Will Chen

[看不懂的SOL @DtDt666]

梁文峰胆子真大
四小时投资人会议实录流出，我发现他的预判真大胆：

1）英伟达那套生态一年内就废了，华为的卡一年后完全能平替英伟达，贵一倍两倍都无所谓。

2）谁想着靠AI暴利谁就死，拿得少的人一定打败拿得多的人，OpenAI就是因为想独占才被围攻。

3）奇点不是什么爆炸，是个漫长的温水煮青蛙过程，而且顺序不能乱——先解决持续学习，再到自我迭代，最后才做机器人。

4）Ai技术路线是这样：语言模型 → 思维链(CoT) → Agent → 持续学习 → 智能奇点(自我迭代) → 具身智能

现在处于Agent走一半，持续学习是下一个必须跨过去的坎，跨过去才能进入AI自己迭代自己的奇点阶段。

5）克制是核心战略，主动放弃C端流量争夺战，不做超级App，短期商业化只是保底，全部资源主线聚焦AGI。

6）中美AI差距就一年，但国内只用了人家二十分之一的算力，人才根本不缺，差的就是卡。

7）公司一半的核心研究员都在标数据，这就是现阶段最重要的事，高端数据瓶颈不是钱，是时间。

8）最坏情况技术冻结了，光卖API也够撑起一家上市公司，商业化根本不用愁。

9）不加班、没KPI、没组织架构，全靠愿景驱动，因为做研究就得松弛，逼太紧反而没用。

10）国产芯片产能问题今年明年后年都卡，但五年后肯定解决了。

11）国内几十家做基模的公司太多了，最后就剩三四家，而且谁也别想有暴利。

12）视频生成、3D、世界模型这些东西跟智能上限没关系，纯粹是商业噱头，坚决不做。

13）员工期权拿够、团队稳住，AGI（通用人工智能）就一定能成，其他全是小事，最多晚个一年半载。

14）中国AI最终拼的是“系统性便宜”，就跟制造业一样，成本优势是结构性的。

15）持续学习要是先做出来了，通用智能就很简单，让AI自己帮自己研究就行。

最后，梁文峰最大胆的判断：

「拿得少的人，一定打败拿得多的人。」

他说哪怕你还没赚到钱，只要脑子里想的是“我要垄断、我要暴利”，你就已经输了。OpenAI今天的困境就源于此，当初想独占AI，所以一定会被无数人围攻。反过来，DeepSeek主动放弃暴利、最强模型开源、不抢用户、不搞垄断，反而赢面最大。这套逻辑把整个商业世界的常识都翻过来了

[Rocky @Rocky_Bitcoin]

这轮提前布局了不少 $TSLA 股票，算是我目前第一大仓位，众所周知，我和团队十分看好下半年人形机器人赛道的爆发，作为AI的物理躯壳，是目前尚未爆发的板块，而特斯拉作为这个赛道的王牌🃏，成为我们押注的核心。但财报出来，依旧跌的很痛！

但仔细研究完财报，我反而觉得现在的股价回调，正是极佳的布局时机！

从财报来看，已经看出特斯拉正在加速转型中，旧核心业务“卖车”虽然承压，但新核心业务“储能+FSD”刚好接住，正在快速增长，而未来“Robotaxi+Optimus”才是爆发的新增长点，成就5万亿美金市值的核心！

先来看看营收，特斯拉二季度交出了一份算是不错的营收答卷。营收高达 282.36 亿美元，同比增速突破 20%，创下三年来的最高增速，过去 12 个月的总收入历史性地突破了 1000 亿美元大关。汽车交付量创二季度新高、服务业务暴增 50%、FSD 订阅用户突破 148 万，哪怕是资本开支翻倍导致自由现金流两年来首次转负，其表现也远好于市场最悲观的预期。如👇图1。

然而，华尔街在盘后却选择抛售，股价一度跌超 5%。原因很简单，这是一份典型的营收强劲、利润偏弱的财报。毛利率降至 16.8%（低于预期的 19.4%），运营利润仅 3.98 亿美元（不足预期的三分之一），EPS 更是直接低于预期35%。

