Daniel

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[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$HIMS is looking a lot like $NFLX in 2022.

Hims & Hers lost 103,000 subscribers in Q3 compared to Q2.

The first quarterly subscriber decline since the company went public in January 2021.

In Q1 and Q2 2022, Netflix reported two consecutive quarters of declining subscribers.

Its stock ultimately collapsed 75% from its all-time high.

$HIMS says its subscriber decline was deliberate, driven by reduced marketing spending in the U.S.

I still need to dig deeper into the numbers and carefully review the earnings call transcript.

But the parallel with Netflix is fascinating.

In 2022, investors treated Netflix’s subscriber losses as evidence that its growth story was over.

Those who recognized the opportunity were rewarded enormously.

The question now is whether $HIMS is experiencing a temporary slowdown or something fundamentally more serious.

Because if it’s the former, this selloff could represent an extraordinary investment opportunity.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@GnarlyGainz You’ve got balls! It’ll be worth it $IREN

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$IREN has now tested its 200 WMA twice.

Both times, it bounced aggressively.

You will look back at buying $IREN at or below its 200 WMA as one of the best investment decisions you’ve ever made.

Pay close attention to this level.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$IREN only needs to drop 13% to touch its 200-week moving average.

The moment to pull the trigger is CLOSE.

A year ago, nobody thought they'd get a chance to buy $IREN near its 200 WMA.

Buy when fear is at its peak and sentiment is at rock bottom. Not when everyone wants the stock.

By now almost all the pessimism is priced in:

• Neoclouds will lose access to debt markets
• They won't be able to fund their build-out
• And now Texas will pause new data centers

Here's the reality: the market is wrong on ALL of it.

Fear is peaking. That's exactly when I get greedy.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@zoezkzk Yeah, it’s a shame $CRWV is already largely sold out for 2028. It has left a lot of money on the table.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$CRWV has realized that contracting out all its available capacity is a mistake.

CEO Michael Intrator revealed just how extreme the supply-demand imbalance has become:

“We are 10x oversubscribed to the existing capacity that we have left in 2027 and we are multiples oversubscribed on the capacity we have out in 2028.”

Now look at CoreWeave’s backlog.

• Early August: $130B, up $25B in just five weeks.
• September 30: $132.5B.

That’s an increase of only $2.5B in nearly two months.

And there’s a reason CoreWeave is becoming more selective about locking in capacity.

The imbalance between AI compute demand and supply keeps growing, driving revenue per MW to extraordinary levels.

Signing multiyear contracts generating roughly $20M per MW annually makes little sense when short-term deals can generate more than $40M per MW.

Elon Musk has even discussed pricing exceeding $50M per MW for $SPCX.

The economics are changing dramatically.

By keeping a portion of its capacity uncommitted, $CRWV can capture rising market prices instead of locking itself into today’s rates for years.

The biggest opportunity for $CRWV isn’t locking in more backlog. It’s maximizing the revenue and profitability of every MW it controls.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@0livierlachance Prices will keep climbing. The imbalance between supply and demand will continue to widen for several more years.

Elon said the payback period could drop to just 6 months in 2027. $SPCX

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@sanathduvuru I don’t think tomorrow’s earnings are crucial to $NBIS’s long-term future.

Regardless, I have no doubt $NBIS will smash earnings tomorrow, just like $IREN and $CRWV did.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

Some predictions:

• $NBIS becomes a hyperscaler. The AWS of AI.
• $ORCL becomes a $1T+ company within the next 3 years.
• $IREN fully monetizes its 5.8 GW power portfolio and becomes a $100B+ company.
• $CBRS becomes the go-to solution for fast inference across every major AI cloud.
• $GRAB becomes the operating system of Southeast Asia.
• $LMND becomes the largest insurance company in the world, offering the lowest premiums in the industry.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@0livierlachance Exactly! $CRWV’s $132.5B backlog is enormous, but at the same time, it’s a disadvantage

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@TheLongInvest $IREN at its 200 WMA now

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@oguzerkan Never buy something that has surged 25% in a single day $CRWV

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@AtlasStarL $GOOGL continues to buy $NVDA GPUs

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$NVDA trading at just 12x forward earnings looks ridiculously cheap.

Just look at this.

Elon Musk has confirmed that $SPCX will exclusively use NVIDIA GPUs:

“Going forward, we’ve decided to build exclusively on NVIDIA because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture.”

Musk is confident SpaceX will bring an additional 10 GW of compute online in 2027, with an ambitious target of up to 20 GW of power and cooling infrastructure.

Now look at these numbers.

• NVIDIA is expected to generate approximately $412B in revenue in FY2027, which ends in January 2027.

• Jensen Huang stated that 1 GW of Vera Rubin compute represents approximately $40B in value.

10 GW × $40B = $400 BILLION.

That’s the potential value of SpaceX’s planned expansion if fully equipped with Vera Rubin.

Nearly NVIDIA’s ENTIRE projected annual revenue.

From ONE customer.

And that’s before adding demand from hyperscalers like $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META and $ORCL, and neoclouds like $NBIS, $CRWV and $IREN.

In 2028, Musk plans to take AI computing into space, pushing demand to an entirely different scale.

The market is pricing NVIDIA at 12x forward earnings while a single customer is planning an expansion potentially worth hundreds of billions in NVIDIA hardware.

That disconnect is extraordinary.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@Surinde16943004 $IREN is sitting at its 200-week moving average.
Adding here or lower will be a great move.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$IREN’s vertical integration becomes even more valuable when financing conditions deteriorate.

