Dan Scags

Online Sweetshop Don & Retail Investor Ex Talksport & Soccer Am, Former TCG & TTCF shareholder Long TSLA, NVDA, META, DIS, LVMH & PLTR

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🇫🇷 France vs Senegal 🇸🇳

🇸🇳 El Hadji Malick Diouf

A roaring full-back who whips crosses into the box like a banshee.

Tonight he’s got:

⚡ Mané
⚡ Jackson
⚡ Sarr

waiting to attack them.

Betfair’s shot creation markets caught my eye:

🎯 2+ shots created @ 12/5
🎯 3+ shots created @ 15/2
🎯 4+ shots created @ 25/1

I also like the assist line at 13/2. The fpl assist rules don’t hurt either.

Interesting ladder. 👀

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🇧🇪 Belgium v Egypt 🇪🇬

I think this is a generous price for someone 6ft 5in

🎯 Amadou Onana 1+ Headed Shot on Target @ 14/1

He’s a huge target from corners and free-kicks.

📊 1+ Headed Shot - 19/10 @ Betfred

Unless Onana has a 50p head, I’m struggling to see how those two markets align 🎯

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🇩🇪 Germany v Curaçao

Not a game screaming value but one angle caught my eye.

Bet365 seem far more willing than Betfair to price up Sherel Floranus getting involved.

🪜 Floranus Fouled Ladder

✅ 1+ Fouls Won @ 5/4
✅ 2+ Fouls Won @ 7/1
✅ 3+ Fouls Won @ 25/1

Adding in a couple of Florian Wirtz lines as that’s the battle that intrigues me.

🎯 Wirtz 1+ Foul Committed
🎯 Wirtz 1+ Tackle

Let’s see if Wirtz had his Weetabix this morning. 🥣 @StatsHubCom

[Dan Scags @danscag]

@cagwassell @VARbotOfficial You’re clearly thick as shit

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🇶🇦 Qatar v Switzerland

🍌 Banana Watch

Vargas and Ndoye down the Swiss flanks could make for a long night for the Qatari full-backs.

Ayoub Al-Oui & Homam Al-Amin both to be booked.

12/1 Bet365
45/1 BetMGM 👀

Same bet. Very different prices.

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🌎 World Cup opening day.

Before the longshots, dark horses and centre-back theories…

Let’s start by finding the fairway with four Mexico boosts:

⚽️ Betfair – Over 0.5 first-half goal
🇲🇽 Bet365 – Mexico to score
🏆 Sky Bet – Mexico to win
🟢 BetMGM – Mexico to wear green

The real fun starts later.

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

My World Cup system is back.

104 matches.

Every centre-back.
Every game.
First Goalscorer.

Sounds ridiculous until a 40/1 centre-half nods in a corner after 12 minutes.

Set pieces decide tournaments.

I’ll chart the journey.

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

👀 Here’s a creative World Cup market from Unibet.

Goals & Assists Combined — club by club.

The twist?

Players only need to outperform their club team-mates at the World Cup.

🇪🇸 Real Madrid — Federico Valverde 33/1
🇫🇷 PSG — Vitinha 14/1
🔴 Man Utd — Amad Diallo 18/1

I’m convinced there’s a monster price hiding somewhere.

Who is it? 👀

[Dan Scags @danscag]

@dannykellywords Wish you the best Danny, by far the best, funniest, most knowledgeable and kindest broadcaster on the network.

Colleagues current, former and listeners all supporting you 👊 get back soon

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

Credit to Betfred for a seriously fun World Cup market I’ve been made aware of.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Top Premier League Goalscorer
🇧🇷 Igor Thiago 10/1

🇪🇸 Top La Liga Goalscorer
🇦🇷 Julian Alvarez 9/1

🇩🇪 Top Bundesliga Goalscorer
🇨🇴 Luis Diaz 8/1

🇮🇹 Top Serie A Goalscorer
🇹🇷 Kenan Yildiz 22/1

22,769/1 the fourfold 🤯

Completely irresponsible.

Naturally I’ve done a Lucky 15.

🎯 Throwing darts like Stephen Bunting.

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🌎 World Cup minnow theory…

🇶🇦 Qatar
🇳🇿 New Zealand
🇭🇹 Haiti
🇮🇶 Iraq
🇵🇦 Panama

Combined points total: 0

Bet365: 99/1
Betfair: 168/1 😳

Surely one of them flukes a draw.

Who bursts my bubble?

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

Some World Cup Top Scorer prices are wild.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Ollie Watkins 33/1
🇧🇷 Neymar 40/1
🇩🇪 Nick Woltemade 25/1

What’s the worst bet on the board? 🤔

Over 2.5 goals combined for those three would feel generous 🤦‍♂️

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

🦁🦁🦁

Are you bullish or bearish on Tuchel’s England?

Sky Bet are offering 6/1 on:

🇪🇸 Spain QF
🇫🇷 France QF
🏴 England QF

Bet365’s equivalent is 4.25/1.

Spain and France aren’t really the question.

Can the Three Lions sleepwalk into the last eight?

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

4 more class accounts I’ve found genuinely useful for my World Cup timeline:

🧵 @futbolanalytica
Team & player breakdowns.

🟨 @TheCardDealer
Foul models.

📺 @DaleJohnsonBBC
VAR & laws

🧑‍⚖️ @m_kirby95
Referee profiles

Different angles. Different info.

Worth a follow. 🌍⚽

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

Tailed Güler at 80/1. The price & thesis is good.

The last few World Cup assist leaderboards are full of names who came from nowhere to dead heat & contend

A few other prices discussed:

🇧🇷 Paquetá 66/1
🇨🇴 James 70/1
🇨🇴 Luis Díaz 70/1
🇳🇴 Odegaard 70-1
🇹🇷 Çalhanoğlu 200/1

[Dan Scags @danscag]

@talkSPORT He’s just making himself into a rage bait pantomime clown 🤡 which is fine but then he should be pulled off of commentary & the elements which require punditry

[Dan Scags @danscag]

@MikeKeegan_DM @MailSport Clickbait

[Dan Scags @danscag]

@ltarsenal Alvarez, Rodgers, Tonali, not sure about RB most likely someone out of La Liga

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

World Cup thoughts… 🌎🏆

🇵🇹 Portugal - best midfield?

🇫🇷 France - best attack?

🇧🇪 Belgium - best GK ? (assuming 🇪🇸 continue to bench theirs…)

Best defence?

That’s the one causing debate.

🇧🇷 Marquinhos & Gabriel is some pairing
&
🇲🇦 Morocco built on defensive discipline.

[Johnny Poker @RealJohnnyPoker]

Not every gamble involves a betting slip

Bought this last week from USA:

Myles Lewis-Skelly Gold Refractor Rookie /50 PSA 10.

At 19, he became the 2nd-youngest Englishman ever to start a ECL Final.

💎 Gold RC /50
📊 PSA Population: 2

A serious talent. A seriously scarce card