DanielK @daniel11458 - Twitter Profile

about 12 hours ago

Key events for the week ahead: Middle East tensions remain in focus amid renewed escalation risks and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. US CPI, Fed Chair Warsh's semiannual testimony, bank earnings, the BoC rate decision, and a number of central bank speakers on deck. OPEX flows hitting the tape later in the week with VIX expiry next week. #WeekAhead #FED #Warsh #CPI #OPEX #Earnings

TradeloTrading's tweet photo. Key events for the week ahead: Middle East tensions remain in focus amid renewed escalation risks and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. US CPI, Fed Chair Warsh's semiannual testimony, bank earnings, the BoC rate decision, and a number of central bank speakers on deck. OPEX flows hitting the tape later in the week with VIX expiry next week.
#WeekAhead #FED #Warsh #CPI #OPEX #Earnings

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Brannigan Barrett

@Trader_Bran

6 days ago

This is for educational purposes only. See Chart. Saylor was always very loud about his orange dots. So I updated his chart to add the selling dots so that its factually correct. It will also illustrate MSTR moving from BTC QE to BTC QT. Here are 3 scenarios of how i see BTC playing out, ordered in most likely to least likely. Scenario 1. Risk markets in general have a correction and BTC drops to $52,000. MSTR has confirmed it will raise 1.25bn by selling BTC. In the name of reserve management. Expect to see many more pink dots as MSTR raises cash. I would put this scenario as my base case. Scenario 2. Risk markets return to record highs given July is seasonally very good for risk and MSTR take advantage of elevated prices to sell as BTC continues to trade in 60-72k range. Scenario 3. The Fed decides to move forward with a hike in September announcing a series of insurance hikes at Jackson hole. This scares risk markets with deep 10% correction and forces more whales to front-run MSTR on way down. 15% chance. This scenario will force alot more sales of BTC given BTC will likely drop 15-25% and underpeform risk markets. What I want to stress with this chart. MSTR has always been a key anchor during price corrections and in particular during risk off moves. Now? Its a forced seller at lower prices. Instead of providing liquidity it will take liquidity. Of course this has yet to be proven. We would need risk-off to see exactly what happens. There will be a day of risk off in the coming months and I suspect the trigger is a rate hike from Fed. Importantly, MSTR wont be able to sell stock given its puking down the page to raise cash. And if BTC keeps falling, it will need to offer higher and higher yields to maintain par. I said it before, I will say it a again. MSTR should be quietly trying to exit BTC and build a war-chest so they can buy up the market again in the next risk off cycle. The alternative is they will simply bleed out and be forced to sell at whatever prices the market makes available. P.S. Maybe @saylor can update his chart to include the pink dots? #BTC #BITCOIN #CryptoMarkets

Trader_Bran's tweet photo. This is for educational purposes only. See Chart.

Saylor was always very loud about his orange dots. So I updated his chart to add the selling dots so that its factually correct. It will also illustrate MSTR moving from BTC QE to BTC QT.

Here are 3 scenarios of how i see BTC playing out, ordered in most likely to least likely.

Scenario 1. Risk markets in general have a correction and BTC drops to $52,000. MSTR has confirmed it will raise 1.25bn by selling BTC. In the name of reserve management. Expect to see many more pink dots as MSTR raises cash. I would put this scenario as my base case.

Scenario 2. Risk markets return to record highs given July is seasonally very good for risk and MSTR take advantage of elevated prices to sell as BTC continues to trade in 60-72k range.

Scenario 3. The Fed decides to move forward with a hike in September announcing a series of insurance hikes at Jackson hole. This scares risk markets with deep 10% correction and forces more whales to front-run MSTR on way down. 15% chance. This scenario will force alot more sales of BTC given BTC will likely drop 15-25% and underpeform risk markets.

What I want to stress with this chart. MSTR has always been a key anchor during price corrections and in particular during risk off moves. Now? Its a forced seller at lower prices. Instead of providing liquidity it will take liquidity. Of course this has yet to be proven. We would need risk-off to see exactly what happens. There will be a day of risk off in the coming months and I suspect the trigger is a rate hike from Fed.

Importantly, MSTR wont be able to sell stock given its puking down the page to raise cash. And if BTC keeps falling, it will need to offer higher and higher yields to maintain par.

I said it before, I will say it a again. MSTR should be quietly trying to exit BTC and build a war-chest so they can buy up the market again in the next risk off cycle. The alternative is they will simply bleed out and be forced to sell at whatever prices the market makes available.

P.S. Maybe @saylor can update his chart to include the pink dots?

#BTC #BITCOIN #CryptoMarkets

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Brannigan Barrett

@Trader_Bran

7 days ago

Back by popular demand The Daily Market Rundown is now available. 1. Is the Chip Stocks Bubble Bursting 2. OPEC Increases Output again 3. What are the Key macro events for the week https://t.co/fysqkp2CfU

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DanielK

@daniel11458

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