Unlike neoclouds that rely heavily on leased colocation facilities, IREN owns its land, power infrastructure, and data centers.

It doesn’t have to rush into contracts or raise capital at unfavorable rates just to cover lease obligations.

As CEO Dan Roberts explained:

“I guess the benefit of our model is we can be patient. We can work through these market dynamics and be ready to flex up our growth once the financial markets recorrect.”

Goldman Sachs’ CEO recently emphasized that the debt market financing AI infrastructure won’t move in a straight line.

Financing conditions will constantly recalibrate as compute demand evolves, regulations change, and AI monetization progresses.

And we’re already seeing IREN respond.

As financing costs have risen, $IREN has reduced its CapEx guidance for two consecutive quarters.

This is the power of vertical integration.

While other neoclouds face pressure to accelerate deployment and generate revenue to cover their fixed obligations, IREN can afford to wait for better financing conditions.

IREN controls when to deploy capital, rather than letting its financing obligations dictate the pace of expansion.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@TelemedJustin $NFLX cracked down on password sharing

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$HIMS is looking a lot like $NFLX in 2022.

Hims & Hers lost 103,000 subscribers in Q3 compared to Q2.

The first quarterly subscriber decline since the company went public in January 2021.

In Q1 and Q2 2022, Netflix reported two consecutive quarters of declining subscribers.

Its stock ultimately collapsed 75% from its all-time high.

$HIMS says its subscriber decline was deliberate, driven by reduced marketing spending in the U.S.

I still need to dig deeper into the numbers and carefully review the earnings call transcript.

But the parallel with Netflix is fascinating.

In 2022, investors treated Netflix’s subscriber losses as evidence that its growth story was over.

Those who recognized the opportunity were rewarded enormously.

The question now is whether $HIMS is experiencing a temporary slowdown or something fundamentally more serious.

Because if it’s the former, this selloff could represent an extraordinary investment opportunity.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$AMD is on track to generate more than $100B in annual revenue from server CPUs alone by 2030.

$GOOGL’s latest announcement reinforces that thesis.

Google just selected AMD’s 5th Gen EPYC processors to power the host infrastructure for its new TPU 8tx AI systems.

Google builds its own AI accelerators.

Google builds its own server CPUs.

Yet it chose AMD EPYC.

AMD EPYC processors are already the host CPU of choice for more than 10 leading hyperscalers and frontier AI labs.

The real competitive advantage is that AMD’s CPUs can support:

• $NVDA GPUs.
• $AMD Instinct GPUs.
• Google’s TPUs.
• Custom AI accelerators from other hyperscalers.

AMD doesn’t need to win the AI accelerator race to win big from the AI infrastructure boom.

Lisa Su expects the server CPU TAM to reach $220B by 2030, with AMD capturing more than 50% of that market.

That’s over $110B in potential annual revenue.

From server CPUs alone.

And that’s before counting a single dollar from AMD’s GPU business.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

ClickHouse has a reported valuation as high as $56B.

$NBIS has historically owned approximately 28%.

That’s a stake potentially worth nearly $16B in a single non-core business.

And this exposes one of Nebius’ biggest competitive advantages over other neoclouds.

Nebius is sitting on billions of dollars in assets it can monetize to finance its explosive AI cloud expansion without relying heavily on debt or shareholder dilution.

And ClickHouse isn’t even the only asset Nebius can monetize.

Look at what $NBIS owns:

• ClickHouse: An open-source, column-oriented database platform.

• Toloka: An AI data platform backed by Jeff Bezos and Shopify’s CTO. Some analysts value it at $9.6B. Nebius owns more than 50% of its economic interests.

• Avride: An autonomous driving and delivery robotics company backed by $UBER. Nebius owns approximately 83%, while Uber owns the remaining 17%.

• TripleTen: A fast-growing edtech platform helping people build careers in technology.

Management has repeatedly stated its intention to monetize these businesses once they reach sufficient scale and valuations justify selling.

While other neoclouds must rely heavily on debt and equity financing to fund their expansion, $NBIS has another option.

It can sell stakes in businesses it built years ago and redirect that capital into AI infrastructure.

The market is pricing $NBIS like a capital-starved neocloud while overlooking billions of dollars in assets it can monetize to finance its expansion.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@thealtcoinchief Elon said they’ll have more power and cooling infrastructure than GPUs they can deploy.
Listen to the Q3 earnings call $SPCX

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

@wensontrading Never bet against Larry $ORCL

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$ORCL is trading 22% below its 200-week moving average.

A historical support level it has lost only four times in the past 17 years, reclaiming it relatively quickly each time.

At $119, this is one of the most obvious buying opportunities in the entire stock market.

Oracle expects to generate more than $21 in EPS by FY2030.

At a 20x P/E multiple, that’s a $420 stock.

253% upside.

Oracle’s average P/E over the past decade has been 31x.

Apply that multiple, and $ORCL reaches $651.

447% upside.

And the fundamentals are extraordinary.

• Revenue growing from $67B in FY2026 to over $225B by FY2030.

• Free cash flow turning positive in H2 FY2028.

• $30B in annual free cash flow by FY2029.

• Expansion becoming self-funded starting in FY2029.

Following last week’s $20B debt and equity raise, management expects to have secured all the external capital it needs through FY2030.

The market is punishing Oracle for the massive capital investments required to build its AI infrastructure.

But those investments are precisely what will drive its future earnings and cash flow.

The market is pricing Oracle’s temporary financing pressure as a permanent problem.

At $119, the opportunity is extraordinary.