a common misconception is that bear markets are long
in stocks, most bear markets are under 12 months, and some have been as short as 1 month
the current bitcoin bear market started on nov 4 2025 after btc dropped -20% from ath
and it's been over since btc broke $74,000 🧠
How do I know that the climate *crisis* is a scam? Here are five reasons:
1️⃣ None of the politicians, celebrities, or “scientists” yammering about it have altered their lifestyles an inch. If they opted to forgo using O&G products, then I’d take them seriously. Actions speak louder than words.
2️⃣ Climate conferences aren’t being held virtually on Zoom using their large meeting extensions. It’s doable, they just choose not to. They like to fly overseas to lecture us about reducing our “carbon footprint” all the while they do nothing to lower their own.
3️⃣ Wealthier alarmists are still living on or buying oceanfront property. If ocean levels were really rising at a catastrophic rate (as opposed to the gradual increase that is actually occurring), then they would move inland and banks would not approve loans.
4️⃣ Alarmists rarely, if ever criticize China and India, and they always come up with all sorts of wonderful excuses as to why those nations get a free pass to continue emitting so-called “carbon pollution.”
5️⃣ The only solutions they offer involve increased governmental power. Higher taxes. EV mandates. Restrictions or bans on the energy sectors they don’t like.
And, as an added bonus, no real-world data proves, much less suggests that we are facing an “existential crisis.” Even the IPCC doesn’t use such rhetoric because it isn’t based on science.
I don’t deny that climate change exists.
It always has. And, I don’t even deny that at least some of the increase in temperatures is anthropogenic.
But I just don’t care because it isn’t that big of a deal.
Extreme weather cannot be taxed away. Our vulnerability will continue to increase so long as we build in disaster-prone areas.
Politicians cannot take our wallets and set a thermostat on the planet.
We are seeing $BTC miners capitulate.
This has always been a strong buying signal on the HTF.
As stated, I’ve closed all my short positions and I am favouring low-leverage swing longs.
We are still in a range, so we can chop, but the stars are aligning
$BTC
Same story, different week.
We pumped Sunday into Monday, and once again, a Monday high formed.
Always pay attention to Monday closely: if we start dumping into a key level, look for long opportunities, and if we’re pumping into resistance, look for shorts.
$BTC
CME gaps tend to get filled quickly, often within the first week, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see BTC revisit this area.
It’s a crucial level to hold; if it fails from a structural standpoint, a move down toward the 64–65K range becomes likely.
$BTC
Deep Undervalued / Capitulation Zone.
We could still drift lower for a few months before fully bottoming out, but the RR no longer justifies staying short.
As mentioned, I’m steadily accumulating bitcoins.
I am also searching for good RR HTF longs. Patience.
🚨 READ THIS CAREFULLY
Bitcoin has just entered the relief phase of the bear market.
2022 structure is repeating perfectly:
54% drop from ATH → complete
Relief rally → now
Final capitulation → next
This is where the trap is.
Most traders think the bottom is in during this phase.
It isn’t.
The part almost nobody understands:
Timing.
Days from cycle top → final bottom:
2012: 405 days
2016: 362 days
2020: 376 days
Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is:
July–November 2026.
That matters more than any price level people are watching.
Most traders think like this:
“I’ll buy at X.”
But real bottoms don’t form where it feels obvious.
They form where people give up.
And before that happens:
There has to be pain.
- Forced selling (happening).
- Liquidations (in progress).
- Panic (almost there).
- Sentiment collapse (soon).
When people stop buying dips… Narratives break… Everyone turns bearish…
That’s when bottoms form.
We’re not there yet.
Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already.
Even though the timing window isn’t here yet.
Back in October, around $120k,
I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k.
People laughed.
“BTC will never go below $100k again.”
Now we’re here.
Remember, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
Risk <<<<< Reward at this point in time.
Some more months to go, some zig zag, before we push back above 100k towards a new ATH.
Bitcoin is strong.
Bitcoin:
You must be able to do 3 things now to make it:
1. Buy when others are selling (sounds silly, but many can't)
2. Spread entries and scale in
3. Accept that temporary drawdowns of another 30 - 40% from your initial entry can happen
I've been using this indicator since 2020 to scale into long-term positions. It has not failed me ever since.
(Inciator: WMA 200, weekly). Not financial advice.
Bitcoin did a 700% run over 3 years and it felt like nobody celebrated (especially retail).
That tells you everything about this cycle.
