CMT

Student of the Market
Fundamental and Technical Analyst

[CMT @ctate480]

@LogicalThesis $LABU

[CMT @ctate480]

$DELL $HPE
What do these have in common other than group?

3 quarters of accelerating earnings and sales growth

[CMT @ctate480]

$DELL reminding me of $LITE breakaway gap from its short base in the 180’s

[CMT @ctate480]

3 month RS Scan filtered by 50 day Avg $ volume:

Shades of tech in - $DELL $AMD $HPE
Software - $FTNT $PANW $SNOW $NET
Banks galore
Oil & Gas / Energy
Sector ETF's galore

$AAPL
$AMD
$DELL
$JPM
$UNH
$PANW
$DIA
$BAC
$XLE
$XLF
$SNOW
$XLV
$ABBV
$HPE
$XBI
$KRE
$NET
$CVS
$PYPL
$VLO
$UNP
$WELL
$SCHD
$ROKU
$MPC
$VTV
$MMM
$TRV

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

One of my favorite @naval quotes.

Memorize it.

Do every single thing every single day.

It is impossible to live a bad life if doing so.

[CMT @ctate480]

Be like Pradeep, don’t get your balls crushed

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Nothing happened. The balls did not get crushed

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Nothing happened. The balls did not get crushed

[CMT @ctate480]

@ashtradin These are all oversold and can easily run hard but I would guess the 10 week is where they hit resistance. I see a lot of names with a 10 week sloping sideways to down

[CMT @ctate480]

@ashtradin If we go lower, it’s likely going to be a continued unwind in the previous leaders

$MU $SNDK $WDC $STX
$LITE $CIEN $AAOI $AXTI

To name a few

[CMT @ctate480]

@ashtradin I can the semblance of a Wyckoff Spring / U&R setting up in the indices so I’m with you but hard to get excited with how poor individual charts look

A follow through day could change all of this but not in short term (1-2 months) imo

[CMT @ctate480]

@ashtradin

[CMT @ctate480]

@PurpleDrink_LLC Yes

[CMT @ctate480]

3 month RS Scan filtered by 50 day Avg $ volume:

Shades of tech in - $DELL $AMD $HPE
Software - $FTNT $PANW $SNOW $NET
Banks galore
Oil & Gas / Energy
Sector ETF's galore

$AAPL
$AMD
$DELL
$JPM
$UNH
$PANW
$DIA
$BAC
$XLE
$XLF
$SNOW
$XLV
$ABBV
$HPE
$XBI
$KRE
$NET
$CVS
$PYPL
$VLO
$UNP
$WELL
$SCHD
$ROKU
$MPC
$VTV
$MMM
$TRV

[CMT @ctate480]

Ill post the 3 month RS Scan below but its pretty easy to summarize what's going on and the picture is pretty bleak:

The leading stocks of this previous cycle have broken the 10 week moving average on volume and are living well below the 10W, a clear signal of a significant trend change. This is occurring meanwhile the defensive stocks (Biotech, Consumer Staples) that appeared to benefit from market rotation are now showing signs of weakness. The market indices have also taken on considerable distribution, ending the previous power trend.

I am optimistic in the sense that a couple months of consolidation could lead to our next major opportunity, but realistic in the sense that the market has significantly changed its tune and additional correction through time or price may be necessary. Time will tell but cash is king as I have not taken a trade in the 5 weeks. I am enjoying the break from having significant or any exposure and am in no rush to play the backside moves of these names.

The real money is made on the upside so go study, refresh, vacation, and enjoy life outside of markets. That is the best and easiest way to stick with our #1 priority:

Portfolio Management Order of Priority:
1. Capital Preservation
2. Consistent Profitability
3. Pursuit of Superior Returns

[CMT @ctate480]

@PurpleDrink_LLC How this guy raised $100M is beyond me

[CMT @ctate480]

@Peoplewish Double down cuz Jonah said the fundamentals are unchanged

[CMT @ctate480]

“We should see some green this week”

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

Not a great day for ai stocks including the memory companies… but after the close we have Anthropic announcing a major LTA with Samsung and SK Hynix… then in the past couple hours $NVDA announces a $500B deal with SK Group which includes SK Telecom (2GW data center) and SK Hynix (HBM)… https://t.co/3odBCkpg2E

The weekend just got a little better 🎉

Curious to see how the KOSPI opens on Sunday night… I’m thinking we should see some green 🙏🏼

*We are long $NVDA and $SKHY (in multiple ways) at @FirstWaveFund

[Dan Zanger @DanZanger]

Brutal market conditions that still remain best in cash. Cash is King!

[CMT @ctate480]

Self reminder to track accumulation distribution on indices and leaders daily.

Trend changes come at you fast

[CMT @ctate480]

"Four days of distribution, if correctly spotted over a two or three week period, are sometimes enough to turn a previously advancing market into a decline"

[CMT @ctate480]

If we’re in month 1 of distribution or market correction and people are already blowing up, how is it going to look if this lasts for 3 months? 6 months?