华尔街看到了短期利润率的承压，但如果只是把特斯拉当作一家单车利润出现波动的汽车制造公司，那就是典型的见树不见林。在我看来，市场当下的短期恐慌，正好提供了一个绝佳的下场机会。🧐

1️⃣首先讲讲华尔街在恐慌什么？

华尔街对特斯拉二季度业绩的抛售逻辑十分直白，虽然规模放大了，但经营杠杆没有释放。

单车收入下滑、汽车价格战持续，再加上研发与算力投运的集中释放，直接挤压了利润空间。管理层在财报中明确提到，公司正处于规模最大、最令人振奋的投资阶段，并且未来两三年的资本开支将持续处于高位，今年将超 250 亿美元。

这目前是资本市场的短期矛盾所在，也是造成盘后股价抛售的原因。华尔街想要现成的现金流和确定性的利润率，而马斯克想要的，是用激进的资本开支直接锁定人形机器人与自动驾驶的物理垄断。

你看看，为了在得州超级工厂上线 Coterx 2 超级计算机（算力超 115MW），为了停用弗里蒙特工厂的 Model S/X 产线去全力改造第一代 Optimus 量产线，这些前置投入都会直接体现在当期的损益表上。AI自动驾驶和物理机器人的投入是前置且重资产的，而商业化的变现则是后置且指数级的。华尔街按季度看账本，自然会觉得当下每一美元收入转化为利润的效率太低；但站在长期投资者的视角，这正是特斯拉在为下一次飞跃积蓄动能。

2️⃣真正的重头戏：Robotaxi 与 Optimus 的商业化爆发点

我觉得特斯拉财报中最值得关注的绝对不是短期毛利率，而是特斯拉在机器人与自动驾驶上展现出的快速转型的执行力。

• Robotaxi：从叙事全面迈入商业落地

二季度，特斯拉不仅在得州奥斯汀扩大了无人监督的 Robotaxi 运营区域，7 月更是在迈阿密、奥兰多、坦帕推出了无人监督乘车服务，并在得州超级工厂内让员工先行体验 Cybercab。更重要的是，FSD 订阅用户同比大增 56% 至 148 万，超预期近 6%。

这标志着特斯拉正在完成从纯硬件销售向硬件+出行服务+软件订阅的商业模式重塑。一旦监管和技术边界在未来 12-18 个月内被全面打通，边际成本极低的 Robotaxi 车队将带来惊人的现金流弹性，届时整车销售带来的毛利率波动将变得微不足道。

• Optimus：人形机器人领域的ChatGPT时刻即将到来

市场严重低估了弗里蒙特工厂停用 Model S/X 产线改建 Optimus 第一代生产线的战略意义。这表明 Optimus 已经跨越了实验室阶段，正式进入到了量产与真实场景数据采集的闭环。

人形机器人的潜在市场规模是数十万亿美元级别的，远远超过汽车市场。特斯拉将汽车制造的规模化工程能力、Cortex 2 的强大算力以及 FSD 训练出来的具身智能算法三者结合，几乎是目前全球唯一能够真正落地通用人形机器人量产的企业。一旦 2026 年实现大规模投产，Optimus 赋予特斯拉的估值空间将是现有的数倍。

3️⃣终局思考：Tesla 与 SpaceX 的合并将是大概率事件

我们在搜集资料和评估特斯拉的长期价值时，还有一个极易被忽略但概率极高的大逻辑，特斯拉与SpaceX的潜在合并和生态深度重组，这将是巨大潜在利好！

无论是从马斯克对 AI 算力、能源、通信和具身智能的全局布局来看，还是从未来商业化落地的技术交集来看，两大巨头的融合几乎是必然的趋势：

• 算力与能源闭环：SpaceX 的星链提供全球无死角的极低延迟通信，与特斯拉的 Robotaxi 车队及全球分布式存储天然互补。

• 材料与制造协同：SpaceX 在顶级材料学，如星舰的火箭级不锈钢及耐热材质、极致轻量化制造上的工程经验，正在直接倒灌给 Optimus 和 Cybercab。

