Dan Alpert

Executive Chairman, Westwood Capital LLC; Adjunct Professor and Fellow in Macroeconomics and Finance, Cornell Law School; Author of The Age of Oversupply

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

"Whenever I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they may seem invincible, but in the end, they ALWAYS fail. Think of it: ALWAYS".
-- Mahatma Gandhi

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

And we have peak optimism! This almost perfectly parallels Apollo's acquisition of the remaining portion of Caesars in 2007, on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis. (@Peter_Atwater) https://t.co/SIBwcb66sP

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

The ultimate form of tax evasion: become President and threaten people:
https://t.co/m9tfJqp0Hu

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

@AndrewSparrow Andrew, see my thread to you at https://t.co/OCUbl5cP5I

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

@elonmusk Elon, you clearly spent too much time reading the utter crap turned out by "Ayn Rand." Alisa Rosenbaum (real name) was just an emigree from Russia who was pissed off that the Bolsheviks has appropriated her daddy's drug store. An angry, bitter, chain smoking, oversexed WHINER!

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

This clip is wild! The Chairman of Korn Ferry actually says that AI and other productivity growth will bring the US a broad "subsistance" class of low paying, low hours jobs and that a few people will make even more money. He spoke the quiet part out loud!
https://t.co/WTyyD5bVIu

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

In which @rch371 tells you why the US can be simultaneously fully self sufficient in oil, while suffering high prices due to an external oil supply disruption in the Gulf of Hormuz:
https://t.co/g5ZyYJnUk5
Hint: It's intentional!
We don't need to suffer.

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

@talmonsmith @matthewstoller https://t.co/EATjJFS1CC

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

#NFP April brought is back to the low-wage, low-hours "growth" economy. Retail + couriers and messengers up 60K. Healthcare and social assistance up 54K. Temporaries up 8K. Leisure and hospitality up 14K. Total is 126K of net 113K service sector and 123K total private sector.

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

This means that net growth in higher paying jobs sectors was negative in April. And you can see this in the fact the hourly wages rose only 0.16% in the aggregate M/M in spite of raging inflation. When jobs on offer decline in quality, negative pressures on demand soon follows.

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

#NFP April brought is back to the low-wage, low-hours "growth" economy. Retail + couriers and messengers up 60K. Healthcare and social assistance up 54K. Temporaries up 8K. Leisure and hospitality up 14K. Total is 126K of net 113K service sector and 123K total private sector.

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

This should be undeniable by now: #OperationEpicShitshow
https://t.co/cU9sgQ6lWo
Trump's Carter helicopter moment. Same country, same error, different era.

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

And there we go...while I called this two days ago, it really is the only logical move.

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

At 8am EDT Friday: Nothing doing in the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran is enjoying access to the Gulf of Oman and patrolling the area with the navy the US supposedly blew up. This is unforgivable. The way to reopen the Strait calls for the US to pursue a "Siege and Seal" strategy.>>

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

Effect: Cuts Iran's last revenue lifeline. Iran's domestic economic situation collapses faster. GDP loss accelerates beyond 10%. Regime calculus shifts from "endure and survive" to "negotiate before economic collapse."
**This war was a mistake, but it can have an honorable end.**

[Dan Alpert @DanielAlpert]

Real time: Still almost no traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (red = tankers; green = cargo) except a handful of Iranian, Chinese and Indian ships. Many hundreds more still at anchor on both sides. And the oil market is responding to this "non-truce," accordingly.