1) This week in Congress and crypto: Without a doubt, this is the biggest week for crypto in DC! There's a crypto bill currently sitting on the President's desk, a full House floor vote on the comprehensive market structure bill, and a decision on the ETH ETF. Here's the latest:
Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See Nate's tweet below for probably order of events (but again we capping at 75% until we see more, eg filing updates)
The way Gensler runs the SEC, is like he’s invited you to play baseball, but no one knows the rules.
He tells you “if you don’t know just ask” but refuses to answer your questions.
At one point he randomly beats the shit out of some small kid with a baseball bat, for doing something you thought was well within the rules.
Then any time one of the good players on your team scores, he threatens them with the bat.
The umpire says Gensler is arbitrarily applying the rules, and being unfair, and kicked out two of his players for cheating.
But Gary thinks that because it’s his bat and ball, he can do what he wants. So he keeps threatening to beat people with the bat.
When people complain “hey you won’t tell us how to follow the rules” Gary points to a team called “Prometheus” which is two weird kids sitting in the dugout with a broke whiffleball bat they don’t know how to use; and he says “they can follow the rules! Why can’t you?!”
As Gary starts to lose, he throws a hissy-fit on the field claiming that the game is rampant with fraud, AI that needs guard rails, and isn’t environmentally friendly, and so he takes his bat and goes home.
That’s how Gensler is running the SEC.
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Breaking! Treasury buyback 😂
Weekly liquidity support buybacks of up to $2 billion per operation starting May 29
LOL. Up we go. It's election year my brothers. Left curve more.
I would like to thank everyone for your care and support, be it writing letters, showing support on X, or in any other form. They all mean a lot to me and keep me strong. I will do my time, conclude this phase and focus on the next chapter of my life (education).
I will remain a passive investor (and holder) in crypto. Our industry has entered a new phase. Compliance is super important.
A silver lining of this whole process is that Binance has been under the microscope. And funds are SAFU.
Protect users!
#BTC
Deepest pullback in this cycle?
This current retrace is officially the deepest (-23.6%), recently eclipsing the -22.9% retrace from early 2023
Longest pullback in this cycle?
63 days
This current pullback is -23.6% deep and 48 days long
Bitcoin has already eclipsed the deepest retrace in the cycle and is 13 days away from equalling the longest retrace in this cycle as well
$BTC #BitcoinHalving #Bitcoin
1/14
Some folks are confused, as to why the SEC "Eth is a security timeline" and the "Futures ETF" is bad for the SEC.
Here's a quick breakdown of why it paints Gensler into a corner:
non-transferable airdrop✅
most tokens go to VCs✅
vesting starts immediately for VCs✅
tiny airdrop alloc✅
points trading encouraged but traders get rugged✅
spend a lot of effort banning VPNs✅
insiders know the precise block number of snapshot✅
it’s so over
Good airdrop farming opportunities are becoming increasingly rare at this point in the cycle
I went through 64 of the more well-known tokenless protocols and put them in tiers based on how/if I would farm them
$LINEA Airdrop will be MASSIVE, get your bags ready 🪂 💰
Linea Surge campaign is coming, hurry up to deposit and GET early multiplier!
Time: 5 min
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Secret strategy to secure Linea and LayerZero $ZRO Airdrop at once🧵👇
This bull run is 50% over.
Entering this choppy period, I decided to take some time to analyze TOTAL3. This gives us a decent picture of where we are in the cycle.
If you aren't familiar with TOTAL3, it includes the market cap of all assets except for BTC/ETH. Since stablecoins make up a large percentage, I went ahead and subtracted USDT/USDC as well.
You could also subtract zombie coins such as ADA, XRP, BCH, ETC, etc., but I decided to leave them in.
TOTAL3 is still 50% down from last cycle's peak, which represents plenty of upside left. Although we've already seen most of this cycle's outsized gains disappear for large caps.
Below are a few examples:
BTC 3X
FET 45X
SOL 20X
AVAX 6X
TIA 10X
PENDLE 10X
WIF $0 -> $3B
PEPE $0 -> $3B
Even if your price targets for BTC are $120K or for SOL $500, we're only a few multiples away.
The good news? Most of the gains and exponential moves are made in the last few innings of a bull run.
You'll likely need to expand beyond majors from here for outsized gains, further into the risk curve.
How to play the current period? Right now, I'm all about protecting capital. I have my long-term holds, and that's it.
The $ETH ETF will likely be delayed in May; it has a long battle ahead as the SEC looks to classify it as a security. BTC ETF flows are turning negative as the ETF approvals and halving hype dries up.
I'm confident we're taking a breather before we head into the next leg up of this market. Don't force trades and don't get lost in the chop.
You lose nothing by waiting for a more clear picture.
Wrote a little something with @ThorHartvigsen estimating Ethena S2 farming returns. We cover 3 airdrop farming strategies:
1) Low risk: hold USDe
2) Med risk: buy @pendle_fi USDe YT on ETH or ARB
3) High risk: buy USDe YT + ½ of the former in ENA YT
Assuming 5% airdrop allocation + $20B FDV by end of S2, $20K principal gives you:
1) $5.1K return (72% APY)
2) $23.7K return (331% APY) Ethereum/ $23K return (321% APY) Arbitrum
3) $32.5K return (454% APY)
Full article here: https://t.co/UbCTRInnsO