Really fun read. No one in AI is better at predicting the future. 10/10 recommend.
I agree with everything besides the implicit negative valence and neuroticism borne from the conclusions.
Unfortunately, it seems like the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all. Most of this post analyzes the new METR report (though other sources of evidence are also important). If they’re right, that implies an AI-driven acceleration that is 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario. I am scared, sad, and angry. https://t.co/7KWmdc6AZk
Claude Fable 5.2 (Max) is now #1 on Agent Arena, leading the Pareto frontier in real-world agentic performance!
Top models on Pareto Frontiers:
- #1 Claude Fable 5.2 (Max): +30.4% | $7.3/task
- #2 Claude Opus 5.5 (Max): +19.5% | $5.5/task
- #3 Gemini 4 Carbon (High): +17.0% | $1.5/task
- #7 GPT-6.1-Sol (Max): +12.5% | $1.1/task
- #8 GPT-6.1 Terra (Max): +10.8% | $0.9/task
Fable 5.2 delivers over 1.5x the net improvement of the #2 model, Opus 5.5, at a 32% higher median cost per task. Compared to Fable 5.1, it also delivers roughly 2x the net improvement at a 6% lower cost.
Congrats again to the @AnthropicAI team on this impressive release!
Today we’re launching the Gemini Decisions API, powered by our new Gemini Decision 1 model in @GoogleAIStudio.
Instead of generating text token by token, it’s built for closed-set choices scoring up to 1,000 questions across text, images, audio, video + PDFs in a single pass. A few details:
- 3 decision types: yes/no, multiple choice (up to 255 options) + rubric scoring
- $0.10 / 1M input tokens with $0 billed for output tokens (~5x cheaper than Flash-Lite)
- leads on several benchmark evals with lowest calibration error
Google teams are already building with it, below is a look at Stitch Rapid designing a full product flow in seconds (1x speed)
My workday consists of one repeated decision: delegate this task to an agent or not?
Can I give the agent enough context? Is this something I enjoy? Do I want to give it up?
It's exhausting.