Daniel Borup

I try to do meaningful and interesting "data stuff" for sports & sometimes politics.

Work Purposefully, Reflect Meaningfully, Live Joyfully.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

Seems like a lot of spread in Illinois/Houston predictions:

- @EvanMiya - Houston 64%
- @totally_t_bomb - Houston 54%
- @kenpomeroy - Houston 53%
- @haslametrics - *Illinois* 53%

What say ye, analytics guys? Is this a higher than normal amount of uncertainty for a top-10 game?

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

Iowa with a gift to the foes of Mordor!

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

Only way to cut a pizza in March

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@ALionEye It has to be. I'm even wondering where it falls all time, NCAAT or otherwise.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@kebzach @DavidBludgen @ALionEye If the possessions were split evenly then 1.54 PPP in the 2nd half. Would have to be only 42 poss. in the 2H to get 1.97 PPP — in a game with 108 possessions, no way that happened.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

As best I can estimate, my entry to the Kalshi pool has roughly a 1-in-50,000 chance to win the $1M prize (assuming 10M entries). Not great, but about 200x over random chance.

The $20 expected return is far outweighed by the fun of trying to figure out the best entry.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@DanKapolnek Thanks! Feedback would be greatly appreciated. Just managed to get it out the door this year, hoping to make major improvements for 2027!

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

Last day to give WYOP (Win Your Office Pool) a try! Data updated with the latest public pick data and KenPom ratings after last night's First Four results.

https://t.co/D6CDvecqk2

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

For example, the all-chalk bracket has about a 1.26% chance of winning a 100-person pool with standard scoring. That's decent, but far from optimal.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

Excited to launch the beta version of a long-term passion project.

WYOP - Win Your Office Pool!

See how likely your bracket is to win any given pool.

Think a team is overrated by the analytics? With WYOP you can adjust team strength on the fly, too.

https://t.co/dT1UDIwaRW

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@John_Fron Absolutely. Too busy today and didn't realize what MSU moving above us meant to the sites. Greenville should have been obvious instead.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

Final prediction for @IlliniMBB on selection Sunday:

3 seed
Midwest Region
Michigan (1); Iowa State (2); Alabama (4)
Buffalo pod
Louisville (6); First 4 (11); Penn (14)

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

As of this morning's bracket matrix, two valid brackets of the 1-4 seeds are perfectly balanced (sum of seeds in regions):

Duke - Illinois - ISU - Vandy
Mich - UConn - Purdue - Kansas
'Zona - MSU - 'Zaga - 'Bama
Fla - Houston - Neb - UVA

Or swap UConn/Hou and Ku/UVA

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@TylerCott Now you made it tougher! Right on the edge. I'd lean over but it depends heavily on the NCAAT draw. Think the kicker is that if we *do* upset Michigan (or OSU beats them), our odds to rack up 2+ wins in the BTT go way up.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@TylerCott @ALionEye Just play, not win? I'd take the over - multiple paths (beat Wiscy and a 14-15 seed, or a 14-15 and a 6-7) that are each better than 50/50 IMO.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@BCD123_ @RayFinkle2013 @ALionEye That's six handpicked "notable results". More objectively:

NET top 50: 2-5 ATS (your 6 -Chattanooga +Xavier +ISU)
NET top 100: 3-6 ATS (+Chattanooga +Duquesne)

That's good sport for debate, but much too small a sample size to conclude anything meaningful.

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@BCD123_ @RayFinkle2013 @ALionEye That's a fair hypothesis. What is BU's record vs. the spread against good teams in march?

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@BCD123_ @RayFinkle2013 @ALionEye I think we could test this theory. "When all information is factored into expectations set by a neutral observer at tip-off" is what vegas does best. Moneyline is better than spread here since the tourney is only about wins. What is BU's record vs the moneyline in the tourney?

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@ALionEye Both Maryland games as Q3. Don't think I've ever seen a home-and-home both in the same non-Q1 quad before!

[Daniel Borup @daniel_borup]

@Isaac__Trotter I think so. Don't see us missing STL unless we're behind both Purdue and Iowa St. If we go 2-0 do you think we're pretty safe there?