Look at the Satoshimeter... every previous cycle spiked into extreme greed (15+). 2013, 2017, 2021. all blow-off tops with retail euphoria, parabolic mania, everyone asking about altcoins (usually XRP lol).
This time we barely touched 8-9 and pulled back. Despite (on paper) a fantastic bull run.. it felt different for many. Quiet and almost boring.
So what happens now?
BTC is in accumulation mode. Smart money is slowly positioning. Stocks still have room to correct. BTC already made the big move down. Expect some chop, possibly low 50Ks.
Here's my take: a cycle that never blew off still has unfinished business. I still believe the Satoshimeter gets back to 15 including the parabolic BTC phase (next cycle).
My guess... late 2026 we start transitioning from bear back to bull.
Make the right things easy to do.
Make the wrong things hard to do.
That is how you build a life.
That is how you build a family.
That is how you build a civilization.
Easy money makes debt easy.
Debt makes excuses easy.
Excuses make weakness easy.
Bitcoin flips the incentives.
Save instead of spend.
Think instead of react.
Build instead of borrow.
Truth should be easy to verify.
Discipline should be easy to practice.
Fraud should be hard to hide.
The system you live under trains corruption.
That is why so many people feel trapped.
Good rules create strong people.
Bad incentives create weak ones.
Fix the incentives.
Everything changes.
Follow if you want signal, not noise.
The System Breaks Your Savings in Slow Motion
Oil spikes.
Prices rise.
Jobs stay firm.
The Fed stays trapped.
And the people who did everything right get punished anyway.
They worked.
They saved.
They waited.
Then war, debt, and inflation reached into their pocket without asking.
This is what broken money does.
It turns discipline into loss.
It turns patience into pain.
It turns honest labor into collateral damage.
Bitcoin matters because it does not ask a central bank for permission to tell the truth.
No bailouts.
No surprise dilution.
No political memory hole.
Just rules.
When the cost of energy, debt, and empire rises, you find out fast what money is made of.
Bitcoin was built for that test.
Protect your time before the system reprices your life.
Stop measuring wealth in units they can print.
Start storing it in money they cannot change.
Nobody in crypto is talking about the $1 billion Bitcoin operation that gets wiped out if the bombs fall.
Iran mines Bitcoin at $1,320 per coin on subsidized electricity and sells it at $68,000. A 50x gross margin. Not a hedge fund return. Not a venture multiple. Fifty times on power costs alone, running on electricity priced at half a cent per kilowatt hour while Iranian civilians suffer rolling blackouts because 700,000 mining rigs are draining 2,000 megawatts from a collapsing grid every single day.
95 percent of those rigs are illegal. The IRGC runs the largest operations, exempt from electricity bills, consuming power from facilities that simultaneously cause blackouts in hospitals and homes. The regime legalized mining in 2019 specifically to convert sanctioned energy into unsanctioned hard currency. Bitcoin is not a side hustle for Iran. Bitcoin is the single most effective sanctions evasion tool in the regime’s arsenal. Every block mined on subsidized Iranian electricity is a direct conversion of state-subsidized energy into dollars that no SWIFT ban can touch.
Iran accounts for 2 to 5 percent of global Bitcoin hashrate. That means roughly 1 in every 25 blocks confirmed on the Bitcoin network is being validated by machines that fund the IRGC, the same organization massing troops at the Iraqi border, operating the missile batteries the F-22s were sent to suppress, and running the nuclear facilities the B-2s are programmed to destroy.
Now connect this to the strike.
Iran’s power grid is already failing. The mining operations consume the equivalent of a mid-sized city’s electricity demand. A military campaign targeting critical infrastructure, command nodes, radar installations, and military communications would cascade through the same grid that powers the mining farms. You do not need to target Bitcoin mining specifically. You just need to hit the grid that sustains it.
A 7-to-10 day air campaign collapses Iranian electricity generation by an estimated 30 to 50 percent. That does not reduce mining by 30 to 50 percent. It eliminates it entirely, because mining rigs require continuous power and even brief outages destroy active operations. The global Bitcoin hashrate drops 2 to 5 percent overnight. Difficulty adjusts downward. Block times extend. Transaction fees spike. And $1 billion in annual Iranian crypto revenue, the hard currency pipeline that no sanction could close, goes dark in the same week the centrifuges stop spinning.
The market is pricing Iran risk into oil.
Nobody is pricing it into Bitcoin.
Every hash produced in Iran today is a countdown timer. When the grid goes, the hashrate goes with it. And the IRGC’s last unsanctionable revenue stream dies alongside the enrichment program it was funding.