Max Rockatansky

PM. Macro, long/short equity & credit. Not advice.

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

MS PB this morning: "HFs Unwind Index Level Hedges at Fastest Clip Since Early April Mkt Recovery. HFs were large net buyers... driven largely by long additions, though HFs did also unwind shorts albeit in smaller amounts."

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Nonsense. This is Morgan Stanley's prime book. Goldman's will look similar.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Hedge Funds have increased their short exposure to the highest level in AT LEAST the last decade 🚨🚨

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Nonsense...

MS PB this morning: "HFs Unwind Index Level Hedges at Fastest Clip Since Early April Mkt Recovery. HFs were large net buyers... driven largely by long additions, though HFs did also unwind shorts albeit in smaller amounts."

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Positioning has never been more over-extended

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Back for the first time since 2/23, the "Hindenburg" hit yesterday.

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Hindenberg yesterday. Last instances were 11/5/25 and 2/7/25 (signals >1.6% within 2% of SPX ATH)...

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@prpl8

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@calvinfroedge tbf... few would be very sharp after 24hrs of negotiations on an international stage while traveling abroad

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@karmabadger_eth https://t.co/Ir8FbC5DWq

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Notwithstanding Retail's recent behavioral shifts, positioning remains very full. We have seen nothing resembling capitulation.

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

Both Citadel and JPM noting a change in the behavior of Retail over the past month...

"Today’s relief rally brings confirmation that the shift in retail behavior that we have observed over the past month is persisting: retail moved from ‘buying the dip’ (e.g. this time last year), to now skipping the dips, selling into rallies, and positioning more defensively, report. Overall, retail activity remained extremely subdued this week, driven by net selling in single stocks and weak ETF purchases. Even more so today, despite oil posting its largest decline since 2020 and VIX breaking below 20, intraday retail flows showed no signs of strengthening." (JPM)

"The most notable change has been a decisive rotation into puts. Over the past two weeks, total retail put activity has surged to the 99th percentile relative to all other 10-day trading periods since the start of 2020. Call activity has simultaneously fallen into the 70th percentile (in just the 13th percentile versus the past 1 year). This divergence culminated in a rare inflection point on April 2nd, when more puts than calls were traded by retail at Citadel Securities – only the sixth such occurrence in the history of our platform." (Citadel)

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@realKunalAShah or they're using the negotiations as a peaceful moment in time to scout and prepare

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@tallnfat data?

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@eekyboo I post them from time to time... the data is from the CoT and MorgStan

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@eekyboo Strait of Hormuz

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@prpl8 i’m rooting for you 😁😉

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

With oil stubbornly below $100, the energy specialists of '26 are increasingly looking like the freight experts of '25...

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

In '20, many saw Covid coming but ignored... and lived to regret.

In '25, freight "experts" warn of out-of-stocks... and proved to be bullsh*t.

In '26, energy specialists warn of $150 oil... Feels like everyone is anchored to the '25 experience and forgot '20. Not sure...

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@StockNews690137 it just reminded me of trading through these periods

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@stevehou We'll see... those flows have been the primary dip-buying support for years. Fading retail hasn't worked since pre-covid.

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@KrisAbdelmessih dare to dream...

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@endless_frank We'll see... those flows have been the primary dip-buying support for years. Fading retail hasn't worked since pre-covid.

[Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher]

@realpristinecap intelligent... nice prom pic