K Jay

Bitcoin class of 2017

[Tim @TimurNegru]

69 acres of private Tuscany for €690k ($797k).

The land includes an olive grove, a fruit orchard, a cork oak grove and 20 hectares of woodland. A natural spring produces 3,000 litres of water a day, solar panels cover the electricity and yes, it does have wifi.

It's also been renovated, 370m² (3,983 sq ft) across 3 floors, 3 beds, 3 baths, with a pool and a sauna. 50 km to Volterra.

Off-grid, self-sufficient, sauna, pool..what's missing here?

[Carl Moon 🌙 @carlmoon]

I’ve never seen a cycle like this.

Not in 2017.
Not in 2021.

2024–2025 broke a lot of assumptions.

Sure Bitcoin surged, but didn’t go to $300,000 like I expected.

Most altcoins went nowhere. I’m down over 90% on some altcoins.

There was no real rotation.
No sustained momentum.
Just short-lived pumps followed by heavy sell-offs.

I also want to take responsibility here: I said more than once that an altcoin season was coming. That didn’t play out, and for that, I’m sorry.

For a lot of retail, this wasn’t about missing upside, it was about surviving drawdowns.

This didn’t feel cyclical.
It felt structural.

Maybe that’s the takeaway.

Tough lesson. Hard cycle.

I’m sorry for being to bullish last year, I was clearly wrong.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

@Cryptollica Not a fan of looking at RSI in the direction of the trend. It can lag for months, extend deeper, or just sit pegged for weeks/months.

I also said you're not selling long term bitcoin here. It's a note about the shitcoins. Historically they have so so much further to drop.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Every cycle feels different, but it never is.

You make real money on paper and think it’s permanent. Then you round-trip it and swear you’re done forever.

You then miss the early part of the next cycle because of PTSD. You buy back some only after it doubles “just to be safe.” You get fully loaded by the mid-cycle, the tingly feeling is back. You promise yourself this time you’ve learned a thing or two and will be smart and reasonable this time.

Then the gains start and you take the bait, you get emotional, fall in love, and go searching for narratives to latch too. The hucksters are back too in full force selling you a dream, you ignore their last cycle grift, and fall for their new shiny paper. A faster path to your dream. You start regurgitating all their talking points, welcome to the club.

You start adding leverage, this is easy, you’re going to be super-yacht rich. You buy garbage tokens and projects, telling yourself they figured out some money glitch. It’s a whole new paradigm. You start to project where you’re going to be just one year out at this rate and say that’s too long, let’s go harder. And then the rugs begin to get pulled.

You’re quickly down 50% on a leveraged/speculative pile of poop, that you fear selling at such a “discount”. What about the dream. Paralysis becomes so great you can’t even action an exit over your better thoughts.

And not before long, you’re back to the beginning.
-----------------------------

I know this is only a subset of people entirely, more so in crypto, but I think we all to some level or extent, fall for the above. I do too!
So not intended to throw shade on people (except the hucksters), but a reminder that a balance between risk and preservation is paramount, but more importantly when to be balanced between the two at various stages of the cycle. Knowing where we are in the cycle requires being as unemotional and agnostic to your positions as possible. Once money becomes so personal, rational judgement is lost.

As for where we are now. Stocks haven’t broken down broadly, although the cracks are forming. We’re in a bull trend still, but also in that “be mindful” stage, and dips are probably not opportunities anymore.

For crypto, the carnage is huge, but can get so much worse. We’re way past the get out stage, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get out to live another day. If you’re sitting on stuff with paralysis, free yourself of this burden and dump it. A worthless token isn’t cheap because it's down 60%.
This does not apply to spot bitcoin, you’re not selling that 44% off highs, even expecting much deeper levels to come in 2026.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Young traders. The goal of trading is to "keep it" (meaning profits). Making it means nothing unless you learn how to consolidate your gains. Riding some rocket up and then crashing on the same rocket -- that is not smart trading.
Stay long enough and it is EASY to make money in speculative markets - commodities, crypto, high flying equities. The HARD part is keeping it.
Next time you catch a rocket ride, REMEMBER, rockets run on fuel, and the longer a rocket flies the less fuel it still has on board.
Having gains for many traders makes them even more bullish on their chosen asset. They buy more -- and end up buying the top.
My advice -- do not pyramid and sell small amounts on the way up
That is my advice for the day

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

When everyone finally accepts it’s a bear market, it’s usually closer to the end than the beginning.

