I do think that’s a fair assessment, but then what’s the actual trigger?
Are you expecting prices to fall materially from here, or is this more likely a long slow burn where affordability improves as wages catch up?
If it’s the latter, are we talking 3 years, 5, 10?
In a lot of markets, buyers have leverage now and the 2026/27 renewal wall seems to be creating opportunities. If not now, what specifically would make it a better time to buy?
I’d say 90% of the people I’m talking about weren��t even using the FHSA . Its yearly contributions are too small to grow into anything meaningful , unless like you said you started at origin . I think there are deals for investors too depending on where you’re looking . I’d rather buy on the way down than on way up or trying to time the market bottom . Also investments work differently . You SHOULD just be looking at legit cashflow . Also depends on the kind of “investing” you do and product type
A lot of the “2027 mortgage renewal wall” might already be showing up in the 2026 market.
Think about all the 5-year mortgages taken out in 2021 and 2022, when rates were next to nothing. Those people are now coming up for renewal in 2026 and 2027, and many are facing a very different monthly payment than they originally signed up for.
But are they really all going to wait until the exact renewal date to make a decision?
Probably not.
A lot of owners are likely doing the math early. If the new payment doesn’t work, they may already be listing, downsizing, refinancing, or trying to exit before the renewal actually hits. And if they aren’t maybe they should be ?
That’s why I think 2026 could be an interesting time to buy. Some of the 2027 refinancing pressure may already be getting pulled forward into today’s market, which means the opportunity might show up before everyone is waiting for it.
#canada #housing
@PHfloor@danielfoch I mean - kind of need to be okay with whatever the avg age is because that’s the reality . Personally would love to see 30 as an avg . But that’s just a gut feeling of what a healthy market would be .