Daniel Brownlie

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

What multiple should Tesla have on 2022 earnings?

[James Stephenson @ICannot_Enough]

If $TSLA delivers $17.10 of 2022 earnings, they’re currently trading at a forward P/E of 50.👀
($857/17.10)

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@DrElectronX @LimitingThe The definition is not ambiguous. They have been clear. It’s more Miles/Intervention than Human Miles/collision.

That’s 700,000 miles.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@LimitingThe That means less than 1 intervention in 700,000 miles.

This is also the exact same
time line as he gave in October on the earnings call. No
slippage.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@waitbutwhy Impeachable

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@SolBrah Come hang out if you’re ever in Brisbane and want an outdoor Sauna and cold plunge

https://t.co/i7oTmV5Lhl

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@smdcapital freda?

[Tesla AI @Tesla_AI]

As October comes to a close, here's an update on the releases

What we completed:
- End-to-end on highway has shipped to ~50k customers with v12.5.6.1
- Cybertruck build that improves responsiveness
- Successful We, Robot event with 50 autonomous Teslas safely transporting over 2,000 passengers

What's coming next:
- Full rollout of end-to-end highway driving to all AI4 users, targeted for early next week, including enhancements in stop smoothness, less annoying bad weather notifications, and other safety improvements
- Improved v12.5.x models for AI3 city driving
- Actually Smart Summon release to Europe, China and other regions of the world
- v13 is a package of following major technology upgrades:
- 36 Hz, full-resolution AI4 video inputs
- Native AI4 inputs and neural network architectures
- 3x model size scaling
- 3x model context length scaling
- 4.2x data scaling
- 5x training compute scaling (enabled by the Cortex training cluster)
- Much improved reward predictions for collision avoidance, following traffic controls, navigation, etc.
- Efficient representation of maps and navigation inputs
- Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles
- Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking
- Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities
- Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage
- Improved camera cleaning and handling of camera occlusions

We have integrated several of these improvements and are already seeing a 4x increase in miles between necessary interventions compared to v12.5.4.
This lays the foundation for the v13 series, and we are targeting to ship v13.0 to internal customers by the end of this week.
Most of the remaining items are independently validated and will be integrated over November in a series of point releases.

We are targeting a wide release with v13.3 with most of the above improvements for AI4 vehicles around Thanksgiving!

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@Tesla_AI Hopefully, RHD markets in late Q1, early Q2, pending regulatory approval

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@sydney_ev I’ve seen cars go through garage walls man. I’m in favour of something hard to move being between sleepy, drunk, distracted or stupid people and an the battery.

Maybe Tesla could build a crumple zone into the pack, or as a bottle on accessory.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@raines1220 What data is this based on?

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@techAU The amount of leverage Elon is accruing over governments is non-trivial. Legitimate to be asking serious questions about it.

Starship in particular is a weapon. An armada of them makes Elon sovereign.

I’m ok with that.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@TSLAFanMtl Make because there will be a four seater variant with a steering wheel 🤔

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@TSLAFanMtl I wonder why they couldn’t design out that small triangular peice of glass behind the door - seems entirely aesthetic.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@TSLAFanMtl Two door, 4 seater hatch back, like a toyota yaris.

No glass roof of rear window.

Small battery.

Manually adjusted seats and rear view mirrors. No heated/cooled seats or stealing wheel. No Automatic opening boot. No frunk.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@smdcapital Also why would he clarify from 2026 production, to ‘before 2027’. The only possible difference is the possibility of 2026 production.

Maybe that hopium.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@freshjiva Exactly. Elon even said that it would be discussed at the 10/10 event.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@freshjiva I think you’re wrong because the driver is a small percentage of the cost of a running a semi, compared to the cost of a taxi or local freight and delivery.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@TSLAFanMtl Production speed is the key metric - especially if as some believe autonomy quickly becomes a commodity

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@realMeetKevin arb traders should mean that the order book is effectively that every betting market in the world on this, not just poly market.

Still, a few million might be enough to push it around.

Who does it serve though? Presumably underdogs get more turnout.

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@sydney_ev multiple statements in earnings calls implying new vehicle unveil at 8/8 and 10/10

[Daniel Brownlie @DanielBrownlie3]

@AlpacaAurelius Specifically for grass fed steak this is true - for all other meat not so much.

Who do you reckon is going to eat the bail of hay in your picture? A vegan?