crop

[crop @crop0x]

1-2 hours sounds like a great farm opportunity. From what I see they have sth like a tiered list of markets and put rewards into those with high uncertainty (spike in vol/price mostly). Rewards often disappear in 3-5 mins (orderbook filled -> uncertainty decreases -> zero sense in rewards)

[crop @crop0x]

Often, a cheap YES buy is matched with an expensive NO buy between actual customers on both sides (prediction markets are customer vs. customer, not customer vs. house), so notional volume equals cashflow-based volume. Though it's true low-odds outcomes are the easiest way to inflate notional volumes (both for the venue and for airdrop farmers).

[crop @crop0x]

They're showing notional volume, not cashflow:
1. Spend $17 to buy 100 YES France shares at $0.17 = $100 notional volume
2. Spend $0.50 to buy 100 YES Uzbekistan shares at $0.005 = $100 notional volume

Btw, pretty often a cheap YES buy is matched with an expensive NO buy (e.g., $0.005/100 YES on Uzbekistan could be matched with $0.995/100 NO), so we'll have $100 cashflow-based volume as well

Same for the Presidential Nominees 2028 markets

[crop @crop0x]

@TheNotoriousSKi @trylimitless @1confirmation Limitless is a joke
https://t.co/Jo7sZEq8IO

[crop @crop0x]

Recipe for a “successful” prediction market:
1. Pick a few markets with <1% / >99% odds (eg https://t.co/ZPKibkJOds)
2. Run fast round-trip trades on the losing side (eg $6.5k → 1.5M shares → back)
3. Report “volume” in shares, not dollars
4. …
5. Congrats: ALL-TIME HIGH 🎉

[crop @crop0x]

Recipe for a “successful” prediction market:
1. Pick a few markets with <1% / >99% odds (eg https://t.co/ZPKibkJOds)
2. Run fast round-trip trades on the losing side (eg $6.5k → 1.5M shares → back)
3. Report “volume” in shares, not dollars
4. …
5. Congrats: ALL-TIME HIGH 🎉

[Limitless @trylimitless]

We hit a new all-time high in daily volume (yes, again)

$163 million traded in a single day

How's your week going?

[crop @crop0x]

@Autonomous_Chad @Polymarket Wait, do you mean attention cow markets are just a hook to funnel gamblers into the casino (fast crypto/finance markets, sports)?

[crop @crop0x]

@CarOnPolymarket Just wanna remind you, Polymarket/UMA didn't even recognize he won the election https://t.co/p2TE00C1hh

[crop @crop0x]

So do we define gambling by the system’s structure or by users’ behavior?

I mean, people make plenty of random, uninformed bets on PMs (not that far from slot machines) - should we call that gambling? Or not, just because the same action happens via an information system with incentives instead of a slot machine?

Right now, ~80% of what we call PMs is basically entertainment without information gain (sports bets, up/down markets, etc.), driven by corresponding user behavior. And even when there is information gain, gambling still happens - and in some sense, even fuels these "useful" markets.

[crop @crop0x]

@token_ventures Definitely should add @sybil_pm

[crop @crop0x]

@hrkrshnn @claudeai my claude refused to use your skill :D

[crop @crop0x]

@ruthybuilds @surgence_io @sybil_pm is building the first FBA-based PM.

[pdata.world @pdataworld]

Great data analysis! Must read/watch if you’re into PMs.

[crop @crop0x]

@datadashboards Hmm you sure about this number? We have tens of millions coming every day from nonsense markets, Kim Kardashian as next nominee (YES at $0.008) have $1m today.

[crop @crop0x]

@trylimitless You talking about these stock markets?

[crop @crop0x]

the whole “article” is a combo of ai slop and scam promotion, shame on you @BarterDeFi
1. “2% taken from winning positions at resolution” — not true
2. “three cases documented on-chain and on X” — you don’t give links to the actual cases, and the X accounts you mentioned are selling shit with AI-generated posts (like “How I publicly turned $150 into $32.7k on copy trading”)
3. the “HFT-like front-running bots” part is just ridiculous
4. Polymarket’s “open-source AI agent framework” is 2 years old, kinda outdated

[crop @crop0x]

@j0hnwang @KalshiTrade wait, but we already have Binance, Coinbase, etc. to trade crypto

[crop @crop0x]

@floriandarroman @nikitabier did you find a way to communicate with Gollum? he's literally trolling me and then ghosting