Cycle Investment Strategy

Long-term cycle, value, technical analysis; trading & investing || Become a sub:

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

The inflation numbers yesterday marked the end of the bond rally. TLT looks like absolute dog shit on the weekly candle. You either bid hard here in bonds or this little bear market rally in TLT is over already and the oil and inflation trade will continue.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@kinseyfineart 💯

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

$OIH pulled back into its breakout zone, right where the multi-year range once capped it. That flip, from resistance to support, is the test that matters now. Hold it, and the whole structure gains credibility; normal behavior after a major breakout, not a reason to abandon the thesis and a few weeks of consolidation don’t undo a turn this big.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

$OIH is consolidating after its breakout from the multi-year range, building a flag before its next move higher.
Zooming out, this is what the early innings of a structural cycle look like. Years of underinvestment across the entire #oil services space are now meeting a world that still runs on - and needs more - energy. Capital is only just beginning to rotate back into a sector the market spent a decade writing off. As we said back in September: this cycle has only just begun.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@RonStoeferle The hollowing out of Germany’s industrial base through the relocation of manufacturing by German listed companies is not something the market dislikes so it seems

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

The uptrend is intact, but the next month rarely moves fast. After past signals like this one, the first month was basically a coin flip. Patience pays more after Dec 18, when the seasonal window opens.
https://t.co/EPG0LrUXig

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

$XLE with the backtest — faster than we’d have liked, but pullbacks like this are part of how healthy uptrends tend to develop. Sentiment is very low and last week hurt; no way around it. But this is exactly where the higher timeframes earn their keep: zoom out, and the bigger picture stays fully intact, with price now retesting the trendline it broke out from. A bounce from here would be a bullish signal for a fast continuation of the uptrend.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

Big breakout for $XLE on the monthly chart as well, gaining some real momentum here. The path stays clear — while keeping in mind that consolidations in a market like this will always occur along the way!

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

#Oil sold off sharply into early November, rejected from the upper end of its range near 106 and is currently sitting on horizontal support. Now it’s a question of whether this support zone holds or we slide to the next one lower — either way, nothing about the bigger thesis changes here. That said, we’d expect a bounce around these levels and see the pullback as part of the larger uptrend.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

This will very likely be a super strong monthly close for #oil. It'll be interesting to see what November brings and whether we break free above the next resistance range.
Once again, the elevated price level is confirming itself over a sustained period — exactly the higher regime we’ve been pointing to, rather than just a spike that fades. Clear that past the 106 level, there’s little standing in the way before the old highs come back into play.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

https://t.co/y7or0DQ48E

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

Subs check your inbox or the link below, the new weekend report is out!
Have a great start to the week!

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@marketplunger1 low multiple due to „head risk“

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

A step down of Jensen is exactly what the AI trade needs right now 💀

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: US intelligence reportedly believes Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had a “romantic relationship” with a woman suspected of spying for China.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

NAAIM went up. Asset managers bought the dip in this sell off. Not what bulls want to see.

[Katusa Research @KatusaResearch]

Measured in silver, oil is about as cheap as it's been since 1980

The last time a barrel fell under one ounce, oil gained 625% on silver over the next 28 months.

It just did it again in February

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

Very true

[Illimitable Man (IM) @SovereignIM]

Much of your adulthood will be spent dodging miserable people who think they're smarter than you because you're hopeful when they're not. They mistake your strength of spirit for naivete, and preach what has made them despair like it's wisdom. Everything is spiritual warfare.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@DannyDayan5 @eliant_capital If you assume that they are smart money, but they are a fade since 08. At least what our data shows

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@MarhelmData What capital gains, sir?

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@markminervini Nasdaq is already >15% down from the peak right now.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt this is the 3rd correction "that is 1998"

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

Nasdaq nearly -14% from highs now. This is becoming something more significant. Good to see. Trading becomes much easier after a really good rinse. Getting there.

[Cycle Investment Strategy @cycle_strategy]

@agnostoxxx Years were you go ow energy have to be measured in dog years