sando calrissian

yet another CT anon. crypto data analysis and shitposting. for SHLL model interactive charts

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

Quarterly update

I'm only providing the Pareto model this time, since it's shown itself as the more accurate of the two models

5th percentile is still around that mid $40k area, and it seems likely we get there by EOY, I'd say even if we end up turning on the money printer

If we do see expansion of the money supply, that would affect next cycle peak projections as the Pareto model is dependent on M2SL

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

Quarterly update

I'm only providing the Pareto model this time, since it's shown itself as the more accurate of the two models

5th percentile is still around that mid $40k area, and it seems likely we get there by EOY, I'd say even if we end up turning on the money printer

If we do see expansion of the money supply, that would affect next cycle peak projections as the Pareto model is dependent on M2SL

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

This is something I've been working on for some time now and I've been using to follow the progression of $BTC. This is influenced by @benjamincowen using the log-log regression model as well as @DeFi_initiate who applies seasonality.

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

Welp, it's been real

First charts are Pareto, second are SHLL

I was holding out hope for a push up to the $144k that I mentioned back in summer, but we never ended up getting there. As such I only closed out about 50% of my positions in total

If we get back to $100k, I think that may be my signal to close out the rest, but we'll see

If nothing else, I think this confirms Pareto model supremacy. Since I came up with it, it's had significantly more conservative estimates compared to the SHLL and others' models. And it was much closer to reality

Current bottom predictions for Dec 2026:
* Pareto: $56k, 5th percentile @ $45k
* SHLL: $94k, 5th percentile @ $53k

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

On a personal note, life has been fantastic. I'm in a relationship for the first time in years with a wonderful woman, work has been solid, gym gains have been fantastic (1RMs: 295lbs/425lbs for bench/squat), and keeping market/social media engagement to a minimum has been a massive boon to my mental health

Hope y'all are doing well, and I'm wishing you happy holidays

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

@MonkeyCharts @Pancakesbrah There is a way. Stay strong, brother

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

I'll probably stay busy outside of X, but I'll get the models/website updates on a cron job so they're done more regularly

The Coin Metrics historical data continues to update daily, the next task may be to finally get that out on Github for folks

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

*better first two charts

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

Check prices
Bad prices
We go gym

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

I read this within the context of the current meta and I think it made me understand the meme coin grifting better at a generational level

My zoomer friendos, BTC is a barbell enough strategy. Don't let hype and social media convince you that shitters are the only way out

Patience and majors will get you there in time

[Kyla Scanlon @kylascan]

I've spent the last 8 months traveling to 20+ states, talking to young people about how they see their economic futures. I wrote about my findings (link below).

Gen Z faces a double disruption: (1) AI-driven technological change + (2) institutional instability. When I talk to young people, they're not just worried about finding jobs, they're worried whether "careers" as we know them will exist in 5 years.

We're seeing a version of the barbell strategy in how young people approach their futures. On one end, people are choosing trades over college debt. On the other, people are betting everything on creator economy/crypto/AI startups etc etc. The middle path exists, but it's increasingly blurry.

This shapes identity. When a single viral TikTok can outperform a year's salary, and traditional credentials lose value faster than you can earn them, young people aren't just changing careers—they're developing fundamentally different relationships with economic reality.

When I talk to people across the country, their concerns are greater than traditional political divisions. They're wrestling with questions of identity, meaning, and community in a world where traditional narratives about success and stability no longer hold.

What looks like a conservative shift among young voters might actually be something more foundational: a generation's attempt to navigate a world where institutions promise stability they can't deliver, where algorithms offer opportunity without security, and where the very nature of work and worth is being redefined. It’s constantly evolving, and it’s not just politics - it’s the very nature of self being called into question. Link in next post.

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

@TRASHENSTEIN It's so bad! So much easier to just focus on other stuff and let this period pass

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

@MugabeV2 Welcome back king

[farp @farp_farp]

if they make a movie about this they will need to make everyone 80% less retarded just to make it remotely believable

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

I wasn't rugged by the president of Argentina and I set a PR on deadlifts

Today was a good day

[Reetika @ReetikaTrades]

Great news, first of many such things we see this year probably

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

@mdanesth @AWice Each person has a tax rate equal to their body fat percent

[sando calrissian @croque__m]

Spending most of the month in a 7% range but mental illness on the timeline is at ATHs

Gotta be close to a pump, right?