Tony

Crypto lover and HODLer. Always chasing the next big thing in the blockchain space.

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@reflectmoney @SolanaEvents @consensus2026 I see the confidence. You guys must have enough money to cover the full refund for USDC+, right?

And take the responsibility for your actions by fully refunding affected users and not giving them bad debt tokens from Drift instead?

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@reflectmoney Are you passing by your responsibility to Drfit protocol? We don't need useless tokens from Drift. What we need is full refund. You can keep these useless tokens to yourself and recoup the money directly from Drift. Your users didn't interact with Drift, they used Reflect.

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@liquidtrading Guys, when the lighter trading back in Liquid? Only ostium and Hyper available for now.

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@bulktrade Why so serious?

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

If you want to know where the attention of NFT's are:

Well on X the @batsoupyum interview has so far 170k views (very decent) and assume 80/20 rule that 35k people watched a decent amount.

On YT it's one of the slowest videos I've posted with 3.5k views vs usual of between 50k and 250k.

Art is niche (obviously) and it lives here on X. I take this as a good sign of low froth with concentrated attention.

Just adds to my conviction that we are early and it is a strong subculture (which is very important) and it will grow as crypto wealth grows and it showing signs of lowered concentration of just XCOPY, Beeple, Punks and Autoglyphs and is broadening out to the next two tiers of artists which collectors are beginning to re-rate because the top tier scarcer art (1/1's and small series) are becoming close to impossible to buy and thus attention is moving to others.

All good signs

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@Andrey_10gwei @solayer_labs Hope the guys will one day be responsible in the court

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@SolayerFdn You guys are greedy and dropping peanuts, while pocketing majority of tokens for yourselves

[Tony @crypto_cmdr]

@something Me me me

[Ali @0xaioli]

how to make free money on polymarket: exploiting gray areas

niche markets on polymarket have some of the most asymmetric upside you can find anywhere on public markets. i've seen 3 opportunities in the past 2 months alone, just from passively browsing and some good recommendations from friends

anyone can spot these opportunities, all it takes is a bit of reasoning and the occasional browse of new markets as they go up. below i've laid out 3 categories of opportunities i've seen + the actual bets that went into them

unclear settlement conditions
it's not uncommon for markets to go live with poorly thought-out rules. when the actual settlement conditions fails to include (or does include) some sort of stipulation for edge cases, it's not uncommon for market participants to overlook this.

will trump launch a token, 'yes' market

do untransferrable tokens count? do NFTs count? trump has launched various NFT collections in the past, and the token for his defi protocol was confirmed to be untransferrable. what does it mean for him to be "involved" in the token launch?
the market fell to 13% in early august. with a settlement date in november, it's clear that there was more than enough time for the market to become aware of this gray area - creating very little room for downside barring any new negative statements from trump. the market peaked nearly a month later at 83%, providing 7x upside (or even more if you got in earlier)

who will win the venezuelan presidential election, gonzalez 'yes' market
markets where participants may be emotionally tied to the outcome are great places to make money - more room for clouded judgement. maduro was announced as the winner by official venezuelan electoral authorities, so odds fell to 5%

however, swathes of other media sources reported a win for his opposition, gonzalez. countries started to publicly refuse the election results. the market was supposed to settle based on the outcome by official venezuelan authorities, but with an important footnote stating "however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice."

regardless of the real world outcome, it was clear there enough gray area to the point where 5% odds were massively skewed. would these alternative sources be enough to dispute the results of the settlement? even if they weren't, would they be enough to at least delay settlement?

following multiple dispute resolutions, the market slowly grinded up over a few days. eventually, it settled to 'yes' for gonzalez, marking 20x upside.

i think in super illiquid markets you could go as far as to gaslight the uma resolution process. i haven't tested this out yet, but if the right opportunity presents itself i will

messy outcome + small window of error
will $EIGEN launch by september 30th, 'no'
the $EIGEN token launch was long scheduled for sep 30th in the docs. the market was in the 25-50% range for some time, until eigenlayer confirmed the token would launch on the 30th about a week before the launch, at which point the odds dropped to 2% briefly

people actually selling at 2% show just how fucking stupid your counterparties can be on this app. how often are there delays in crypto? are you really 98% confident in such a tight window, in an industry where delays are more common than token launches? not to mention there was no time announced, and the market settles at 11:59p est, and there were still 7 more days for gray area to be introduced

eigen then announced their token launch to be at 12a est, exactly one minute after market settlement. the market is trading at 98% for 'no' now, marking over 44x upside for those lucky enough to get filled at 2%. more volume was processed closer to the 5% mark, a bid that would be up 20x now.

betting on a change in public perception over time, rather than settlement
this category underscores all other trades i take on this app. the trump token launch is specifically a good example, as there was clear information relative to settlement conditions that market participants weren't considering.

however, i think that most bets you take on polymarket shouldn't be with the intention to settle. when you have these markets with 6 figures in volume, it's not uncommon to be on the other end of a few retards.

wait for events/announcements that swing odds, look for overcorrections, do a little research, and bet on perception changes rather than the event itself. decision postponements are your best friend.

keep in mind, the only reason these conditions exist is because of low liquidity/visibility. so this isn't exactly a scalable process, nor can you enter with size. however, the upside (5-50x) and R:R given inaccurate odds is what makes things interesting.

