Call me stupid but I find the strategy of averaging in over like 6 years and then selling below your average 6 years later
Kind of retarded?
Especially considering the fact BTC went up 10x from where he first started buying
@ThalexGlobal Very nice overview! This is all ATM IV? Please also supply some charts for 30dte, 60dte, 90dte atm iv and possibly some measures of 5, 10 delta kurtosis
Investors be like
- no thanks ‘investing in the markets is risky - I’ll leverage my entire net worth into a completely illiquid position in the housing market for a 5% yield.
@MichaelAArouet What's your view on real estate prices in big cities in contrast to villages. Noticing that in countries with shrinking population, like japan, real easte prices in big cities still remain strong (Tokyo). Logically you already would expect less strenght
I fully agree with this, and it confirms imo that btc price action resembles speculative/leveraged nasdaq more than a store of value. In my opinion we will consolidate and trend lower, while incorrectly position entities blow up (smaller crypto treasury companies etc). Currently looking at the nasdaq strenght, noticing a lot of profit taking on earnings events. I cannot exclude that a correction in the nasdaq can give btc another one or two flushes down before we bottom fully
@benjamincowen What you are showing is the ETH regression model right? Do you still believe the models paint a clear picture/are fitted well enough? The BTC regression model has crossed below the lowest line again.
Historically, you often see this pattern in Bitcoin at the end of every 4 year "cycle". A weekly close below the 50 EMA confirms a bear market. This is followed by a sell-off to the 100W EMA, a relief rally back to the 20W EMA (which we just had), and then a move toward the 200W MA, eventually finding a bear market bottom below that level. MSTR average entry price also coming closer @ $75,979