• 资本与战略统筹：马斯克曾多次表达过将旗下 AI、太空与硬科技资产进行整合的意图。若未来 Tesla 与 SpaceX 在资本层面发生深度绑定或合并。那么特斯拉将不再单纯是一家 汽车&AI & 机器人公司，而是直接进化为掌控地球与近地空间基础设施的终极硬科技帝国。这一潜在利好不仅能彻底打开估值天花板，也将为股东带来前所未有的资产防御力与溢价空间。

所以最后，综合研判来看，我们认为特斯拉属于短期的折价，但长期属于大金矿，反而是一次绝佳的布局机会！🧐

在自动驾驶与机器人大规模商业化的前夜，特斯拉当下的价格下挫理论上不能把它定义为基本面的崩塌，而是前置投入期与高回报期之间的认知时差。汽车业务保持了极为扎实的底盘和现金流入，而真正决定特斯拉未来5万亿市值归属的 Robotaxi、Optimus 正在加速推进，这才是重中之重！

对于看懂了这个大局观的投资者而言，当下的回调，不过是市场再次双手奉上的一份折扣筹码。📊🧐

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[Peter DiCarlo @pdicarlotrader]

$MSTR holding macro Smart Money Zone

Historically this area marks the long term bottom about 65% of the time.

First resistance is around $130 at Weekly Fair Value.

A clean break above makes the long term bottom case even stronger.

From there, Bull Cycle would confirm.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

#5 $OKLO

I strongly suggest everyone to learn about stage analysis.

Stage 1- Accumulation
Stage 2- Mark-Up
Stage 3- Distribution
Stage 4- Mark-Down

Repeat.

Oklo is between Stage 4 & 1.

Save this one. Every stock does this.

[Léon @Leonizm351]

Enerji ve Frekans herşeyin cevabını verir. Organları iyileştiren el mudraları.

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

Saw many arguing 2-2.5 years ago that miners were no good & should be avoided. I was saying back then that we were all just a bunch of lucky bastards and it was time to pile into miners. The move up from those lows after that was very strong. Next big move starts above gray area.

[Efosa Idemudia @Venaldokelvin]

@MrPitbull07 I'm sorry

[Sqeaky Mouse @TheSqeakyMouse]

Silver’s retest of support confirms the move to $120 was likely just the breakout and the real run is yet to come.

[Darwin. @darw1nsz]

10 Hábitos Que Convierten a los Hombres con Baja Testosterona en Bestias de Alta Testosterona.

(Hazlos Todos los Días)

1. Come huevos (La Fábrica de T)

[Xanny @Xanny555]

Reading between the lines of their early 2026 strategic moves, MARA's next major deal announcement will almost certainly involve Nuclear Energy, specifically tailored for AI inference and High Performance Computing.

Here are the highest-probability deals $MARA is quietly lining up:

1. The European Nuclear Co-Location Deal
With Whom: EDF (Électricité de France).
Where: France 🇫🇷
MARA didn't just acquire a 64% stake in the cloud computing firm Exaion for its software.
They bought it because Exaion was born out of EDF, Europe's undisputed heavyweight in nuclear energy. MARA explicitly established its regional headquarters in Paris, citing the country's genuine electricity abundance and state backed digital autonomy initiatives.
Expect MARA to announce a direct, behind the meter co location agreement to build an AI/HPC data center directly adjacent to an EDF nuclear facility.
This allows them to bypass multi year European grid connection queues and secure 100% clean base load power.

2. The Starwood "Gigawatt Campus" Reveal
With Whom: Starwood Digital Ventures & a major U.S. base load energy provider (like Constellation Energy or Vistra).
Where: The PJM Interconnection (Pennsylvania/Ohio/Jersey) or ERCOT (Texas).
In Q1 2026, MARA announced a Joint Venture with Starwood to co develop 1 GW of AI/HPC capacity. Starwood brings the institutional real estate capital, but you cannot build a 1 GW campus on a standard grid connection without massive delays.
MARA could announce the physical location and the Power Purchase Agreement for this exact 1 GW campus. Following the playbook of @amazon acquiring Talen Energy's nuclear data center, MARA will likely announce a site secured by a dedicated nuclear or massive-scale hybrid renewable source.

