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☠️ Dollar’s Dead? Nah—Fade the Euro Panic!
The Euro’s ripping, “death of the dollar” screams the Economist, but contrarian bells are ringing.
Trump’s trade chaos spooks markets, tech tanks, yet stocks hold key support.
ECB’s meeting today—dovish cut looms. Easter’s quiet, but FX is loud—here’s your play.
Euro Fever: Overblown Hype
Euro’s on a tear, but a 15-year trend line caps it—never breaks meaningfully.
Germany’s export machine needs a weak Euro and low rates, clashing with pinned European yields.
ECB meets today; markets sniff a cut, whispers of a 50bps shock.
Death of the dollar? Media’s drunk on it—fade the noise.
Trade: Short EURUSD (1.1325-1.1450 range, target 1.10).
Asymmetric bet—dovish ECB could flip the script.
Tech Tumbles: Tariff Fallout Bites
Nvidia and AMD got hammered by chip export controls, ASML’s weak bookings dragged too.
TSMC’s solid earnings (AI chip revenue to double +3.9% in pre) dented the gloom.
Stocks dipped but held support—lower highs signal caution.
No face-ripping rally without US-China talks.
Setup: Watch for a Trump-Xi call to spark a risk-on pop—don’t chase yet.
Trump’s Chaos: Logical Madness?
Trump’s tariff blitz—logical from a game-theory lens—aims to reset trade fast before midterms. Markets hate the uncertainty, but it’s not a global trade implosion.
US needs China’s production; China needs US consumers. Structural shifts? Decades off, not weeks.
Meloni’s Trump meet could stir EU nerves—watch the tone.
Take: De-escalation’s coming—industry pushback grows. Prep for marginal wins, not a new world order.
Dollar’s Dip: Oversold, Not Over
Dollar’s wobbly—media screams demise, but China’s not ditching US bonds.
Yen and Swiss franc shone as risk-off havens, but dollar and stocks likely move together if risk rebounds.
Gold’s modestly off highs; oil gains on Iran sanctions.
Play: Long USDJPY if risk ticks up—tariff fears won’t tank the dollar long-term.
Pockets of 'Alpha': Hertz, Prologis Pop
Hertz soared 56% (Ackman’s stake, used-car value spike from tariffs).
Prologis (industrial storage) eyes demand as firms stockpile near consumers.
Small, speculative bets—think options-style asymmetry—can catch these tariff-driven waves.
Hunt: Scan for second-order plays (logistics, domestic production)—size small, aim big.
Data & Earnings: ECB, Netflix Steer
ECB’s cut (25bps likely) and dovish tone could sink Euro. Netflix earnings post-close—strong Q1, upbeat guidance expected.
Weak Eurozone growth and tariff shocks weigh; US economy’s “fine” unless tariffs drag on.
Easter Monday’s thin—US open, Europe closed—adds Euro-long unwind risk.
Watch: Dovish ECB or Netflix beat could shift flows. Hold light over the long weekend.
The Play: Ride FX, Dodge Risk
FX is the arena—leverage and fast moves beat equity slog. Short Euro, eye USDJPY, avoid big stock bets pre-Easter.
Stocks need a US-China handshake to break the funk—support holds, but no chase ‘til momentum flips.
Hunt niche plays like Hertz for quick hits.
If you go to the gym on weekends after 8 the only girls there are autistic powerlifting battlepawgs maxing out on squats and hip thrust
It just occurred to me people on here may find unique value in this
< 80 IQ:
"I’m buying more Bitcoin."
80–120 IQ:
“Let me explain the macroeconomic implications of tariffs on cross-border trade...”
120+ IQ:
“I’m buying more Bitcoin.”
Dear Sri lanka man with white wife @chamath . I possession much respect for you finance wisdom. But I hope I add little knowledge for your big wisdom brain. Imagine this:
China in 1960. Mao ZeDong in control. Million chinese stave to death. Little food. Mao tell chinese take that little food and export to other country to pretend China strong and rich. Result? More millions chinese die from no food. Nobody revolution.
The problem you list are only problem for America people. For chinese, those problems not as big deal. Chinese too obedient for authority. This be in our history for many thousand years. Very hard for break
If America want beat China, only way for do this be isolate China. Punish any country that trade with China. Do this for long term until new more progressive chinese government come in power, and they more willing negotiate.
Also, I go Sri lanka before. Much good fish. I catch much. Sorry if you back home and can not find fish. I eat them all. Sorry.
I know for many, after a long week of trading, it takes real motivation to sit down and analyse it all.
If you’ve done well, you might tell yourself “why bother?”.
If you’ve done badly, you might think: “I can’t bear re-living all my mistakes, I’ll just try harder next week” without any solid plan of exactly what you’re going to work on and importantly, how to improve on it.
You have to fight these thoughts to consistently elevate performance.
I’ve tweeted this review process many times. Remember: curiosity is the foundation for improvement.
Huge thanks to @TheFlowHorse for coming on the show, was super fun to chat about his early days and what made him into the ledge he is today
If you missed it, a recording is available below, and notes will be posted on Monday
Thanks for coming, and see you guys next week!