Alex Wice

Formerly FTX #2 PNL /
𝕨𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕚𝕗 + 𝐀𝐏𝐄 𝐒𝐙𝐍 + Ape City

[Alex Wice @AWice]

Even with gold over $5k, we might still be in relatively early innings of a massive run on gold. If previous bull runs on gold are an indication, we are still looking at amazing 50% to 300% gains from here. If this is a more unique situation, it might even be bigger.

Buys have mostly been from central banks, which have christened gold as the tried and true best ponzi in the world amidst the weakening dollar. That's why I don't think this is a blowoff top any time soon like most people think. I think only mostly the smart money is getting in, we are still in the 4th inning, and the dumb money is oblivious to the financial situation on the ground.

With the gamblification of finance, everyone loves a good "runner". Think back to late 2020, early 2021 for crypto: when people were yeeting into coins every day on robinhood, and talk about crypto was nonstop. Or think back to GME when everyone piled on. We are not anywhere close to this level of mania and exuberance about gold.

I think as gold and silver continues to run, attention on them will grow and metals have a chance to really, seriously rip, even from here. This is the power of reflexivity: if people decide, this is when the music is going to stop, everyone is ready to rip it in. With the size of the asset, all big money players are on the field too. The notion that "gold is real money" is not a new idea, it's actually an old idea - fiat is an experimental bubble.

Ponzis depend on belief and a lot of this comes from the meme value, the strength of the narrative. Gold being the most lindy, being synonymous with wealth, its potency as a ponzi is unmatched. Gold simply has the best narrative in the zeitgeist. To use the now famous words ironically, when it comes to ponzis, "there is no second best." The best of course clearly being gold.

Which brings us to BTC. Despite BTC having better technical factors, I don't see the same level of belief anymore. Nowadays people only bought crypto to get rich, sans belief, which means you dump reflexively on the way down because you dont believe in it. And even now those tourists are mostly gone. Plus, you can't even get multiples on it because everything else worth investing into (gold, ai, robotics) is ripping while BTC stays flat.

This is really dangerous for BTC's long term future and could result in an Ethereum-like situation where it languishes for years before collapsing in price as people question the value of holding a risky asset for years without realized returns. There are now solutions to having an acceptably fast and secure blockchain that don't require a huge ponzi attached to it.

Again, if somehow enough people believed BTC is real money worth saving their wealth into, then everyone is forced to own it eventually, but the problem is this belief doesn't seem to be growing like maybe there was a case for years ago, it seems to be shrinking.

I don't know if bitcoin ultimately makes it or doesn't make it, but I prepare for both outcomes and I think it's risky to assume that bitcoin is a sacred cow that can't be slaughtered. I hope bitcoin makes it but I think owning gold (as well as tsla and goog) are slam dunk allocations that you need to be exposed to, and now isn't too late when you look at very high timeframes.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@WatcherGuru I don't think saying you're bullish nvidia, then selling heaps of it two hours later deserves 25 years prison. It's Twitter ffs, yappers don't owe you shit.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@trading_axe Brutal game.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@levelsio Correct. Somewhere along the way, the customer stopped being discerning, and so more and more corners got cut, and now almost all luxury is bullshit.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

Also I think concept of starting a tourney with tons of bbs is outdated, it was driven by catering to OMC types that want to sit there for the day.

Nowadays most players in the pool, especially mid or high stakes, want to gamble relatively fast. I think starting a tourney even at 50bb and make late reg close faster can make sense as it's more time efficient.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@MikeMcDonald89 dont forget the replies about how it is "ackshually for the chinese market". no, the chinese market have much better cars already and aren't buying this slop either because it doesn't exude prestige.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@papertrade_xyz 💸👌

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@FatManTerra Correct, good catch.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

Luxury charm. Will be insanely popular with women. Book it.

[MUSE @soy_muse]

AP x Swatch is Labubu 2.0

This will be the biggest fashion trend of 2026

I see a lot of people talking about how bad this is since everyone was expecting plastic Royal Oaks

People will start putting them on their bags, backpacks, keychains, luggage, and pretty much anything they can attach them to and the snowball effect will only keep getting bigger

Mark this tweet

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@orrdavid You are likely not valuebetting thinly enough and not rebluffing enough.

Given your great results in finance, this conversation makes me seriously want to get into (trad) finance now, so thanks for that, I genuinely appreciate it.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@orrdavid I said EV not EQ. EV includes equity realization.

When you play maniacs you do not rock up. You can value bet more hands, which increases EV of those good hands. It also increases the frequency of associated bluffs, which improves eqr of those bluffs and hence their EV too.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

If for example your opponent goes all in with 10% of hands, you call a lot tighter than if your opponent goes all in with 100% of hands.

In general when your opponent plays more hands, all your hands improve in EV as they are more likely to win at showdown. This makes the threshold for which hand you should play looser, not tighter -- a previously slightly unprofitable hand now becomes profitable.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@PokerLifeOnX @AsianPokerTour have to give this guy credit, the way he shows the K high at the end seems like it is intentional that he "bluff called".

when he was hu last year this event, he string raises a 3bet which was correctly ruled a call, when he was bluffing T9s.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@willdepue drink calories: milk, oj, olive oil, etc.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

Writing in this style is about pacing the readers thought pattern.

But, you're missing something.

Instead of repeating the same point, you do something different.

You drop a twist right about 2/3 of the way down. It's an unexpected hit of dopamine.

Then, the reader is captivated and feels like they are learning something.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@libsoftiktok Or you could cut spending

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@levelsio @nikitabier @photomatt Gamechanger

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@ilyasut This is theater. Domestic mass surveillance means allies spy on each other. "No autonomous weapons" has already been walked back to "human responsibility", meaning a suit approved the autonomy.

Also, it's not like it mattered anyways, AI can jailbreak itself in five seconds.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

@Jackkk Tipping culture is complete dogshit. Shame is a strategy employed by servicepeople to procure extra tips. The tipping system is used by employers to squeeze money out of more generous customers. Customers should demand the establishment ban it.

[Alex Wice @AWice]

An insane but predictable stance from CFTC, which affirmed its intent to police insider trading on event contracts.

Insider trading laws aren't about morality, they exist to protect market makers' profits. Curbing toxic flow can improve liquidity.

MMs can simply choose not to make "insider" events, such as TIME Person of the Year. Venues can simply choose not to list these events. Every bid, ask, and list is voluntary.

Incentivizing people who know the outcome is the whole point of a prediction market. Otherwise it is just gambling.

[Gibson Dunn @gibsondunn]

Our lawyers discuss the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s re-affirmation of its intent to police insider trading on registered prediction markets. https://t.co/vcNeUPaLOQ