MACROCAST: A Vintage-Consistent Time Series Foundation Model for Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting
Andrea Carriero, Davide Pettenuzzo, Shubhranshu Shekhar
https://t.co/LG6fNfFCoy [ππππ.π΄πΌ ππ.π°πΈ ππ.π»πΆ]
Links to resources.
π Paper: https://t.co/7Qhc4PyFxt
π» GitHub:
https://t.co/M5yeKWZWTK
π€ Hugging Face:
https://t.co/2IW7t0Gj1P
π Google Colab:
https://t.co/mlcvxYBUtm
I'd love to hear your thoughts and feedback!
#MachineLearning#TimeSeries#Forecasting
1/6
π Excited to share MacroCast: a vintage-consistent Time Series Foundation Model for real-time macroeconomic forecasting.
The biggest challenge with applying TSFMs to macro data is data leakage. MacroCast is the first TSFM designed to eliminate it entirely.
Despite being lightweight:
β‘ ~1M parameters
β‘ ~9 minutes to retrain per vintage
π Matches or outperforms leading TSFMs and econometric models on the full FRED-MD benchmark in a genuine real-time evaluation.
@BenjaminShiller A bit tangential: Is the student learning better or are they just experiencing lower cognitive friction coz reviewing? May be worth doing an experiment.
A personal weekend highlight! Just found out our paper on ML fraud detection was cited in the 2025 U.S. Joint Economic Report. Our research showing up in Congressional policy docs is wild (and super cool). Feeling pretty great about this one! β¨β¨
Paper ππ
Recently published at JPAM: "Can Machine Learning Target Health Care Fraud? Evidence From Medicare Hospitalizations" by Shubhranshu Shekhar,Β Jetson Leder-Luis,Β & Leman Akoglu.
https://t.co/WZxZBTf5uo
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