:DANI3L 🦦

making mistakes as lemmings
stubborn optimistic
constantly working like a bee to take a step forward

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@docXBT @chimpfone maybe he'll pass with failure cause AI would know for sure

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@CryptoGirlNova sad but true.

[DataFox @datafox21]

@daniel27249803 Looks like this was pretty close.

Two years ahead of time called for 120K in Nov 2025, when in reality it was 125K on Oct 6, 2025.

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@datafox21 indeed. nice that you revisited that old post

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@datafox21 yes very impressing :)

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@0xadriandefi Well I bet there will be another time of exceptional attention on crypto, probably less crazy and more product driven, but that could be years away. Prices will be volatile in between.

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@infraa_ is is a proove fact, that populism is inflationary? I understand the reasoning but would be interested, if there is a known causation.

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@stlg_ai @kingfisher_btc hm so a plausible outcome regarding liquidity, would be a smaller move up and then a alrger move down to get lare amounts of liquidity. Question is, if we would have enough liquidity left to restart a sustainable bull phase

[DataFox @datafox21]

I’m a consultant for 12 years in Cloud & AI/ML Applications with 100s projects under my belt. There’s nothing in me that believes AGI will ever happen. All of these models are trained on data and the metrics needed to evaluate or “decide” a good model are not 100% uniform, all our solutions are context dependent.

The other issue is these models are stochastic parrots BY DESIGN. They are not deterministic and a “good answer” requires unique context for nearly every one. eg false negatives with cancer diagnosis

I also definitely believe we are in a bubble meaning the spend for value (ROI) is 95-99% far apart and again, data quality in and custom very specific unique context dependent deterministic answers out are required.

The real value IMO is going to be time saved more so than job loss. We will see more great apps and great products much sooner with cheaper costs as not having to pay so many random front end developers to build. We will also get much better understanding of legal and medical documents for common people. As you can see OpenAI is already Tryitn to avoid upsetting big businesses and avoiding giving legal advice. So these models will be open source where people can use a better search context explainer engine on these data feeds to better navigate difficult legal, policy, and other concepts.

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@chrono_chartist thank you for displaying those 3 indicators in comparison

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@CryptoGirlNova strong... interesting. thx for sharing

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@CryptoGirlNova this time BTC revisiting the bottom zone of down wick. nice to see it following expected behavior

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@CryptoGirlNova agree. Additionally the lows of such wicks are likely to be revisited. (>50% of the time the area of downwicking bottom)

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@LukeGromen BTC/GOLD would have been surprising to many here

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@LeomathHeart But isn't that to be expected with an matururing asset and developing analytics for btc?

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@0xTrablo @fttrenches_ had contact with you about a year ago and learned through you telegram channel new things. Thanks for that and wonderful to see you still developing

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@0xTrablo tell us more about it !

[RickUntZ @chrono_chartist]

you will see lots of accounts speculate that on a macro side btc WILL do something because of past correlation. Follow something until it breaks that is fine- but recognize when it starts to deviate.

So, you won't see anyone talk about this as it does not fit the macro up only business cycle narrative, Do not get me wrong- I will say this as I have said in the past that I believe the cycle has changed dynamically, meaning moved with time or entered a new cycle this I have said even before my original cycle deviated end of February that it was always time for a possible cycle shift as cyclical cycles normally only repeat 3 or 4 times so it was always in my conversations since 2022, and in that sense I am bullish as I am not bullish because of a liquidity cycle, I am bullish on crypto because of crypto and its OWN cycle. But let's look at the whole correlation aspect. The Chinese credit impulse was said to lead the economy on more ways than one- it was ahead of ISM. The whole fundamental base for most macro "banana" zone posts you see these days

Now let's look at the comparison. Chinese credit impulse broke away from the stock market and BTC that has been going up in the longest up trend it has ever been in. Where things like the ISM diffusion however did show more increase like the previous cycles which has lots more weight imo than the one I will be sharing for illustrative purposes as that is the one people keep focusing on and floating around. Now to say the bull market has not even started yet because of ISM not entering a similar uptrend as the past would be misguided, as is to expect one asset class that has entered a bull market based upon so much more than just "liquidity" flows in the world and then make the assumption that it will continue because one cycle has yet to follow through.

Now let is look at the chart I wanted to show everyone. Let's say it continues, and ISM is the leader of the pact, yet follows similar fractal to Chinese credit cycle that could argumentatively be seen as the leader of ism for at least the last decade then it actually looks disheartening and not good.

I am saying this now and for the last time apart from where I will talk more on the topic when I stream or go on podcasts and such. DO not put your blind faith in someone that spills correlation= causation. Or one fractal worked this way and that means every fractal will work out the same, it is completely fine to theories on the liquidity cycle or business cycle, your 4y cycle or whatever cycle you like to invest time in, however following it blindly would not be a good idea.

The best you can do is recognize the change when it comes in and use everything you take into account WITH your TA signals and sentiment outlooks, incorporate everything in your toolbox and not only just cycle of fractal, the people that does that will continue to remain stagnant and stuck for much longer than they care to admit.

[:DANI3L 🦦 @daniel27249803]

@0xadriandefi retail is warming up :)