Cyrina @cyrinathomas - Twitter Profile

3 days ago

@toddsaunders @HubSpot I’m using QuickBooks crm. It’s awful but no extreme pricing to worry about surprising me for an essential feature 🥹

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cyrinathomas retweeted

SMB Attorney

@SMB_Attorney

4 days ago

What does AI mean for professional services firms (law, accounting, consulting, etc)? There are three types of projects: 3. brains (high complexity; cutting edge) 2. gray hair (complex; stakes high) 1. procedural (routine) It means that more of the level 2 matters are becoming level 1 or 1.5 matters. No impact on level 3 projects yet. Many level 1 projects can be done by consumers directly. 98% of firms operate on levels 1 and 2. Those that operate on level 1 alone are in danger and need to push up market. Certain components of level 2/3 projects will become level 1 components. All firms (1-3) need to invest heavily in the *responsible* use of AI or they are in danger.

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cyrinathomas retweeted

Hedgie

@HedgieMarkets

5 days ago

🦔The internet was real. Most of the companies built on it during the dot-com era went bankrupt anyway. Amazon went from $107 to $7 and Cisco never recovered its high. The technology survived but most of the business models didn't. I've been thinking about that a lot lately... My Take The parallels to where we are now are hard to ignore. Massive infrastructure buildout outpacing actual demand (fiber optic then, data centers now). Unprofitable companies going public at peak hype (SpaceX is already underwater a month after the largest IPO in history). CEOs calling skeptics stupid (Son calling bubble talk "blasphemy" while his own credit rating gets downgraded). And vendor financing, where the seller lends money to the buyer to keep the cycle moving. Nvidia just launched a program to finance its own customers. In the late 1990s, telecom companies like Lucent and Nortel did the same thing. Both ended in some of the largest corporate bankruptcies in American history at the time. This one could be worse because of what's underneath the equity layer. The dot-com bubble was mostly stocks. This one has private credit, project finance bonds, off-balance-sheet joint ventures, and insurance company money all stacked into data center infrastructure. Blue Owl froze investor withdrawals and is also funding 80% of Meta's $250 billion Louisiana campus. Oracle got downgraded to one notch above junk because half its backlog depends on OpenAI. Anthropic has $90 billion in compute leases and zero profit heading into an IPO. Chip stocks have erased $3.3 trillion since June. The technology is real and I use it every day. So was the internet in 1999. Whether the technology works was never in doubt. Whether the companies selling it can justify what investors are paying is a different question, and it's about to get answered in public filings. Hedgie🤗

HedgieMarkets's tweet photo. 🦔The internet was real. Most of the companies built on it during the dot-com era went bankrupt anyway. Amazon went from $107 to $7 and Cisco never recovered its high. The technology survived but most of the business models didn't. I've been thinking about that a lot lately...

My Take
The parallels to where we are now are hard to ignore. Massive infrastructure buildout outpacing actual demand (fiber optic then, data centers now). Unprofitable companies going public at peak hype (SpaceX is already underwater a month after the largest IPO in history).
CEOs calling skeptics stupid (Son calling bubble talk "blasphemy" while his own credit rating gets downgraded). And vendor financing, where the seller lends money to the buyer to keep the cycle moving. Nvidia just launched a program to finance its own customers. In the late 1990s, telecom companies like Lucent and Nortel did the same thing. Both ended in some of the largest corporate bankruptcies in American history at the time.

This one could be worse because of what's underneath the equity layer. The dot-com bubble was mostly stocks. This one has private credit, project finance bonds, off-balance-sheet joint ventures, and insurance company money all stacked into data center infrastructure.
Blue Owl froze investor withdrawals and is also funding 80% of Meta's $250 billion Louisiana campus. Oracle got downgraded to one notch above junk because half its backlog depends on OpenAI. Anthropic has $90 billion in compute leases and zero profit heading into an IPO. Chip stocks have erased $3.3 trillion since June. The technology is real and I use it every day. So was the internet in 1999. Whether the technology works was never in doubt. Whether the companies selling it can justify what investors are paying is a different question, and it's about to get answered in public filings.

Hedgie🤗

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Cyrina

@cyrinathomas

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