Seems like a lot of spread in Illinois/Houston predictions:
- @EvanMiya - Houston 64%
- @totally_t_bomb - Houston 54%
- @kenpomeroy - Houston 53%
- @haslametrics - *Illinois* 53%
What say ye, analytics guys? Is this a higher than normal amount of uncertainty for a top-10 game?
@kebzach@DavidBludgen@ALionEye If the possessions were split evenly then 1.54 PPP in the 2nd half. Would have to be only 42 poss. in the 2H to get 1.97 PPP — in a game with 108 possessions, no way that happened.
As best I can estimate, my entry to the Kalshi pool has roughly a 1-in-50,000 chance to win the $1M prize (assuming 10M entries). Not great, but about 200x over random chance.
The $20 expected return is far outweighed by the fun of trying to figure out the best entry.
Last day to give WYOP (Win Your Office Pool) a try! Data updated with the latest public pick data and KenPom ratings after last night's First Four results.
https://t.co/D6CDvecqk2
Excited to launch the beta version of a long-term passion project.
WYOP - Win Your Office Pool!
See how likely your bracket is to win any given pool.
Think a team is overrated by the analytics? With WYOP you can adjust team strength on the fly, too.
https://t.co/dT1UDIwaRW
Final prediction for @IlliniMBB on selection Sunday:
3 seed
Midwest Region
Michigan (1); Iowa State (2); Alabama (4)
Buffalo pod
Louisville (6); First 4 (11); Penn (14)
As of this morning's bracket matrix, two valid brackets of the 1-4 seeds are perfectly balanced (sum of seeds in regions):
Duke - Illinois - ISU - Vandy
Mich - UConn - Purdue - Kansas
'Zona - MSU - 'Zaga - 'Bama
Fla - Houston - Neb - UVA
Or swap UConn/Hou and Ku/UVA
@TylerCott Now you made it tougher! Right on the edge. I'd lean over but it depends heavily on the NCAAT draw. Think the kicker is that if we *do* upset Michigan (or OSU beats them), our odds to rack up 2+ wins in the BTT go way up.
@TylerCott@ALionEye Just play, not win? I'd take the over - multiple paths (beat Wiscy and a 14-15 seed, or a 14-15 and a 6-7) that are each better than 50/50 IMO.
@BCD123_@RayFinkle2013@ALionEye That's six handpicked "notable results". More objectively:
NET top 50: 2-5 ATS (your 6 -Chattanooga +Xavier +ISU)
NET top 100: 3-6 ATS (+Chattanooga +Duquesne)
That's good sport for debate, but much too small a sample size to conclude anything meaningful.
@BCD123_@RayFinkle2013@ALionEye I think we could test this theory. "When all information is factored into expectations set by a neutral observer at tip-off" is what vegas does best. Moneyline is better than spread here since the tourney is only about wins. What is BU's record vs the moneyline in the tourney?