Moody’s has revised Nigeria’s sovereign outlook to “positive” from “stable”, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves and better-than-expected economic growth as factors improving the country’s ability to withstand external shocks. https://t.co/hsCw4yORi8
My largest position remains $JMIA, and I am only accumulating more. However, $CHA (Chagee, the teahouse company) is also quite interesting, and I have taken a position. IMO, a mix of a new store "honeymoon period", cannibalization due to density increases in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, and delivery subsidy wars has caused same store sales to appear sharply negative. However, the slowing of opening stores in greater China will cause the first two drags to dissipate. And the regulatory actions of SAMR should put an end to price dumping and corresponding subsidies that Chagee refused to participate in, and lead to "rational levels of competition". The company is priced as though it is in sharp terminal decline without giving sufficient credit to the magnitude and transience of those factors. I view it differently. My modeling has same store sales growth (-16% as of Q1) improving throughout 2026 and turning positive in second half of the year. They have $1.06B in cash (based on Q1 report and current FX rate). Enterpise value is only $911M. Non-GAAP TTM earnings ariund $258M; GAAP earnings are only $142M b/c of some IPO and SBC one-offs ($80M+) in Q2 2025, which will roll out of the TTM period after they report tomorrow morning. EV/EBIT nearing 4.
It reminds me a bit of some of the darkest days for Jumia's stock. In the case of Jumia, sharp currency devaluations masked the underlying improvements for the company. The lack of visibility and easy comparability made many investors uneasy. And it is exactly when I was buying rapidly.
Over a year ago, we opened our new warehouse at PK 24 in Anyama, strengthening our operations in Côte d’Ivoire.📦🇨🇮
This investment reflects our commitment to supporting the growth of e-commerce while giving customers access to an ever-expanding selection of products.
#Jumia #Ecommerce #Logistics #TBT
It's quite simple. In a decade, $JMIA will likely have an annual GMV larger than $10B. (Context: Q2 '26 for $MELI is $22B.) 7% net profit/GMV ratio. 30x PE. > $21B cap. At 140m shars, that's >$150/share. More than a 20-bagger.
Jumia Group CEO Francis Dufay recently spoke with @SeekingAlpha about Jumia’s Q2 2026 performance, business strategy, and the opportunities ahead for e-commerce across Africa. Read the full interview and analysis below. 👇 https://t.co/z3VYw7DGyJ #Jumia#Ecommerce#Africa