That’s also where most people throw in the towel. We always behave the same way.

Patience is needed. Every phase of the Cycle has an action. This too shall pass.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

*#BTC just dropped below the April 2025 low.*

If it does not bounce soon, this is going to be one hell of a midterm year.

If it can bounce, it gives us a few months and gets us closer to October without so much bad price action (likely the bottom in time).

I feel like the bear narrative has been really strong for a while, and so I would expect a countertrend rally soon so that it gives the bulls some hope for a while.

However, I have learned my lesson in prior cycles, so I do not attempt to trade them. Countertrend rallies can happen, but sometimes they happen when you least expect them, not when everyone expects them.

It makes sense to assume that a sweep of a prior low would offer some relief, as that has been true for BTC even during the bull market.

But in 2014/2018/2022 when BTC fell below the 100W SMA, it was straight to the 200W SMA before any relief occurred.

The time to sell BTC was late last year, not panicking on dumps in the midterm year.

I just try and focus on the bigger picture and the bigger picture is that late Q3/early Q4 will be a better time to move real money back into the market.

Between now and then it is just people trying to make money during difficult times by trying to trade support/resistance levels.

[Blockchain Backer @BCBacker]

Essentially the phase where everyone is screaming about USDT and USDC redemptions.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin closed January at $78,635 (-38% from ath)
200 Week Moving Average $58k
Realized Price $55k, decreasing
RSI dropped below 50, blue: official bear territory
Historically BTC could drop to 200WMA/RP levels
However bull has been weak (no red) so bear might be shallow

[aka @akafaceUS]

Back in 1999, Buffett broke down why so few people ever build real wealth.

He shows you’re carrying something worth about $500,000 right now.

Bookmark this clip before it disappears.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Why Math Says This Is the Largest Pricing Error in Bitcoin History (≈105% Implied 12-Month CAGR)

Bitcoin is trading at a −35.5% deviation below its 15-year power-law trend. That is not an opinion; it is a statistical displacement the market is currently ignoring.

Power-law fair value today: $122,425
Spot price: ~$79K
That places Bitcoin firmly in the historical “oversold” regime (Z-score: −0.63).

At this depth, price doesn’t just "drift" back to trend.

It snaps.

I back tested every comparable oversold event since 2010.
Results over the following 12 months:

Win rate: 100%
Average return: +100%+

Sentiment was irrelevant every time. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean reversion process was not.

This deviation has a measurable Half-Life: 133 days.
In simple terms: The market historically corrects 50% of its pricing error every 4.4 months, 100% in ~9 months.

The $43,457 gap is a compressed spring. As it relaxes, the "snap-back" velocity dictates the path:

June 2026: $113K
October 2026: $145K
January 2027: $162K

Model fit: R^2 = 0.96 (Solid)
18-month predictive correlation: 0.55
(55% of the price movement 18 months from now is statistically explained solely by the Z-score (deviation).

We are at the extreme left tail of the distribution. This is where expected value concentrates. Math supports an aggressive ~0.6x Half-Kelly allocation.

The market is offering a significant discount.

Closing the Gap

Today
Bitcoin is ~$43.5k below its power-law trend value, a −35.5% deviation. This is the extreme left tail. Historically, this is where forward returns concentrate because the error is too large to persist.

Oct 2026
The gap compresses to ~$11k (−6.8%).
That implies roughly 75% of the anomaly has already reverted. At this point, the trade is no longer “deep value” it’s transitioning into normalization.

Implied fair value ≈ $155k
Implied Bitcoin price ≈ $145k

Jan 2027
The gap shrinks to ~$7k (−4%).

