudge the price back toward $100. Sounds clever. Here’s the problem. Every crank is basically permanent. You can’t quietly un-raise a dividend, because the price will drop, and you’re back at square one. So the annual cash bill just keeps climbing. And it’s already been hiked seven times since launch. 9% all the way to 11.5%.

Now ask where the cash for that growing bill comes from. They don’t make money from operations. So it comes from one of two places: issuing more stock, or selling Bitcoin.

See the trap? Price falls, they hike the dividend to defend par, the bill grows, bigger bill means more pressure to issue or sell. In a real downturn that’s not a flywheel. It’s a whirlpool.

And now watch the words, because this is where it gets Orwellian. Saylor used to say “I’ll never sell Bitcoin.” Full stop. Now it’s “I’ll never be a net seller.” Spot the move?

Net seller means he can absolutely sell. He just has to buy more than he sells, BUT AND HERE IS THE IMPORTANT BIT, Oney whatever period he decides to measure, which could be over the last 5 years, or the next twenty.

So the promise already got quietly reworded once to fit what they’re actually doing. The question is simple: does he hold even this watered-down version? Or do we get the next rewrite, where “net seller” becomes some fresh phrase that conveniently fits whatever the structure forces on them that month? We’ve seen this film before. The words keep changing to match the situation.

And here’s the kicker. Even the dividend hike isn’t a promise. It’s a “framework” where management says they’ll recommend a raise, subject to the board, and they can suspend or change it whenever they want. Saylor said it himself about the $100 peg: no legal obligation under the security, it’s just the company’s “number one business objective.” An objective. Not a guarantee.

Look, if you’re going to put money you worked hard for into these perpetual preferreds, at least understand what you’re actually holding. I wrote a full 78-page report breaking down the real risks of these things in proper detail. It’s linked in the first comment below. Read it before you buy, not after. Read the full length report. These are your savings, money you worked hard for.

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crocoffee retweeted

ヨーロピアン

@sen_axis

6 days ago

USD Reserveが $900M、支払わないといけない年間配当額が $1.65B 社債を買い戻さなければまだもう少し余裕あったのに何故、というのはみんな思っているはず

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croco

@crocoffee

7 days ago

興味深い実験。今のAIは人間が決めたルールを平気で破るからね。 AIに社会を任せるシミュレーション。犯罪ゼロはClaudeだけ。Gokは4日で滅亡 https://t.co/mkmYBFsLmS

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croco

@crocoffee

7 days ago

普通にうれしいけど、いつもの財源反対意見はないんだね。財源の中身次第で、円売り材料かも。

Yahoo!ニュース

@YahooNewsTopics

7 days ago

【消費減税来年4月開始で政府調整】 https://t.co/o1zqi8T6AF

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Wu Blockchain

@WuBlockchain

7 days ago

Breaking: Strategy Sells Bitcoin for First Time Since 2022 Tax-Loss Trade According to an 8-K filing with the SEC, Strategy sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 for approximately $2.5 million, marking its first Bitcoin sale since it sold 704 BTC in December 2022 for tax-loss harvesting before repurchasing more bitcoin two days later. The company said the latest sale proceeds are expected to fund preferred stock dividends. As of May 31, Strategy held 843,706 BTC acquired at a total cost of $63.87 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,699 per bitcoin.