Cutbot

We do innovative online media and public affairs monitoring. Are we allowed to say it's the best? Get in touch for a free trial.

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@scottymacadamia @ThereIsNoTim @britainelects @Survation Yep, sorry; we’ve not updated it. Would recommend other similar tools for now at least.

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@Hetzner_Online why so unreliable this month?

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@jruddy99 @kevverage *clears throat* https://t.co/2QbGPBmZlU

[PubAffairs @PubAffairs]

Week in #Scotland politics reviewed by @mrjamesmack @cutbot: "The only game in town" --> https://t.co/OJqqM7ForH #indyref2 #brexit

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We're fine, but thanks for thinking of us. https://t.co/ofpzmNYagb

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A valid correction! https://t.co/4rSXCWf2Wl

[Adam Clarke @AClarke1984]

@cutbot not quite. We would have picked up list seats in Lothian & MSF.

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And we got the Greens almost right, just failing to spot the meteoric rise of @ross_greer

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Add in the surprise Tory wins in Aberdeenshire West and Edinburgh Central and that's much of the reason for overestimating the SNP.

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If the Lib Dems hadn't won Edinburgh West and NE Fife, we'd have got them just right, for example.

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Here's the actual map. Overall, the differences are largely attributable to those constituency surprises. https://t.co/QHBnYwuSFv

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Finally put the #sp16 results into our forecaster, and this is what it shows. https://t.co/F0nMhILlhq

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@DavidSterratt Yup, still think there's a strong argument for it. Could have a probability chart separately, plus a likelihood on each seat.

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@DavidSterratt the tech side is @aaroncrane btw

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@DavidSterratt The best guess for those ten seats individually is still that tiny majority. Could show both but it's complex and confusing.

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@DavidSterratt There's a tension between constituency and overall projections, though. Monte Carlo ideal for overall: but not the other.

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Nervous about #sp16? Why not have a play with our vote forecaster? That'd definitely help. https://t.co/QOhuQMhRFM

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@DavidSterratt We discussed exactly that. It would be better in many ways. Ten seats with a majority of <50? Surely only 5 seats likely.

[Thomas Hefferin @tomhefferin]

#sp16 Polling Avg's through @cutbot
https://t.co/hJduzjgiCT

[Charles Oppenheim @CharlesOppenh]

Why a new European © exception should go beyond text and data mining
https://t.co/FpfDmXznDx

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@WeAreThe59 @TheScotsman And our maths for the Green constituency candidates was necessarily all a bit
¯\_(ツ)_/¯