Profits High
Employment High
Buybacks High
Deferrals High
Debt Service Low
Spreads Low
Taxes Low
Valuations High
HH Stock Allocation High(est)
US Stock Weight High(est)
2025 seems like its going to be a fun year, but sometime this Presidential term it will all roll over
I started ML Dec 1994, ended up specializing in hedging concentrated stock positions
goals: keep some upside, hedge downside, get cash, defer taxes, avoid reporting
I am not up to date on all the laws but i will tell you this:
if you have highly appreciated tech stock now is the PERFECT time to do a collar [plus loan]
insane call skew makes it so advantageous
i can tell you at least a dozen stories of proposals i made to hedge > 50 million (year 1999 dollars) where the guys lost essentially everything
a few of these guys were CEOs that should have known better
do not waste this chance
I came up with my "In Calls We Trust" mantra in 2020 due to the idea that Fed put + overwriting & collar funds were giving a great opportunity to buy persistently cheap calls
well, you guys have taken it too far, sorry
Todayโs semiconductor melt-up obviously resembles post-1998 behavior (upper clip). ROC is well short of the 76-week reading at the March 2000 top (middle clip), but well ahead based on the 61-week interval since April 2025 (lower clip). Trailing stops, anyone?
๐๏ธEp231. Car Wars: China vs the West
#spotify https://t.co/LswQeD8qcp
#applepodcast https://t.co/d28wFPPtZY
@gerardreid14 and @MegaWattXinfo welcome Michael Dunne @dunne_insights to discuss the state of the Auto industry. China, Electrification, Autonomy.