$BTC & $ETH Macro scenario you need to deal with ✍🏻
Most people are trapped in two extreme narratives:
• Bitcoin is going back to $30K and we'll get another brutal 2022-style bear market.
• Bitcoin is going straight to $200K after breaking ATH.
I think both sides are likely wrong.
Many are expecting another $16K ➝ $100K move: a clean, easy, almost uninterrupted 6-7x run. Markets rarely reward the same crowd with the same opportunity twice.
I don't believe we'll ever see Bitcoin at $30K-$32K again. Could I be wrong? Of course. But structurally, I think future bear markets will look very different from the last one.
My main point is 👇🏻
The next major Bitcoin bottom could happen somewhere in the $45K-$55K range. That's still painful. That's still enough to destroy overleveraged traders. But it's nowhere near the apocalypse many people are expecting!
And here's the part most people won't like 👇🏻
I don't think Bitcoin smashes through the $126K ATH with unprecedented strength and immediately runs to $200K. That's the dream scenario everyone is positioning for. Markets usually don't make it that easy and y'all know it.
Instead, I can see Bitcoin pushing into the $110K-$140K region ➝ printing a new ATH ➝ then delivering a nasty correction. Maybe even doing it more than once.
Imagine a market that repeatedly punishes both sides:
• Bears waiting for $30K.
• Bulls waiting for $200K.
That's exactly the type of environment that causes maximum frustration. And maximum frustration is where markets thrive.
Over time, this could make Bitcoin's higher-timeframe structure look a lot more similar to $ETH for some period of time. Not identical. Just slower, choppier, and much more frustrating than people currently expect.
So if Bitcoin eventually reaches $200K-$300K? I think it gets there. I just don't think it gets there overnight. These things take time.
Now let's talk about Ethereum ✍🏻
And this is where my opinion becomes much more aggressive.
$ETH is one of the most hated large-cap assets in crypto right now. Crypto Twitter has spent months burying it.
Every rally gets mocked.
Every dip gets amplified.
Every delay becomes a reason to declare Ethereum dead.
Meanwhile, the same crowd is still dreaming of buying Bitcoin at bargain prices and catching another effortless 8x move.
I think they're looking in the wrong place. I'm pretty sure Ethereum is preparing to smash through those annoying highs next time with unprecedented strength!
Not quietly.
Not reluctantly.
But with conviction.
The market has spent so much time doubting Ethereum that a breakout could end up being far more violent than most participants expect.
That's usually how markets work. The biggest moves happen where conviction is lowest. Bitcoin may spend years teaching people patience. Ethereum may spend months teaching people humility.
My thesis is simple 🤌🏻 🧠
• Bitcoin isn't going back to $30K.
• Bitcoin probably isn't going straight to $200K either.
• The path higher will likely be slower and more frustrating than most expect.
• Ethereum has a much better chance of shocking the crowd than the crowd realizes.
So don't fade Ethereum 🔥 📈
Let's go @VitalikButerin 🫂
@AlNassrTribune I don’t understand why he have to follow his fathers club. I can get it if it’s real or juve, but what experience this kid is getting now in alnassr? It’s a step back in skill progression. Sooner or later CR7 will end career and Junior will need move in some competitive club.
@CastilloTrading IMO no point to warn men like him. I think he’s not independen trader. More like paid worker of cex’s coalition or something. I just refuse to believe that people can be that stupid.
I can’t see $ETH retracing the entire CME gap, which is around $2,300–$2,100. Maybe it’ll touch the gap, start filling it from the upper part, which also lines up with the 200 EMA on the 1D and a 1D Supertrend retest.
BUT: that would be such an obvious swing entry for a crazy number of people that I just don’t believe it. Or maybe I simply don’t understand the market makers’ logic.
Meanwhile… $2,400 is still holding.
Meanwhile… the rate hike is already priced in, so maybe Warsh will sound positive today.