Pierre

Development planning expert | Decades in the uncomfortable trenches of demography, sociology, macroeconomics, housing policy & sustainable development | Charts

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Housing starts swing wildly. Annoying I know.

Linear trend always “up,” polynomial shows the cycle (better fit with data).

Can we get to the mythical supply-sider green line where volatility is suppressed + more supply + more empty units...which presumably drives price⬇️?

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@RomanFisher__ What do you the x-axis is and why do you think the line perk-up mid-way and then fall?

[Pierre @PHfloor]

I'm with Jeremiah.

I know folks are click-mining on here, but I would suggest chilling out on the dog crates and the rentals.

You live in cities people. Plus we way under-built PBRs, relying on condo investors for too long to contribute to the rental pool.

[Jeremiah Shamess | Toronto Land & Building Sales @JShamess]

@ronmortgageguy For the record the majority of ownership is held by private owners.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@riskarbitrage_ Well, 4M would about 24% of the existing housing stock.

If true, we have a lot of work to do😉

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Correct!

And if we are 4M short, folks should really start thinking about abandoning what they are doing and get into the homebuilding industry. Like now.

4M is ~16-years worth of housing at the current rate of production.

It's a lot.

[Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @Tablesalt13]

F'IN HOW?!!?

HOW!?!

Human beings NEED A LITERAL House to live in! .... and we're 4 MILLION SHORT.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@JShamess @LongstaffA ✔️

[Pierre @PHfloor]

The "dog crate condo" thing is a feeling, it's for people who have no control of themselves emotionally.

Also, small units serve a purpose, there is a segment of the population that wants them.

Good on Howard for debunking this stuff...

[Howard Chai @Howard__24]

For my latest story, I wanted to see whether there was truth to the narrative that developers are stuck with unsold condos cause they built too many studios and 1BRs. #vanRE

The data seems to disprove that, as 2/3 are 2BRs and 3BRs. Here's why:

https://t.co/RJS3o4IiiV

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@davidportier Don't worry, there are still more females overall in the country, and females continue to be the majority enrolled in colleges and universities.

But yes, should try to get more temps. that are female and fewer males.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

It's reasonable to question why there is a push at this juncture to deviate from the lower forecasted immigration levels.

It's not like we have miraculously delivered the infrastructure and bolstered the services needed to serve the recent population boom.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

RBC's note of the immigration numbers switch-up explains it nicely.

Have a look...

https://t.co/u2yi4rwPzS.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@oakridge604 Math teachers do God's work. Never forget that.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

There are three variables:

People coming
People leaving
Construction of schools and the purchase of desks

You don't need to build new schools if net number of students stays the same.

[Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 @MikePMoffatt]

It's not true.

Imagine a Grade 5 and Grade 6 class with 30 desks and 30 students each. Each student is expected to graduate.

But five Grade 6 students are held back. Now you'll have 35 students &30 desks in Grade 6. That's a shortage, despite the 5 students were "already here".

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Finally folks are coming around. You can use whatever catchy phrase you want to describe it.

San Francisco has not recovered it's population loss since the pandemic...why the high home prices?

Price is set at the margins.

Now get on WoWA and buy a mortgage.

[Daniel Foch @danielfoch]

because house prices are measured in dollars, not population growth

excellent research as always by @HanifBayat and the crew at @WOWA_Canada

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@Graff2023 I personally believe we'd be perfectly okay with zero immigration, but that won't make home prices drop.

Connecting the two diminishes your credibility.

Just say you want fewer immigrants because it's less disruptive to way of life you cherish.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Correct.

The average person does not care about housing supply, sales volumes--only the cost of ownership and price appreciation when they become owners.

[Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 @MikePMoffatt]

New Homes and Growth Coalition piece. Politicians and governments talk about housing solutions in terms of increasing housing starts. Canadians, however, think in terms of affordability and availability.

Read here: https://t.co/QM7wFzTY6f

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@danielfoch 💯

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@causeiexist @rhett_carlson @Sumskillz There is that too

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@NicholasOKane5 @peter_tulip This is how it occurred in Toronto in the 80s, in 2016 and 2021.

After each spike you get a pump in housing production.

House price change happens in concentrated periods of time.

Nothing planning initiatives can do to fix that.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

If so, that would be big, really big.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Does this mean the new housing system eliminates the inherent cyclicality of housing production and we establish a brand new trend where we just produce more of it?

[Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 @MikePMoffatt]

New report! MMI was happy to work with the National Housing and Investment Initiative (NHII), a group composed of leaders from Canada’s building industry and largest banks, on a report outlining ways to improve Canada's housing system.

Read here: https://t.co/eqlrd0vZwb

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@bal4_rednirus @danielfoch it's business isn't it

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Remember folks, the "limited time" offer on the GST "rebate" is to incentivize demand during a period of slow or falling sales.

A permanent GST rebate just means a repricing of inputs over time.

I've got fingers crossed for ever lower rates, forever.

[Daniel Foch @danielfoch]

The Big Five banks and the biggest builders just teamed up on one ask list for Ottawa. Top of it: make Ontario's new-home HST rebate permanent.