My entire adult life has been a study in risk - as a naval officer, as a FX market maker, as a risk manager, as a fundamental investor, and as an entrepreneur.
“If we can forgive what’s been done to us… If we can forgive what we’ve done to others… If we can leave our stories behind. Our being victims and villains. Only then can we maybe rescue the world.” - Chuck Palahniuk via @tferriss
Elon said a while back that the gov is basically unfixable and only dramatic GDP growth (from AI & robotics) is the way to outpace our massive debt load.
Thinking the gov will be spend less $ is a fools errand, the only answer is make more $ and have investments > inflation
The rent freeze --> maintenance halt --> NYC inspectors fail landlords -> NYC takes the properties for violations after punitive fines --> Auction properties to non-profits that are DSA fronts --> free cash flow for socialism.
“One on the West Coast is analyzing every indicator it can — including small workplace infractions like not completing training on time or failing to regularly change passwords — to create something like an employee social credit score …” https://t.co/qI1k0Hx497
.@robkhenderson: “Add up the tax and the philanthropy, and the citizenry gets 59% of what billionaires earn, or 73% if you follow their fortunes into death. Estimates that billionaires pay lower tax rates than everyone else rest on distortions, tricks and lies.”
NYC forced a high minimum wage on delivery drivers.
Now, customers tip less.
"The decrease in tips … offset all of the gains," explains @judgeglock of @ManhattanInst.
Why government "help" usually hurts:
Warsh is only speaking because he is expected to say words.
His public commentary means nothing.
He is a black box and people are trying to interpret the significance of its dimensions.
The thing nobody talks about with AI and why it is potentially so powerfully different is that so much of Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 was just pretty bullshit that didn’t really do much.
Most AI companies will have the same get-rich-quick DNA.
But there will be a tremendous number that will tackle the biggest problems successfully.
“The City Council held a hearing on Monday on legislation that would allow the city’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development to seize buildings from landlords who have racked up housing code violations and debt from unpaid taxes and fines and turn them over to owners they deem more responsible, according to Gothamist.”
Owners the city deems more responsible? Wonder who that could be.
https://t.co/kkDQVFoT4D
‘physics has 3 laws that explain 99% of what happens. finance, he says (crediting MIT's Andy Lo), has 99 laws that explain about 3% - "and even that's an exaggeration."’
Goldman Sachs ran on Emanuel Derman's models for 17 years
he built them - Black-Derman-Toy, the stuff Wall Street still uses. his verdict on those models? don't trust them.
physics has 3 laws that explain 99% of what happens. finance, he says (crediting MIT's Andy Lo), has 99 laws that explain about 3% - "and even that's an exaggeration."
a physics model predicts where a rocket lands. a finance model predicts nothing - it just guesses a price from other prices. one honest law in all of finance: same payoff, same price. "all the rest is modeling."
why the gap? "in physics you're playing against God. in finance, you're playing against God's creatures" - and they change the rules the moment they learn.
~30-min lecture, free. the man who built the models, on why the math of finance is quietly broken ↓
“So $MU traded at 5x earnings”
“yes, Dave”
“And memory prices were still rising"
“right.”
“And you bought $ADBE because you were told memory is cyclical"
“that’s correct, Dave”