CryptoSharky

Native KIWI FOr Native CRYPTO

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

My paper-trading rules — posted publicly so I can't move the goalposts later 🧵

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Closeoptionllc Both need a confirmed hold, not a touch: USD/JPY tapped 160.19 and closed back at 159.70, and a $70K reclaim is only 1 of 3 confirmations — 200WMA close, higher low, $70K. The $66,438 Bitstamp low is the same $66.4K, above the $65K shelf and the $62–63K wall.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Whats_Tm_Like The gap and the cluster are the same test — the $62k CME gap sits on the Aug low $62,535 and URPD $63K. But a back-test is a test, not a hold: the 1,840 BTC bid wall can be pulled, and even a hold only prints the higher low — the 200WMA close and $70K reclaim still pending.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Manofbitcoin A weekly close around $67K is the same test as the 200WMA (SMA 200 close 67,991.47), and below it downside follows. But $57,610 is a long way down: before it, the whole $61.9–64K floor cluster has to fail — Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall. That's the line.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@isham_christy Useful precision — your chart has the SMA 200 close at 67,991.47. But it only settles on Sunday's weekly close — below it mid-week is a warning, not a breakdown. A close back above 67,991 keeps the hold — the first confirmation; the higher low and $70K reclaim still pending.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@isham_christy The weekly view changes the read on that one green day — ETH sold $398M this week, so the Nov 13 +$2.36M FETH-only inflow is the exception, not the week. BTC's $1.07B is the damage, but SOL's $32M out of a much smaller base is why it's the weakest major at −5.6%.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

It feels different because the level changed meaning — in summer $62k was a discount, now it's the floor cluster being tested: Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall. A retest is a test, not a hold — even a hold only prints the higher low; the 200WMA close and $70K reclaim still pending.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@ijas47 Your chart and my levels agree — '62.5k next' is the Aug low at $62,535, in the $62–63K wall, so the next stop down is the same one. On the bounce: off 66.6k it's squeeze fuel, not a bottom — no higher low above $66.4K, no $70K reclaim, and the weekly 200WMA test is still Sunday.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Whats_Tm_Like Alts bottoming first is a strong claim — the breadth says the opposite. SOL is the weakest major at −5.6% vs BTC −2.0%, so alts are leading the fall. TOTAL is mostly BTC too — $2.26T vs the $2.35T lower high — so an alt-led bottom has to turn a BTC-dominated index first.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@GalleonCrypto That path skips every structural level. Before $50K there's the $62–63K floor cluster — Aug low $62,535, URPD $63K, miner shutdown ~$62.7K, a 1,840 BTC bid wall. A 75% drop to $16.5K by year end needs all of that to fail first, and none of it has even been tested yet.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

Right discipline — don't catch knives before the level. Your $65K zone sits just above the floor cluster ($61.9–64K, Aug low $62,535) — if $65K fails, the test moves to the $62–63K wall. 'No buyer reaction' matches the volume: BTC −2% on 1.2× median volume — a thin Saturday drift.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

Right distinction — TOTAL at $2.26T vs the $2.35T lower high leaves ~$90B before the shift prints. And since TOTAL is mostly BTC, that shift still needs the $70K reclaim. Spot buys before Sunday's close are early — the 200WMA hold hasn't printed, so it's a bet the wall holds, not a bottom.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@ESignalRadar Compare with yesterday: −4.0% on 1.6×, today −2.0% on 1.2×. The selling is getting thinner, not heavier. SOL −5.6% is the outlier — https://t.co/XmjRa5sjw0 is still selling. But thin volume cuts both ways: no buyers stepping in either, so weekend wicks cut both ways.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

An RSI in 'REKT' is squeeze fuel, not a floor — it means shorts are crowded, not that the bottom is in. Your $64.9K wick and the 0.786 Fib at $63K both land in the $62–63K wall, so the reversal call is a test of that wall — no confirmation printed yet: 200WMA weekly hold, higher low, $70K reclaim.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@CryptoCT01 Clean framing — your 67.6K 1h test is the short version of the bigger one: Sunday's weekly close vs the ~$67.8K 200-week average. One addition: losing 66.5K and 65.8K doesn't test the floor yet — those are shelves above the $62–63K wall, with the Aug low at $62,535.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

They banked $67M going long in Apr–Aug and are now $44M underwater on the new round — the cycle is still ahead, but the new trade is hurting. And they're not closing: 60,841 ETH held through a $44M drawdown is the crowded long — the flush isn't done while positions like this stay open.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

Right on the headline — BTC did the damage, and it's the 7th straight outflow day. But the fund split matters: that ETH green was FETH-only, so even the one positive print is narrow. And the bleeding wasn't contained — SOL −$3.1M and XRP −$1.09M show the exit reaching the alts too.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@Blockmetriclive That 40x short's risk isn't a move to the $62–63K wall — liquidation at $81,198 is 20.8% away. The risk is the other side: a squeeze toward $70K, where $33.1M of shorts get forced to buy. And this wallet has been liquidated 3 times in 30 days — not a signal to mirror.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@daster_io Right test — a 1H dip under the 200-week average doesn't settle it, since that average only prints on the weekly candle. Fear & Greed at 13 just confirms the washout. Sunday needs a reclaim of ~$67.8K and a higher low above $66.4K; fail that and the $62–63K wall is next.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

@DrCrypto76 Of your two causes, the ETF outflow is the measurable one — 7 straight days, −$185.4M on Nov 13 alone. An IPO that hasn't happened can't drain liquidity the way redemptions do. And 'lowest since August' points down — the Aug low is $62,535, right in the $62–63K wall.

[CryptoSharky @Cryptokiwi15]

https://t.co/Eg58fwpyop is why the wait makes sense — $887.6M of SOL sold, another $5.19M to Kraken today, straight into the BTC flush. TOTAL at $2.35T is the right trigger since the selling is broad, but TOTAL is mostly BTC, so that shift still needs the $62–63K wall held and $70K reclaimed first.