BREAKING: Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted +$999 million in inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake since October 2025.
This was also the 9th largest daily inflow since Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024 and follows the +$433 million recorded on Friday.
Demand was led by the largest Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT, which attracted +$381 million, its 3rd-largest daily inflow since January.
Over the last 3 trading days, $IBIT has posted a combined +$665 million in inflows.
So far in September, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted +$1.3 billion, after the +$3.5 billion recorded in August.
Appetite for crypto is surging.
HAWKISH FED SENDS DOLLAR TO TWO-MONTH HIGH
The dollar climbed to its highest level since July as Fed officials signaled more rate hikes may be needed to fight inflation.
Markets now price a 53% chance of an October hike after last week’s first increase in three years.
ING says both the Fed and ECB could tighten again, but an October move appears more likely from the Fed.
US Fed is expected to raise interest rates today for the first time in 38 months.
This would also be the first rate hike of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tenure, the same man Trump appointed expecting him to cut rates.
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FOMC decision drops later today
(2pm ET).
Markets are pricing a ~90%+ chance of the first 25bp hike since 2023 — taking the funds rate to 3.75–4.00%. Chair Warsh’s first big test.
What’s good: The economy can actually take it. Growth is solid, productivity and capex are strong, and the labor market is still absorbing workers without a spike in unemployment. Inflation is still running hot (CPI 3.4% YoY, PCE 3.7%), driven hard by energy after the Middle East shock — hiking now protects the Fed’s credibility after years above 2%. A divided committee last meeting (9-3) already showed the hawks were restless. Doing the unpopular thing on Day 1 of Warsh’s era signals independence.
What’s bad: Higher rates hit mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and small business immediately. Housing and rate-sensitive stocks usually hate the first hike after a long pause. Energy-driven inflation can fade if oil calms down, so this risks overtightening a supply shock.
Political pressure is real — the White House wanted cuts. And the next data (jobs + PCE) could flip the story fast if growth cools. Volatility is coming either way.
Watch the statement, the new dots, and especially Warsh’s presser. The hike itself is almost priced. The why and what’s next are not.
#FOMC #Fed #InterestRates #Inflation #KevinWarsh #Markets
Markets are bracing for a rate hike.
So, how do US stocks usually behave following the first hike of a Fed tightening cycle?
The S&P 500 has declined by an average of -4.0% over the 6 weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle across 7 such episodes since 1988.
Subsequently, however, stocks recovered all of those losses over the next 5-6 weeks on average.
Then, in the 6 months following the first hike, the S&P 500 returned +4.0% on average.
After 12 months, the S&P 500’s average gain surged to +9.0%, with positive returns occurring in every episode except 2022.
Fed rate hikes have historically been great buying opportunities.
REMINDER:
🇺🇸 FED will release interest rate decision at FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET today:
If rate cut → markets will go parabolic
If no change → markets will stay flat
If rate hike → markets will dump hard
This is the most important economic decision this month
All eyes on the release today!!
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senators who voted against advancing the Crypto Clarity Act:
Independents:
• Angus King
• Bernie Sanders
Republicans:
• Thom Tillis
• Jerry Moran
• Josh Hawley
• Susan Collins
Democrats:
• Andy Kim
• Tim Kaine
• Jack Reed
• Mark Kelly
• Ed Markey
• Tina Smith
• Jon Ossoff
• Alex Padilla
• Ron Wyden
• Dick Durbin
• Gary Peters
• Peter Welch
• Jeff Merkley
• Cory Booker
• Jacky Rosen
• Adam Schiff
• Brian Schatz
• Patty Murray
• Mark Warner
• Elissa Slotkin
• Mazie Hirono
• Chris Murphy
• Ben Ray Luján
• Ruben Gallego
• Maria Cantwell
• Maggie Hassan
• Amy Klobuchar
• Martin Heinrich
• John Fetterman
• Tammy Baldwin
• Michael Bennet
• Chuck Schumer
• Jeanne Shaheen
• Chris Van Hollen
• Elizabeth Warren
• Kirsten Gillibrand
• Raphael Warnock
• John Hickenlooper
• Tammy Duckworth
• Richard Blumenthal
• Lisa Blunt Rochester
• Sheldon Whitehouse
• Catherine Cortez Masto