Wearing the entrepreneur hat this week and starting a new business. Great plan of attack but no product yet. A dream told me to find the product in a dream
The slop-bowl-apocalypse continues. $CMG Same store sales down -2.5%, and the fourth Q in a row of declining traffic (-3.2%). Margins ok, BUT guidance for flat SSS for this year, implying that nothing is working to get more orders in, and +3-4% topline? No bueno at 33x ‘26 P/E!
$SMCI Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $12.70B (Est. $10.42B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.69 (Est. $0.49) 🟢
🔹 Gross margin: 6.30%
Q3'26 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: at least $12.30B (Est. $10.25B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: at least $0.60 (Est. $0.52) 🟢
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: at least $40.B
Financials:
🔹 Net income: $401.00M
🔹 Cash & cash equivalents: $4.10B
🔹 Total bank debt + convertible notes: $4.90B
🔹 Operating cash flow: -$24.00M
🔹 Capex + investments: $46.00M
Commentary:
🔸 “With our leading AI server and storage technology foundation, strong customer engagements, and expanding global manufacturing footprint, we are scaling rapidly to support large AI and enterprise deployments while continuing to strengthen our operational and financial execution.”
Hoy, desde las 5pm, inauguramos la Villa Navideña 2025 en el Centro Histórico.
Tres plazas completamente renovadas, nuevos espacios, espectáculos todos los días, la Estación del Tren, la Fábrica de Galletas, la Casa del Grinch, la Casa de Santa, la Casa de Lula, talleres, música, desfiles, el Mercado Navideño y el árbol de Navidad más grande de Centroamérica.
Estará abierta y sin ningún costo, todos los días de diciembre, de 10am hasta la media noche.
Top Overnight news
The US and Ukraine have drafted a new 19 pt peace deal but left the most politically sensitive elements to be decided by the countries’ presidents, according to Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister. FT
Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push a rate cut through a divided committee at next month’s meeting even though it could draw multiple dissents. The unusual level of division inside the Fed means that, to an even greater degree than usual, the final call rests with Powell. WSJ
Donald Trump’s health care plan is in limbo after pushback from Republicans who were caught off guard by the president’s forthcoming proposal. Trump had been expected to unveil a new policy framework Monday afternoon, said two people familiar with the plan and granted anonymity to describe deliberations around it. Politico; US House Speaker Johnson reportedly cautioned the White House that most House Republicans are not in favour of extending enhanced ACA subsidies: WSJ
White House said Trump signed an executive order related to AI research, while the order will boost AI-accelerated innovation and directs the building of AI platforms to harness federal scientific data sets.
Nvidia shares dropped premarket on a report that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. Alphabet shares rose premarket, with the company’s AI ascent poised to shake up the rankings of the world’s most valuable companies (NVDA -345bps premkt, GOOG +393 bps premkt). BBG
China instructed its airlines to reduce the number of flights to Japan through March 2026, people familiar said. Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi said Trump briefed her on his call yesterday with Xi Jinping. BBG
SoftBank shares tumbled on worries that the latest Gemini AI model from Alphabet may intensify competition for OpenAI — the Japanese conglomerate’s key investment. BBG
European car sales rose for a fourth month in October, driven by increases in Spain and Germany. The UK and Italy stagnated. BBG
Mutual funds have increased their equity market exposure in recent months in a struggle to keep up with benchmarks. Only 29% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared to an average of 37% since 2007. In response, funds have reduced their cash allocations to 1.2% of assets, a record low. Goldman
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she supports lowering interest rates at the central bank’s meeting next month because she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. WSJ
Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said there are real use cases for AI, but not for crypto, and noted people are feeling hardship due to inflation.
US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th: BEA.
FUTURES RISE AFTER FED’S WILLIAMS SIGNALS POSSIBLE DECEMBER RATE CUT
U.S. stock futures climbed Friday after Fed President John Williams hinted a December rate cut. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, despite major indexes heading for their worst week since March.
Williams said there is “room for further adjustment” to rates and noted easing inflation risks. Traders lifted the odds of a December cut to over 50%, up from 37%.
The Nasdaq remains under pressure amid concerns over tech monetization and rising debt. Williams also said inflation has stalled near 2.75%, partly due to trade policies, but he expects it to move back toward 2% by 2027.
CF's Stock Market Recap
- $SPY $QQQ failed at resistance & big reversal
- surprising? NO there have been red flags for weeks. Complacency is one of them.
- Fed Fund Futures now indicate no rate cut in Dec. = liquidity problem
https://t.co/96uwp1nTXz