Crossbow Analytics LLC

Providing tailored, timely analysis of CBW threats from state and non-state actors. RT ≠ endorsement. Crossbow Analytics LLC -- [email protected]

[Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv]

So all those Russian disinformation campaigns denying that Syria used chemical weapons, even paying popular western influencers to help, it was all lies.

Again and again. Russia lies like rivers run.

[Jean Pascal Zanders @JPZanders]

#BiologicalWeapons #Investigation #UNSGM
Report of a Workshop on Preparing for Biological Weapons Investigations in Non-Permissive Environments
https://t.co/TPV5pqiDc5

The Stimson Center’s Mission Ready project, funded by the U.S. Department of State, aims to identify and recommend measures to address specific training and capability gaps facing the UN Secretary General’s Mechanism (UNSGM) in preparing for investigations of alleged use of biological weapons (BW) in non-permissive environments (NPE). The Stimson project team convened a workshop in December 2025, bringing together negotiators, planners, and practitioners with direct experience in missions deployed to NPEs to examine how such environments might shape future UNSGM investigations of alleged BW attacks. This report synthesizes the workshop’s principal insights and recommendations for strengthening UNSGM preparedness, effectiveness, and resilience in carrying out investigations in NPEs.

[Jean Pascal Zanders @JPZanders]

#Poisoning #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar
Russian soldiers in Zaporizhzhya Oblast die en masse from poisoned alcohol
https://t.co/Oa1HVDawuM

In an intercepted conversation, two Russian soldiers discussed an observation post where many of their comrades, referred to as “200s” (killed in action), died from “blue” — a reference to toxic alcohol. One soldier recalled “a lot, a lot of 200s” at the site, while the other confirmed that eight to 10 bodies lay there, covered with sleeping bags but not evacuated for at least five or six days.
[...]

[Gary Ruskin @garyruskin]

Scientist says AI chatbot told him how to make biological weapons. Via @CNN
https://t.co/FCUekhIDd5

[Robert Petersen @RobertP48264217]

Poisoned baby food was part of attempted extortion, German producer says

https://t.co/XoG1A50gM1

[Robert Petersen @RobertP48264217]

Interview with Petro Andryushchenko regarding Ukrainian resistance (including use of poisoning) against the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine

https://t.co/Bp79FUy87e

[Crossbow Analytics LLC @CrossbowLlc]

@blumscientific @SynBio1 Article has a good many strong points, but several weaknesses. Concerned that much of the evidence is cherry picked, while ignoring contrary evidence. Agree with MMB. The constraining factors are weaponization, dissemination, and attack planning.

[Marc-Michael Blum @blumscientific]

@SynBio1 I agree with you critique of the article. However the key issue with AI is that it can make you „good enough“ in stages of your attack. You can forsure come up with a pathogen but weaponization and dissemination? Clandestine sourcing and work? Attack planning and logistics?

[Crossbow Analytics LLC @CrossbowLlc]

@JPZanders Yeah, no.

[Crossbow Analytics LLC @CrossbowLlc]

Excellent article by Naomi Rio on recent cases alongside historical records of CBW state-sponsored assassinations. Examines motivations driving states to resort to CBW in such operations and why these methods increasingly appeal to states. https://t.co/y4YZlU6C70

[Robert Petersen @RobertP48264217]

The Research Institute of Highly Pure Biopreparations (IHPP) in St. Petersburg is being modernized with military funding. It played a key role in the Soviet Biopreparat program. Vladimir Pasechnik did his BW research on IHPP.

https://t.co/wr1rf1xrMr

[Robert Petersen @RobertP48264217]

The new US Annual Threat Assessment and what it writes about CBW threats:

https://t.co/ln0IRInibh

[Jean Pascal Zanders @JPZanders]

#BiologicalWeapons #HybridWarfare #Biosecurity #China #USA
Two Illegal Biolabs Reveal Gaps in U.S. Biosecurity
https://t.co/jucv7VQn2s

Last month, law enforcement officials launched an investigation into a suspected biolab in the Las Vegas home of Chinese national Zhu Jia Bei. Two years prior, Zhu had been arrested and indicted for his involvement with a similarly unauthorized biolab in Reedley, California. He also maintains extensive connections to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Zhu may not be alone: CCP-linked biolabs on American soil raise serious concerns about foreign surveillance, intellectual property theft, and deliberate threats to public health and national security.
Zhu’s story brings to light an uncomfortable truth: U.S. policymakers seem to have little understanding of how many unauthorized biolabs are operating in the United States. They are unprepared to counter the biological hazards such labs may produce, putting Americans’ safety at risk. Policymakers must take immediate action to protect Americans and strengthen federal oversight of unauthorized biological research activity.
[...]

