The biggest market expansions always leave distinct footprints before they actually happen.
SolSwizzle looks back at the legendary Solana run from eight dollars to twenty dollars in 2023 to show how heavy spot buying completely frontran the pump
How do you know when it is actually time to buy the dip.
"You only want to buy Bitcoin when it is fucking dead. Like my wife told me two weeks ago on Bitcoin was at 76K."
"That sentiment was terrible on crypto and I should start buying it again. And I had to tell her now. I was like, no, we are not."
Michael Saylor might actually be the biggest problem for Bitcoin right now.
Listen to why the Risk On pod believes his strategy has turned the top asset into a massive TradFi Ponzi and why he is becoming an existential threat to the whole network
Colby gets honest about how he knows a thesis is dead and the hilarious but painful conversations with his accountant that follow
"Well, usually I round trip something completely to zero. I mean, that is usually how I know. My accountant says, What happened to this thing?"
"It was valued at this and now it is valued at that. And I am like, Yeah, well, I believed it a little bit too strongly, apparently."
Colby shares the exact strategy behind capturing the upside of the AI mania and turning those early wins into the foundation for Aurora Capital.
"I wouldn't say I played out the trade perfectly, but I managed to capture that interesting upside. And that's really where my sort of VC company Aurora Capital was founded from those initial like just big run ups."
i’ll keep it simple.
my choice is @worldcoin $WLD and the reason is pretty straightforward in my head:
AI & robotics are merging the lines between man and machine
with:
1. more agentic AI becoming available.
2. automation of bots on multiple platforms.
3. more synthetic identities.
4. agents transacting autonomously.
we are seeing an increase in the need for proof of humanity.
this is not speculation, it's already happening...
there is an increase in phishing attacks; the fraudulent use of AI to generate slop content online and the need for governance of bots, all show proof that this is a real challenge that will continue to manifest.
So now the harder question becomes:
what does it mean to be ‘verifiably human’?
Worldcoin is attempting to answer that through decentralized proof-of-personhood:
- verify humanity
- preserve privacy
- let users custody their own identity
as the crypto space continues to develop, Worldcoin $WLD is acting as one basket, bridging a very large spectrum of alts. $World has stronger backers than others (a16z, Khosla, CB Ventures, the OpenAI adjacency via Sam Altman) and the ai proxy angle is still (imho) way way underpriced heading into 2027...
also having first mover advantage matters here
Worldcoin has captured the idea of biometric uniqueness (via irises) that no other project had the distribution, media leverage or incentive structure that would allow them to execute that at scale. millions have been onboarded from across the globe from that campaign alone... i remember being in portugal in 2024, randomly talking to normies about the airdrop they got. they weren’t crypto natives. they were just waiting for the price to pump lol
that kind of reach doesn’t happen accidentally.
the second layer of their project is zkID
that’s where it starts to get more interesting
if agents start behaving like humans online by posting, transacting, interacting etc they’ll def need some kind of portable identity?
think of something that acts as wallet + api key + social layer all in one. so when they move between interfaces, agents don’t need to reset context every time
an identity layer for all integrations would reduce redundancy and create a clean integration environment for discovery and establishing trust
crypto is interesting in how it can create a globally shared identity registry and provide a future platform for universal guaranteed income.
but then the question arises: how do you verify that a message is real?
friend texts “i’m stuck, send money.”
normally you’d:
1. check identity
2. call a mutual
3. confirm their voice
ai can spoof all three. zk proofs aren’t perfect. but they address the problem at the identity layer.
if identity becomes the bottleneck of the growing AI economy, then identity becomes more valuable than computational power.
now the counterpoint (because a thesis without opposition is weak)
do robotic functions require biometrically authenticated cryptocurrency identity?
probably not. robotic systems and applications do not need Worldcoin to operate
businesses will likely use secured permissioned systems and the vast majority will not be concerned with biometrics, such as iris scanners...
so if this thesis is pursued, "proof-of-personhood" could be created as a public utility
if this were to occur, then the following conditions would exist:
1. there would be significantly more AI agents than humans
2. the rates of fraud will have risen dramatically
3. all platforms will have adopted restrictions on access
4. universal guaranteed income becomes politically feasible
5. the quantity of verified identities will be less than the quantity of intelligence
and that last point is the one i keep coming back to
*if* intelligence becomes commoditized and keeps accelerating, human uniqueness gets diluted by comparison (we’re not fully there yet, but early signs are obvious)
in a world of abundant intelligence, uniquely human identity becomes scarce.
scarcity is what markets price.
now last but not least, the obvious pushback: token inflation
yes, Worldcoin has aggressive supply expansion. unlocks. emissions. call it predatory if you want
but ZOOM OUT
if the goal is to build a global human registry, you either subsidize distribution or you don’t scale.
the airdrop wasn’t charity at all. it was the cost of infrastructure
as early inflation is often the cost of bootstrapping network effects
the real question isn’t whether supply expands or not, it clearly does.
the real question is:
does global human onboarding compound faster than dilution?
if "proof-of-personhood" becomes a base layer primitive, early inflation looks like a distribution cost.
if it doesn’t, tokenomics become a headwind. that’s the bet
Colby explains how holding a public portfolio on fomo has become the ultimate belief vehicle to show true conviction in an early thesis
"Over time, it's almost been my own belief vehicle, right? In the sense of just flagging, oh my God, I'm really excited about these things."
"Before it was, you'd communicate in a telegram group. Now, all of a sudden, because of the timeline, I love fomo by the way, people they see your thesis, they see how often you're buying something, how early you got into the project."
You cannot build a good crypto product from an ivory tower.
Se breaks down why being actively in the trenches and using every single trading bot across Solana and Arbitrum is the only way to actually understand what users want
"If I followed my own advice I would be the greatest trader in the world. But 10 minutes into a trade I am like oh man something went wrong I am just going to cancel this trade. What public trading does is keeps you accountable. In some ways you are actually protecting yourself from yourself."
Se explains how sharing your thesis openly prevents you from panic selling and actually protects you from your own worst habits
"One of the core product decisions we made early on was we are not trying to be a terminal. We are not trying to give you all the information plus more. We are not trying to add new features on top of new features."
@seyong breaks down why the core product decision at fomo was to strictly limit information overload and create an on chain experience that actually makes sense
VibeTrading Ep.27 w/@seyong, co-founder of @fomo
We chat all about what has made fomo successful, adapting to the market and redefining social trading.
Also live on https://t.co/AdrT9UCubY
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and recent Fomo success
2:00 Product led growth
3:00 Building a social layer
5:05 Changing the behavior of traders
9:20 Building a minimalist interface
12:10 Addressing weaknesses
14:55 Front running metas
17:55 Trading style and favorite traders
21:00 Effects of trading publicly
23:30 Building social features
25:35 Future features
28:30 Data and revenues
30:00 Team philosophy
32:45 Retail forward growth
34:35 .fomo domains