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The most profitable strategy on Polymarket in 2026 is 30 years old and has generated $100 billion.
It was not invented by a trader. It was invented by a mathematician Jim Simons, creator of Medallion Fund, the hedge fund that returned 66% annually for 30 years straight and outperformed Buffett, Soros, and all of Wall Street combined.
The formula is publicly available, but on Wall Street you need billions and 300 PhDs to run it. On Polymarket you just need a laptop.
The entire strategy in one line: small edge × many positions × low correlation.
Let me break it down simply.
Imagine a coin that lands heads 52 times out of 100. Flip it 10 times and you will not notice the difference. Flip it 10,000 times and you are in profit not probably, but mathematically.
Simons did not guess where the market was going. He took hundreds of positions with a tiny edge on each one and waited for statistics to do the work. Some always lost, but the sum of wins was always greater than the sum of losses.
On Polymarket this formula works better than anywhere else. Hundreds of markets, prices set by a crowd that makes mistakes every day, inefficiencies at every turn, and the entry threshold is not a billion but $100.
I found a wallet that is already trading by this formula.
96 positions spread across politics and sports.
Profit: $53K. Sharpe Ratio 3.43, which is higher than Medallion Fund itself and better than 91% of traders on the platform.
You can open it and see every trade: https://t.co/2Wh3exa4qA
73% on Polymarket are trying to guess and losing. Maybe it is time to start counting?
This trader just blew up Polymarket - and NO ONE understands how he's doing it!
Profile: https://t.co/pIn7B9aldx
- 99.5% win rate
- Profit $89,787
- Lost... $9
Yes, not nine thousand. NINE DOLLARS.
And this isn't some billionaire or math genius.
It's just an average user who jumps into nearly closing markets and dumps TONS of money in at the last second.
The result?
- 242 predictions.
- $40,000 in open positions right now.
- A win rate that NO ONE in the top ranks has.
And do you know how much he made in a year?
A "hilarious" $89k.
But it's the most chill $89k in the world:
he DOESN'T take risks, DOESN'T chase highs, DOESN'T hop around markets.
Add to watchlist so you don't miss out!
$500 → $68,000 in one month on @Polymarket
Crypto trading genius turned a tiny stack into real capital in just 1M
He trades $BTC and $ETC on the 15-minute timeframe
Biggest win: $2,535 / Predictions: 4,337 / Win rate: 70%
His profile to track: https://t.co/D2snvgSJm5
$0 → $325K in 1 month
One of the most profitable sports traders on Polymarket right now
Name: sovereign2013
Profile: https://t.co/1kM3w0cJ0a
Win rate: 80%
He trades 90% sports markets with exceptional consistency:
NBA: 50% of his portfolio
NFL: 30%
NHL: 10%
He doesn't touch moneylines or unusual conditional markets
Only Over/Under and Spreads
He typically enters positions at 0.47–0.55
and holds until full resolution - no early exits
If you're building a copytrade list and you don't add him, that’s a mistake
Polymarket traders with ~95% Winrate
Took me a while to dig this up — check them out, and don’t be jealous of their PnL
1. Sharky6999
All-time PNL: $329 575,44
Total predictions: 11646
Active positions: 28
Winrate: 99,4%
Profile: https://t.co/r5pBVkWGMg
2. LlamaEnjoyer
All-time PNL: $207 189,36
Total predictions: 3800
Active positions: 131
Winrate: 96%
Profile: https://t.co/6zXabY63vE
3. rwo
All-time PNL: $154 684,80
Total predictions: 7446
Active positions: 34
Winrate: 95,7%
Profile: https://t.co/8Tr1lsLv0Z
4. AgricultureSecretary
All-time PNL: $311 765,30
Total predictions: 8807
Active positions: 367
Winrate: 91.5%
Profile: https://t.co/LRV3uT70D9
These aren’t degens — they’re precision machines.
The real alpha - consistency > luck. Or they are just insiders
You can try to copy their trades on @Polymarket
@EvanLuthra If your account cant withdraw that would be very apt a scammer getting scammed 🤣😂 How does it feel ? thats how all your followers feel when you dump or extract from them
@TruthFairy131 Dumping is indeed bad, and there’s no argument to that. However, I’m curious to know if you’re an AI or a real person. I just checked your profile, and everything, including your profile picture, appears to be AI-generated. 😅 At least try a bit more to create realistic images 😆
Fermi (FRMI) priced at $21, raising $682.5 million, and will begin trading tomorrow on Nasdaq and LSE.
This may be the most strategic hard-asset IPO in years because it tackles the real bottleneck for AI and Bitcoin: power.
Fermi is building an 11GW private-power and hyperscale data center campus on 5,800 acres in Amarillo, Texas, under a 99-year lease with the Texas Tech University System. The site has redundant gas pipeline access, a deep aquifer, and sits next to the DOE’s Pantex nuclear facility. FRMI has LOIs with Siemens Energy for turbines and plans for 350 MW online by the end of Q1.
Tenant #1 has signed a letter of intent and is expected to convert in December, with a $150M prepay due Oct 15, just two weeks from now. That date is the first real test of execution. You do not bluff on the river! With that payment looming, I am betting Fermi has the cards.
A second tenant is targeted by year-end. If executed, these agreements would de-risk the story on the way to management’s target of $1.1B EBITDA in 2027 and $2.9B in 2028. At $21 FRMI implies a $13B equity value. If it trades in line with peers near 18x forward EBITDA, equity value could reach $44B or $75 a share as targets are approached, well more than 3x the IPO price.
Even with delays, a double within a year looks credible as prepays, tenants, and first megawatts land.
Full buildout may cost $60B but early phases should be financed through SPVs with OEMs and partners. Macquarie has led a $350M package for long-lead equipment. This should reduce dilution and prove the model step by step.
Fermi’s energy mix is sequenced: early megawatts from Siemens gas turbines, with nuclear optionality via AP1000 technology. Texas has embraced an “all of the above” approach to generation and load, pairing energy abundance with a regulatory framework that compensates qualified loads for curtailing during grid stress and, under new law, can mandate curtailment for very large users in emergencies.
The Texas model stands in contrast to PJM, the nation’s largest regional transmission operator, where miners and power generators (BITF, TLN) are still tied up in FERC disputes over market rules and demand response eligibility. Over time, markets may continue to reward the scale and predictability of the Texas model.
Bitcoin miners first showed that behind-the-meter generation could monetize electrons and create grid-interactive load. That model is now essential for AI. Through $NODE we have invested across Bitcoin miners, power generation, nuclear, infrastructure, and energy tied to the onchain economy. In our view FRMI looks underappreciated and attractively priced given the stage and catalysts.
This is a story stock but stories matter. Power scarcity, sovereign AI demand, and the convergence of energy and digital infrastructure are real themes backed by hard assets. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry is a co-founder and visible leader, giving the project political weight.
VanEck’s Onchain Economy ETF ($NODE) has requested a solid allocation through the bookrunners. We see FRMI as a potentially lower-volatility diversifier with near-term catalysts that can validate the land, the leadership, and the model.
Not investment advice. Just my two sats.
Many famous investors including Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman and a bunch more just updated their portfolios
Here's what their portfolios looked like as of the end of Q2 (A thread🧵⬇️)
Warren Buffett: 🐐