3. The Middle East Sovereign AI Pivot
With Whom: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth entities (expanding the existing Zero Two JV).
Where: UAE 🇦🇪
MARA has already proven they can operate 250 MW of liquid cooled infrastructure in the extreme heat of the desert.
The UAE is aggressively positioning itself as the global capital for AI development (evidenced by @Microsoft's $1.5B investment in G42).
$MARA could announce a massive expansion of their Middle East footprint, upgrading their existing immersion cooled Bitcoin mining sites into sovereign AI inference clusters.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Gold Cycles are generally the cleanest out there. And I believe Sept will offer up another amazing opportunity to load up again.

[Fang @FLMdongtianfudi]

付鹏解读黄金价格的底层逻辑，解读美元、人民币，看完就懂了！收藏

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

Uranium miners did 580% in its baby bull move.
Second bull market move is in the making.
The chart below offers comfort to those who are just coming into the market - it is just getting started.☢️

Note on the chart below that the big blue breakout is here, as posted in the linked post would come. Plus, also note that the chart also has a backtest plus a higher high after the breakout high, i.e. the blue breakout is now also confirmed. Means the uranium ETF URA is in huge breakout-mode vs SPX, from a very symmetrical, blue, 9-year inverse head & shoulders pattern. And, it means that uranium from here on will outperform the stock market. Which it has done since covid lows.

The glorious commodities bull market will be the greatest opportunity in your lifetime to get out of the rat race.
As said now since called the commodities lows 6 years ago
- DO NOT MISS IT!

Caught all major lows & highs at the service for uranium since calling the 2020 bear market low, in real-time. Try doing that without charts!☢️

And down the road, commodities will be the only game in town.
#joinus at https://t.co/dZoc2yuE1z for real guidance during the whole bull market
Go with the service that has, actually, been on track all along.
Following the right people is absolutely vital.

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

Been saying for years that capital is now rotating into commodities. Been posting e.g. these historical big ratio chart turns, plus their breakouts, in real-time.
The commodities bull is end of rainbow stuff.
And, down the road, commodities will be the only game in town. #joinus

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

Been posting that this ratio was bottoming. And with silver´s huge move lately, it broke out above blue line.
Next big silver move starts at blue backtest.

As been saying - these market opportunities are extremely rare, maybe once or twice in a lifetime, so make the most of it.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Besides the gold Cycle count, the tell is Silver. It never holds up like this 5 months after a blowoff unless it's preparing for the next move. In a bull market silver advances via blowoff moves generally 12-24 months apart.

[DiscusFish @bitfish]

我从十几岁开始长白头发，以为是遗传，没当回事。
创业之后压力上来，白发肉眼可见地加速

直到做了基因检测：MTHFR TT纯合突变。
这不是普通的「少白头」，是身体亮的黄灯——
甲基化低效 + 抗氧化失衡

搞清楚通路后开始靶向干预，现在白头发几乎没有了

核心逻辑：
白发的80%杠杆在两件事——
抗氧化+ 甲基供体
剩下20%是压力管理

如果你也年轻时就开始长白发，先查MTHFR。毛囊还在，种子就还在

[看不懂的SOL @DtDt666]

https://t.co/5XLRVyooM3

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

Been saying for years that we will see at least $250-$300 oil during this commodities bull market.
And in the linked post below I raised that target to $369.

Oil was at $58.40 in the linked post below. Now at $64.20.
The linked post nailed the low.

The 4.5 year red bullish falling wedge is probably a halfway pattern, with a price target of $369 (green lines measured move).

Since I called the commodities bear market low almost 6 years ago, I have been saying that this commodities bull market is the best opportunity you will ever have in life to get out of the rat race.

When that 2nd pink head & shoulders pattern broke down just before the Covid-crash, I understood that the huge blue head & shoulders pattern was probably going to play out too. And it very much did. That is the kind of guidance that makes a difference.

Following the right people is absolutely vital.
#joinus https://t.co/dZoc2yuE1z #oott #oilprice

[AusMini @aus_mini]

震惊💥这位法国放射科医生公开表示，他个人主张用长时间禁食（如30天）代替化疗来治疗癌症，并称据他的观察，约50%的癌症死亡是由化疗等激进治疗引起的，而不是癌症本身💥

“如果我得了癌症，我不会去医院。”

“我见过太多人死于化疗，而不是癌症本身。”

“我会禁食30天，并停止工作。”