Narl53

ahh

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe @samshirazim @StateNavigate @allieatstatenav @marywitha4 @jhkersting @BarbaraComstock @Rogers4Neighbor You put in 3255 ED votes in Falls Church instead of 2355

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe IMO, the bigger issue for Ds is that they still do better with these voters than white Loudounites, and the Loudoun margin will drop. But it's not really new that nonwhite turnout drops in VA off-year elections!

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe What's the logic of low Indian-American and Muslim turnout => Spanberger doing worse with them?

It seems directionally unsubstantiated. You might actually have a stronger case that Spanberger's margin will be stronger if low-propensity voters drop off!

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe @CMargaritez Look at NE corner of Arlington county. Those voters are functionally identical demographically to those in McLean but their turnout is much, much lower. That's a red flag that satellite availability or something is causing the discrepancy. Not that Dems have an Arlington problem

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe @CMargaritez In that case, you would think the western half (heavily white) would not have a turnout problem. If FFX looks fine and LoCo and Arlington look low the takeaway should not be "Democrats have a turnout problem" it should be there is some systemic differences causing the variability

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@JacobRubashkin Wow, you're good at this

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@elonmusk Cry harder bitch

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@CA_120 @DaveMinCA Hm. Seems like that could be counteracted by the big R spike before the election? Or were those election day votes.

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@notlarrysabato in VA? or the country

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe When has Poquoson ever not turned out lol

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ZaidJilani Did you see Joe Rogan and Elon Musk saying this exact same thing today?

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@SidKhurana3607 Mongolian?

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe Do you have the link to the VDOE count of provisionals in each county?

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@TCDriller99 @dhonz_m @HWLavelleMaps @Thorongil16 @GalenMetzger1 Given that the last Pueblo drop was pretty much even, how do you figure he'll net 2500?

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@umichvoter I don't see the new numbers the NYT has on the county site. Might be a glitch?

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@realtonysm1th https://t.co/9Ec4nvhq4L
Arlington numbers likely much higher

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@TylerDinucci ?????

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ChazNuttycombe Youngkin did not win 21 districts on this map

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@DrewSav That's an 8 point underperformance in the county compared to 2017. Suggests a win of ~5 points...

[Narl53 @cwgNAS]

@ArlingtonVotes Any more turnout updates coming?