Implied fair value ≈ $168k
Implied Bitcoin price ≈ $162k

CAGR ~105% (Next 12 Months)

Why This Analysis Is Robust:

The Power Law captures Bitcoin's diminishing returns and logarithmic adoption curve (R² = 0.96).

It’s Mean-Reverting: The OU Process proves that price is tethered to value. The further it stretches (Z-score), the stronger the force pulling it back.

It’s Statistically Significant: The 18-month predictive correlation is 0.55. This means 55% of Bitcoin's future price action is explained solely by today's deviation. That is an incredibly high signal-to-noise ratio for any asset class.

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

Could this be the 4th consecutive cycle where the crossover of the Bull Market EMAs precedes macro downside continuation?

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

The play is NOT Gold vs the USD. The correct play is Gold priced in NZD. This was one of my most profitable trades in 2025 $XAUNZD

[Dhaval Makwana @heyDhavall]

GEMINI is a genius stock trader.

Most people have no idea how powerful it actually is.

Here are 8 prompts to automate stock trading:

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨DID MORGAN STANLEY PULL OFF THE BIGGEST CRYPTO MANIPULATION?

The sequence of Bitcoin’s October crash and January recovery looks like a planned setup, and the data supports it.

Let’s go through it 👇

1) OCTOBER 10: THE TRIGGER

On October 10, MSCI, originally a Morgan Stanley division, announced a proposal to remove Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its global indexes.

That included firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, whose balance sheets hold billions worth of Bitcoin. This wasn’t a small change because MSCI indexes guide trillions of dollars in passive flows.

If those firms were removed:
• Pension funds and ETFs would be forced to sell
• Institutional exposure to Bitcoin would shrink
• Liquidity would tighten sharply

Minutes after the announcement, Bitcoin dropped nearly -$18,000, erasing more than $900 billion from crypto’s total market cap.

2) THEN THE 3-MONTH PRESSURE WINDOW.

The consultation stayed open until December 31, meaning three full months of uncertainty.

That overhang froze demand:

• Passive investors avoided exposure
• Index-linked funds risked forced selling
• Prices stayed weak
• Sentiment collapsed

During this period, Bitcoin dropped about 31%, altcoins even more.
It was the worst quarter for crypto since 2018.

3) JANUARY 1st: SUDDEN PUMP STARS

From Jan 1st, Bitcoin starts pumping without any bullish news, and in the first 5 days of 2026, Bitcoin jumped 8%, that’s a $7300 pump from $87,500 to $94,800.

No one knew why, but somehow the relentless selling stopped, and Bitcoin was printing back-to-back green candles.

These were probably insiders who knew what was coming in the next few days.

4) JANUARY 5th-6th: THE REVERSAL

Then, somehow, in 24 hours, everything flipped.

First, Morgan Stanley filed for its own spot Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana ETFs.

Then, in a few hours, MSCI announced that it would not remove the crypto-heavy companies after all.

The exact rule that caused three months of selling pressure was suddenly withdrawn the same day Morgan Stanley launched a product that benefits from a recovering market.

That’s not a coincidence.

Here’s the full sequence in order:

1. MSCI threatens index removals (October 10)

2. Crypto crashes, uncertainty lasts 3 months

3. Prices stay suppressed while institutions wait

4. Morgan Stanley files its ETF (January 5)

5. MSCI cancels the removal threat (January 6)

It’s a clear pattern:

Create pressure
accumulate at low prices
launch product
remove pressure
Make money

MSCI controls index inclusion.
Morgan Stanley controls capital distribution.

Together, they can influence how and when institutional money reaches Bitcoin.

The October crash wasn’t just market panic. It was a structural play.

Now that the overhang is gone, liquidity is returning, and the same players who engineered the pressure are positioned to profit from the rebound.

There is no official confirmation that this was coordinated, but the sequence, the timing, and who benefited raise real questions.

[The Shift Journal @TheShiftJournal]

In 1998, Warren Buffett gave a 1-hour masterclass on how to never lose money investing.

[BACH @CyclesWithBach]

$BTC

Seen this Bitcoin move before. Doesn’t look like distribution to me...