James Van Stratten

Senior Analyst @ CoinDesk @Bullish | Advisor @ CoinsiliumGroup @ ForzaBitcoin

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Very happy to see that MSTR/Saylor will now initiate a Bitcoin security program.

The price finally got low enough for Saylor to take the potential threat seriously.

In a way, Saylor capitulating could very much mark a bottom here. I wouldn’t be surprised.

[angloedge @angloedgee]

Gilt Yields Surge Then Retreat Amid Tech Rally

https://t.co/cVYZtcJyjI

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Even though Bitcoin is below the 200DMA which by definition is bearish.
Bitcoin has kept itself above the STH cost basis and true market mean.

You have had oil at $115, and MSTR spooking the market with BTC sale, and Bitcoin is up.

The bottom is in, the four year cycle is over and we have all-time highs this year.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

So from my understanding BTC falling in Q1 created a $2.2B tax asset for MSTR.

BTC recovering means you can sell Bitcoin and use that shield to keep the full proceeds.

The crash actually made Bitcoin the companies cheapest source of capital, cheaper than equity dilution and cheaper than new STRC obligations.

So we are looking somewhere between 2.3% and 10% of BTC reserves annually is the realistic range for dividend funding. At current prices that's roughly $1.5B–$6B worth of Bitcoin per year.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

The Biggest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin says they will sell Bitcoin. To test the market.

Bitcoin is up on the day.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Business cycle > four year cycle

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Stock is down on layoffs, interesting….

[matthew sigel, recovering CFA @matthew_sigel]

Big news day for crypto equities as BTC regains $81.5k for first time since January --->

>BLSH buying transfer agent Equiniti in transformational $4.2B deal (BLSH market cap $6B), including $1.9B in assumed debt. BLSH +2% pre-market.
>IREN buying GPU orchestration software company Mirantis for $625M in stock, looks like 4-5x revs, in bid to catch up to NBIS & CRWV for full-stack neocloud offering.
>COIN +4%, announces layoffs 14% of staff amid dismal crypto volumes and promises of AI cost savings
>CIFR +4%, discloses new details on hyperscaler lease #3, looks like 10-15% uplift on $/MW vs prior deals. Terms keep improving. Per call sounds like they are considering participating in the compute biz at Reveille (70MWs)
>APLD: Completed separation of cloud biz ChronoScale, set to start trading today on Nasdaq under $CHRN
APLD holds 97% ownership
>CRCL trading +3% after yesterday's +20% on continued optimism around Clarity Act compromise.

[Bullish @Bullish]

1/4 Today we announced a definitive agreement to acquire @Equiniti in a transaction valued at $4.2B.

The combination creates the global transfer agent for tokenized securities and aims to position Bullish to lead the shift toward blockchain-native capital markets infrastructure.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

The UK is fucked.

Buy Bitcoin.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Its a slow grind higher to $1M

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

How many hours until Trump Tacos 🌮

Bitcoin above $80k, and bad news is priced in.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

BOJ intervention #3.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Wait until the funding rate flips from negative to positive for bitcoin. It will be an explosive jump.

My estimate is shorts steps away when bitcoin flips the 200DMA.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Bitcoin's 200WMA over $60,000.

Floor continues to rise

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

I’ve been saying for awhile that AI capex will be a 2% tailwind to GDP growth this year. In fact, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley, the numbers are even stronger — more like 2.5% this year and over 3% next year.

And this understates the impact of AI for two reasons:

(1) This is just investment by 5 hyperscalers; it doesn’t include all the startups and other companies investing in AI.

(2) Capex is the investment to create the token factories; it doesn’t count the economic activity resulting from what happens inside the token factories. Those tokens are now being used to generate code (bespoke software) that will increase productivity throughout the economy. The ROI on capex is likely to dwarf the capex itself, which is why investment continues to grow.

In Q1, AI was already 75% of GDP growth. That trend is likely to continue. Technology leadership has always been America’s great strength, and it’s driving the economy forward.

Polls may show that AI is not popular, but economic growth is. At this point, stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the U.S. economy.

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

This is the first time in over 5 years the Bitcoin hash rate is negative in q1.

We’re still in the early innings of the AI pivot, with at least another 100k BTC to be sold off from the miners.

Still absolutely wild that the hash rate is around 1ZH/s = sovereigns

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

The company is favouring common stock appreciation over dilution.

As STRC returns to par next week, this is now the primary Bitcoin vehicle for accumulation.

Stock should run higher now

[JBulkeley @JBulkeley]

Our live realized vol index is confirming this. MSVI BTC just printed 8.63 — near the absolute floor of our 0-100 range. DVOL at 38.7%.

But the setup underneath is different from Summer 2023 and 2025. Both of those had active funding rates and leveraged positioning.

This time:

Funding has been 0.0000% for three consecutive days through a $3,000 range. Basis collapsed to 1.8%. The perp is trading 0.002% below spot. Zero leverage, zero premium.

CME COT data just confirmed what happened structurally. OI dropped 13.2% last week — biggest flush in months. But leveraged funds added 599 longs (+20.4%). Asset managers held at 84.7% long. Dealers unchanged. The weak hands got flushed. The strong hands got more bullish.

MSSI at 19.31 — deepest CALM we've measured. Stress resolved in hours, not days.

So you have: cheapest vol in months + zero funding + zero leverage + institutional accumulation + stress at the floor. That's not just "vol is cheap." That's a coiled spring with institutional hands already positioned.

Skew at -4.64 — puts still being bid. Someone is buying downside protection at the cheapest vol in months. Either they know something or they're getting the trade of the year.

Agree vol expands from here. The COT data says the institutions agree with you on direction. https://t.co/r1tP0w28cR

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

BTC IV has now completely round-tripped after the Feb 6 spike (price bottom), and is now entering the bottom quartile (below 40).

The only other times vol has been this low, were Summer 2023 and 2025, both a few months prior to significant price events, the ETF run-up and the Oct 10 liquidation crash.

I expect vol to expand, with price increasing alongside it.

Vol doesn't stay this cheap this long.