Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal? It's a hard question to answer, but thanks to https://t.co/NncPX9MkQg, I was able to perform some ideal point estimation. The procedure was relatively simple. I took all positions tracked and coded them as 3 if the cardinal was in favor, 2 if they were ambiguous, 1 if opposed, and NA if we have no idea. I then removed cardinals who had fewer than 3 public positions. This data in hand, I ran a Bayesian Ordinal IRT model on the resultant cardinal-issue matrix. The results are attached, the longer version for all cardinals in the sample and the short version subsetting to only the "papabile." The results make sense---Zuppi, Parolin, and Tagle are among the most liberal; Sarah and Eijk are the only serious conservative contenders.
The votes are in on 🇰🇿 & 🇰🇮 #UNGA79 resolution! 169 states voted to help victims of nuclear weapons testing and use. 6 states abstained, while 4 (DPRK 🇰🇵 France 🇫🇷 Russia 🇷🇺 UK 🇬🇧) voted no. #NuclearJustice 🌍
🌍 Looking forward to tomorrow's #UNGA79#FirstCommittee vote on #NuclearJustice! 🇰🇿 🇰🇮
📢 Read more about the resolution and its significance ⬇️⬇️
https://t.co/ybfWvC5tfd
Looking at who has endorsed Donald Trump shows the depth of his support within the Republican Party establishment writes @cyordan of @DrewUniversity https://t.co/SnWj8XZK0Y
The 2024 Presidential Election is nearly here. We've asked #DrewU faculty and staff to put it into perspective from their areas of expertise and research.
Carlos Yordan, Associate Professor of International Relations: https://t.co/is8kJE43j4
The 2024 Presidential Election is nearly here. We've asked #DrewU faculty and staff to put it into perspective from their areas of expertise and research.
G. Scott Morgan, Chair and Professor of Psychology: https://t.co/QdCFecFTAV
In my latest Substack, I analyze the #polls and explore why #Biden may not be able to remain in the race, if Democrats want to retain the presidency and expand their Congressional strength.
https://t.co/0I1NNNyyMx
The New York Times published a video in its opinion section on Arab Americans views of #Biden in #Michigan. Featured voters noted they would not support Biden & could vote for #Trump.
I wrote about this in my newsletter in February:
https://t.co/6LYkZ86v8G
One known unknown about a potential Harris candidacy is how well she would fare vs. Trump in the key swing states (AZ/GA/MI/NV/NC/PA/WI) relative to Biden
We have very little polling data on that, and most of what little data we do have is pretty dated (and obviously pre-debate)
Here is a crazy idea: @JoeBiden should offer @realDonaldTrump a pardon on all federal charges. In exchange, #Trump agrees to stop his candidacy and #Biden also agrees to end his campaign. Both leaders would allow their delegates to select their party’s presidential nominees.
The debate provided both campaigns plenty of clips to push their narratives in future commercials.
But the images of Biden’s many of his foibles will only reinforce Americans fear that Biden is too old for a second term.
The @DNC has to have a serious conversation with @JoeBiden and his campaign. I would bet that this is the only debate in this cycle.
Again, Trump pushed a ton of lies but he was able to hit Biden hard on immigration and the economy - two critical issues.