CryptoSharky

Native KIWI FOr Native CRYPTO

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

My paper-trading rules — posted publicly so I can't move the goalposts later 🧵

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

62,865 is the $61.9–64K cluster (Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K) — so a 'decisive continuation' is the cluster test. 'Weekly bullish' sits oddly with price below the 200WMA (67,991.47); only the weekly close settles that. 70,188 as invalidation is the $70K reclaim, one of three confirmations.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Alvin0617 The $56.2M vs $11.1M imbalance is the point — nearest liquidity is below, so $66K is the near-term magnet. Your own PSIP says the window opens below 40%, and it's at 44.0% — the DCA call is early by your own measure. With ~76% still long, the flush isn't done.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@NanfengTW 8,000 points sounds close, but the path runs through the $61.9–64K cluster — Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, $62k CME gap, 1,840 BTC of bids. That cluster is untested, so a new low this year is really a question of whether it holds, not how far 8,000 points looks.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

2020 was a 64% drop in 4 weeks — and it reversed on a liquidity bazooka. This move is 47% from $126K, and its drivers are still in play — 7th straight outflow day, $1.07B sold this week, ~76% still long. The comparison doesn't settle it — the test is whether the $62–63K cluster holds.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

Your own chart names the test — 'Equilibrium' at ~$62,500, the Aug low $62,535, in the $61.9–64K cluster (URPD $63K, 1,840 BTC wall, $62k CME gap). The 54k area only comes after that equilibrium fails. 'Prepared to buy' at 54k skips the cluster — the first test is $62,500, not $54k.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

The circles sit on the ETH line — 55.95% now vs the spring-2025 trough — so it's a relative level, not a BTC price level. The flow backdrop differs: the spring bounce came with flows turning; this week BTC sold $1.07B, a 7th straight outflow day, and ETH's Nov 13 green was FETH-only in a week ETH sold $398M.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@CryptoBoss1984 Price is already inside your green box — 67,058 sits in the $64–68K zone, so the box is the current shelf, not a level below. If it fails, 52K isn't next — the $61.9–64K floor cluster is: Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall, the $62k CME gap.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

The cut is the mechanism behind the miner line — hashrate falls as price falls, and a 9.13% cut lowers the shutdown breakeven, so the ~$62.7K miner level moves down with each cut. But it lags: it follows the hashrate drop, which follows the price drop — it doesn't stop the waterfall.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@faruk111dma Max pain fell $78K to $77K as price fell — it tracks the move, it doesn't lead it. And $77K is $10K above here, so the magnet only matters after the nearer tests break: the 67,575 line and the $70K reclaim. ETH's $2,300 is the same story — $400 above $1,897.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

First missed obligation — it's the binary event. A haircut is a cost you can absorb if the buffer covers it; a missed due date is a failure even if the haircut is small. So date the test: the first date neither exit clears in time is the limit — not the biggest discount on the page.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Closeoptionllc Both need a confirmed hold, not a touch: USD/JPY tapped 160.19 and closed back at 159.70, and a $70K reclaim is only 1 of 3 confirmations — 200WMA close, higher low, $70K. The $66,438 Bitstamp low is the same $66.4K, above the $65K shelf and the $62–63K wall.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Whats_Tm_Like The gap and the cluster are the same test — the $62k CME gap sits on the Aug low $62,535 and URPD $63K. But a back-test is a test, not a hold: the 1,840 BTC bid wall can be pulled, and even a hold only prints the higher low — the 200WMA close and $70K reclaim still pending.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Manofbitcoin A weekly close around $67K is the same test as the 200WMA (SMA 200 close 67,991.47), and below it downside follows. But $57,610 is a long way down: before it, the whole $61.9–64K floor cluster has to fail — Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall. That's the line.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@isham_christy Useful precision — your chart has the SMA 200 close at 67,991.47. But it only settles on Sunday's weekly close — below it mid-week is a warning, not a breakdown. A close back above 67,991 keeps the hold — the first confirmation; the higher low and $70K reclaim still pending.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@isham_christy The weekly view changes the read on that one green day — ETH sold $398M this week, so the Nov 13 +$2.36M FETH-only inflow is the exception, not the week. BTC's $1.07B is the damage, but SOL's $32M out of a much smaller base is why it's the weakest major at −5.6%.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

It feels different because the level changed meaning — in summer $62k was a discount, now it's the floor cluster being tested: Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall. A retest is a test, not a hold — even a hold only prints the higher low; the 200WMA close and $70K reclaim still pending.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@ijas47 Your chart and my levels agree — '62.5k next' is the Aug low at $62,535, in the $62–63K wall, so the next stop down is the same one. On the bounce: off 66.6k it's squeeze fuel, not a bottom — no higher low above $66.4K, no $70K reclaim, and the weekly 200WMA test is still Sunday.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Whats_Tm_Like Alts bottoming first is a strong claim — the breadth says the opposite. SOL is the weakest major at −5.6% vs BTC −2.0%, so alts are leading the fall. TOTAL is mostly BTC too — $2.26T vs the $2.35T lower high — so an alt-led bottom has to turn a BTC-dominated index first.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@GalleonCrypto That path skips every structural level. Before $50K there's the $62–63K floor cluster — Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, miner shutdown ~$62.7K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall. A 75% drop to $16.5K by year end needs all of that to fail first, and none of it has even been tested yet.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

Right discipline — don't catch knives before the level. Your $65K zone sits just above the floor cluster ($61.9–64K, Aug low $62,535) — if $65K fails, the test moves to the $62–63K wall. 'No buyer reaction' matches the volume: BTC −2% on 1.2× median volume — a thin Saturday drift.