Crypto Sanity

Madness in, sanity out

“Within groups selfish individuals beat altruistic individuals, but groups of altruists beat groups of selfish individuals.”

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@dadabit Throw away holiness and wisdom,
and people will be a hundred times happier.

Throw away morality and justice,
and people will do the right thing.

Throw away industry and profit,
and there won’t be any thieves.

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@dadabit Therefore the Master acts without doing anything and teaches without saying anything.

Things arise and she lets them come; things disappear and she lets them go.

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@theunforgivn81 @whiteboyjustdie @MorePerfectUS Loan officers would look at the overall picture, many viewed their role as benefitting community development. This greatly helped small business and minority customers starting out. Mass standardization paved the way for destruction of local banks and local economies suffered

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@cmariedreams @UHLEESHUUH @BowmanNancy @KiaRichards_ @Porkchop_EXP To me the great thing about science is it always leaves the door open.

Good science is *literally* about listening to observations that are unexpected and then searching deeper

That's why scientists are actually studying this phenomenon https://t.co/9JRxZYhsod

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@OmicronData @sailorrooscout Covid is unfolding close to my Bayesian priors, although it is evolving more rapid than I thought and I was hoping that vaccination would reduce long covid more than it appears to.

How close is it to yours?

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@OmicronData @sailorrooscout I had the same argument with climate scientists for years. The mechanisms of tipping points are obvious but they don't want to include them without bulletproof data so just kept using equilibrium models. Now things are destabilizing and constantly it is "worse than expected"

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

Lots of chatter this is exactly what's unfolding...supposedly less than 10% to go until mass liquidation cascades

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

Another scenario:

There is a unlikely but decent risk (10-20% imo) that things will get much worse from here very quickly

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@pandemik0 @fitterhappierAJ @gianlucac1 No, anti-virals speed up mutations. Monoclonal antibodies are linked to new variants; surely Paxlovid will be

The focus must be on zero covid. Vaccines help reduce spread/bad outcomes and anti-virals are great for high risk patients...but we need to walk and chew gum

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

Crypto as a whole needs to move from "design to succeed" to "design to fail" with clear scenarios that capture the most extreme events possible

If the community works together a list can be generated covering most scenarios and stress testing completed before deployment

[Blizz Finance @BlizzFinance]

Chainlink pausing the LUNA oracle allowed several attackers to deposit millions of LUNA which is still worth $0.10 according to the Chainlink oracle to borrow all the collateral.

The protocol has been drained before we could pause due to our timelock.

[C @cyounessi1]

Over *four years* ago I was a research analyst at @scalarcapital.

The Terra / $LUNA deal came across our desk and I was assigned to it because I was the DeFi guy. Here's what I had to say about the project.

How did we allow it to end up like this?

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@Dan_Geis A few of those will be very niche and optimized around specific use cases.

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

Ok just checked and MIM has held. So I will say it's resilient haha

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@AJ901 @buddyguy010 But I'll say this. If it survives $UST-$LUNA deleveraging spiral getting activated (potentially very soon) and Luna plunges 50% or something...with big UST depeg and incredible collateral evaporation

Then I'll be open to saying it's resilient

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@LeCoq_Grande_ @chikn_nft @btcflower Going backwards. "Show me the logic and I will show you the incentives."

"Show me the worldview and I will show you the logic."

"Show me yourself and I will show you the worldview"

Crypto people largely share the same DNA as what they despise, recreating the drama

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@LeCoq_Grande_ @chikn_nft @btcflower The underlying logic of the early cryptophiles guaranteed this outcome...which is why I decided not to participate from the very beginning at extreme detriment to my personal wealth

As the Munger quote says "Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome."

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

@JimBTC @LeCoq_Grande_ @AJ901 a challenger has appeared!

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

If this occurs then I hope crypto survives enough to learn from it

Best wishes to everyone and f the psychos, but really the design makes this inevitable

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

Another scenario:

There is a unlikely but decent risk (10-20% imo) that things will get much worse from here very quickly

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

So there was a mini-bounce inbetween which delayed us a couple months but potentially we just saw this flushout.

Will it be the last?

[Crypto Sanity @cryptosanitymag]

Once the system is mapped out and the entry points understood, it is trivial to pull off

Ironically the transparent nature of the chain and sharing of positions makes this much easier