[Robert Petersen @RobertP48264217]

New book about Canada's contribution to BW research in the Second World War

https://t.co/n6l8KwxiM7

[Jean Pascal Zanders @JPZanders]

#ChemicalWeapons #BiologicalWeapons #Toxins #Epibatidine #Navalny
Toxins Are Not an Escalating Global Threat
https://t.co/YySwyF1vW6

[...]
Here’s my problem with the panel and their fishing expedition on describing the imminent threat of toxins. There’s no question that nation-states and sub-state groups can use toxins to advance their political objectives. We can agree to disagree as to the scale and impact of that threat, but certainly there are many other colorful ways through which authoritarian nations or radical groups can coerce, injure, or kill political targets or public figures. This should not lead to the conclusion that the U.S. government lacks particular capabilities or is at high risk because of this unique weapon type. [...]
You won’t get that perspective from the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense. For the most part, they didn’t ask any interesting or penetrating questions to identify policy issues, because they already knew what they wanted to say. They told us days before the panel met, as I mentioned above. This was a public demonstration meant to demonstrate concern but not to develop serious policy initiatives that could actually reduce the risk of toxin use. That’s because between the intelligence community, law enforcement, and the military services, the U.S. government can already address adversaries who cause deliberate biological attacks through current processes. Funding the CDC to better perform health surveillance is not a mystery. It would be an easy win for Congress to better fund the FDA and USDA to regulate food and crop industries, but they haven’t done that. That’s why I find this Commission frustrating, because given its membership and their past association with Congress, they already know this. So why the security theater? Because Big Pharma needs a public show?
[...]

[CBWNet @CBWNet]

🚨Out now! The new research article in Defense & Security Analysis by @DrAlexKelle and Malcolm R. Dando explores biodefence as a challenge to global norms against biological and toxin weapons and suggests a potential solution. Read the full paper here: https://t.co/WXSHUfHCdp

[RUSI @RUSI_org]

'State-sponsored assassinations, like the case of Navalny, play a prominent role in international politics. Assassinations via poisonings are no different.' write @bwiedwards and Dr Luca Trenta in the latest #RUSICommentary. https://t.co/SdkqdYTLYS

[Jean Pascal Zanders @JPZanders]

#BiologicalWeapons #ArtificialIntelligence #Governance
The Continued Overreaction to AI and Biotech
https://t.co/FKW5qMcbss

Here we go again. There seems to be no end of articles warning as to the impending use of artificial intelligence by disgruntled loners or violent groups to create the next pandemic or a novel bioengineered weapon using equipment bought on Amazon in their garage. I’m generally a skeptic at this point in time, after reviewing many stories as to the inadequacy of AI-generated products. Sure, these AI tools can do some pretty wild deep fakes and videos of things that never happened. But will they be the source for someone to unleash a new biological weapon? If so, what do we do about it?
[...]

[Robert Petersen @RobertP48264217]

Countering Iran’s Covert Chemical Weapons Program https://t.co/p250hHinqO

[Jean Pascal Zanders @JPZanders]

#BiologicalWeapons #Navalny #Poisoning #Russia #Toxin #Epibatidine
Why Russia may have turned to dart‑frog toxin epibatidine to poison Navalny
https://t.co/dWsx6Al4sz

[...]
Mark Galeotti, a Russia security expert and director of the London-based think tank Mayak Intelligence, said that for Russia, the alleged poisoning would also have been a way of reminding the world that "they have had a laboratory working on poisons for decades”, and that it is capable of producing “new and more interesting and more complex toxins and venoms".
Galeotti said the Russians may have had dual motives in opting for such an unusual poison as epibatidine. “On the one hand they're happy for people to think that Navalny was poisoned because that sends out a warning,” showing not only what the Kremlin is capable of, but the lengths to which it is swilling to go.
“But on the other hand, by using something more exotic, maybe they hoped the details would never actually come to light.”
[...]