[6529 @punk6529]

1/ On the ideal home data center

I tweeted out that more people should have home data centers (for freedom, I think) and now people are asking me what I mean and I am going to expand on the thought.

This is a work in progress, I am not 100% sure, welcome input

[Zellic @zellic_io]

You’ve probably heard of Tornado Cash - an open source coin mixer - because it was blacklisted by the US Department of Treasury last year. For security researchers, though, the mathematical principles behind Tornado Cash are wildly interesting. We dug in:

[Balaji @balajis]

What is money?

A store of value
A medium of exchange
A unit of account
And a system of control

That fourth property isn’t usually listed! Yet it’s all important. Digital fiat can be frozen, but Bitcoin can’t. It frees you from their system of control.

[Naval @naval]

Business is the activity you engage in to monetize your specific knowledge.

It is not something to be studied and pursued in and of itself.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

So many on FinTwit are expecting (hoping) for a 2008 redux. Here is why it can't happen...

In 2008 asset prices had fallen so far that the world was facing a collateral spiral. Then QE came and it took 6 months for collateral prices to stabilize and rise enough for debts to be manageable.

But since then, QE has worked PERFECTLY. You debase the currency via QE and prices rise INSTANTLY before it's too late and before collateral is called at a systemic level (ie before It's too low to offset the debts system-wide.). It is still called on at a local level.

This is what is going on now as the Fed balance sheet rises quickly in a financial crisis - the collateral prices begin to rise... and thus equities and bonds are rising commensurately (as is crypto and gold)

Yes, QE IS debasement. It doesn't drive liquidity into assets, or volumes would rise, but they don't. It's an adjustment in prices to account for the weaker purchasing power vs scarce assets.

Wages and earnings don't rise in QE as they are variable and not fixed, so P/E's rise, and also people can't afford houses, or can afford less per dollar of investment in all assets from equities, to housing from gold to crypto.

I have spent the last 2 years proving this in GMI (and to a certain extent RV Pro Macro). I know this to be true.

So, right now, all they need to do is print and collateral prices rise (bond prices (yields fall), equities, crypto, gold, etc). If the collateral is worth more, then the debt is not called at a system-wide level, unlike 2008.. Simple.

Don't believe me in a short tweet? I understand, but let me show you that 97% of all price movements in the S&P are due to G5 central bank balance sheets. See chart below.

Don't understand why P/E's keep rising? It's this Don't understand why equities are rallying? It's this. Don't understand why crypto is rising. It's this.

If you think inflation is the issue, I don't agree. But that's a tweet for another day.

QE is not inflationary. Fiscal policy IS, but it's short-lived. Japan has proven this time and time and time and time again. The trend rate of inflation is driven by demographics along with debt load (which in turn if a function of demographics) and that BIS paper on why it's inflationary is very wrong in my view IMHO (no space here to discuss how wrong that paper is!).

Here is the chart of the S&P vs the G5 balance sheets. Explain this away...and its not money going into equities from too much liquidity seeping into the system allowing people to buy. You can not statistically prove that.

It is debasement.

Same as Venezuela or Iran, just more subtle and slower and no, the US can not default and yes, @SantiagoAuFund is right, it causes the dollar to rise.... anyway.

More in time on all this or just short cut it and get Global Macro Investor (sorry, its not for everyone!) or at least watch my video on this on Real Vision (but its just the start).

TL:DR - Balance sheet up = risk assets up = crypto and tech outperforming. Buy Mortimer, buy!

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

USDC isn't the only stablecoin that has depegged, and it won't be the last.

But if you're smart, you can minimize losses and even make money on depegs.

Here's how to do it 👇🧵

[6529 @punk6529]

1/ On Taxis

Or how the world is centralizing all around you, but why you, fellow citizen, have probably not thought about it at all.

(NYC, 2007 below)

[10-K Diver @10kdiver]

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll walk you through "Gambler's Ruin".

This is a classic exercise in probability theory.

But going beyond the math, this exercise can teach us a lot about life, business, and investing.

[Naval @naval]

Borrowing for consumption blows up households.

Borrowing for speculation blows up banks.

Borrowing for bailouts, handouts, and wars blows up currencies.

Credit is an economic drug - feel good now, blow up later.