Danu Sbastian

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

Good morning everyone.

Below is my latest macro view on Indonesia, originally prepared for my employer and published with permission for public discussion.

Indonesia remains one of Southeast Asia’s largest economies, but beneath the headline 5% GDP growth lies a far more fragile macro picture. The country is increasingly facing a triple deficit:

• Fiscal deficit: Debt-to-GDP remains relatively low, but debt servicing now consumes more than half of government revenue, leaving limited fiscal flexibility. The constitutional 3% fiscal deficit cap remains Indonesia’s most important macro anchor. Breaching it would severely damage policy credibility, weaken the rupiah, raise borrowing costs, increase the risk of sovereign rating downgrades, and potentially trigger capital flight.

• External deficit: The commodity-driven trade surplus is narrowing. Coal faces long-term structural pressure as renewables gradually displace thermal generation, while Chinese downstream investment is becoming increasingly selective amid rising policy uncertainty.

• Confidence deficit: Perhaps the most dangerous of all. Investors are increasingly questioning fiscal discipline, regulatory consistency, governance quality, banking independence, and policy predictability. Once confidence deteriorates, higher interest rates alone are unlikely to stabilize the currency.

Indonesia still possesses enormous strengths: a young population, abundant natural resources, and tremendous tourism potential. However, demographics alone cannot compensate for weak execution, declining education quality, a shrinking middle class, or an increasingly uncertain policy environment.

I would be happy to hear your views, challenge my assumptions, and discuss where Indonesia goes from here.

[Rajesh Agarwal @Rajesh992510253]

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[Surya Herry @cukhurukuque]

Apakah pertumbuhan ekonomi kita "real" diangka 5.61%? Tapi kok dilapangan banyak yang ngeluh tambah sulit? Pengangguran turun ke 4,68%, Yang kerja tambah banyak, tapi kok dilapangan makin susah? Yuk kita bahas pelan pelan. Kamu enggak perlu background ekonomi untuk memahami tulisan ini sampai habis.

[Twips | AI & Crypto @TwipsX]

Saham $BBCA anjlok -25% sejak awal tahun. Banyak yang panik jual dan banyak yang FOMO beli.

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[Angga Fauzan  @angga_fzn]

Jumlah tabungan minimal utk Financial Freedom dari googling:
- Indonesia: 2.5 - 5 Milyar
- Singapura: 12 - 24 Milyar
- Amerika: 19 - 40 Milyar
- Jepang: 5.5 - 11 Milyar
- Perancis: 14 - 21 Milyar

Secara umum, standar yg sering dipake tuh Aturan 4%, yakni kebutuhan tabungan/investasi sebesar 25 kali pengeluaran tahunanmu lalu ditarik 4%/tahun.

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[Blue Candle @bluecandleway]

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Elliott found that financial markets have characteristic movements that repeat in perpetuity. He called these movements "waves," due to the troughs and peaks that present themselves in a cyclical up-and-down fashion."

***

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[Desmond Wira @desmondwira]

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"7% Rule" atau "Aturan 7%" untuk meminimalkan kerugian dalam trading saham dipopulerkan oleh William J. O'Neil, pendiri Investor's Business Daily (IBD) dan sistem investasi yang dikenal sebagai CANSLIM

"Aturan 7%" adalah strategi manajemen risiko yang diakui secara luas dalam trading saham yang menetapkan bahwa investor harus menjual saham jika harganya turun 7% hingga 8% di bawah harga pembelian awal. Aturan ini dirancang untuk melindungi modal, mencegah pengambilan keputusan emosional, dan membatasi kerugian sebelum menjadi parah. Pada prinsipnya, menekankan pada tindakan segera untuk mengurangi kerugian, daripada bertahan dengan harapan akan terjadi rebound

Tujuan: Untuk mencegah kerugian kecil berubah menjadi kerugian besar, karena saham berkualitas jarang jatuh lebih dari 7%–8%

Penerapan: Aturan ini umumnya digunakan oleh trader swing dan growth stock (misalnya, pengguna strategi CANSLIM)

Contoh: Jika saham dibeli seharga $100, penurunan 7% memicu penjualan seharga $93

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[Han Jee Pyeong @tradingforlyf]

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[Desmond Wira @desmondwira]

Lagi gabut libur long weekend?

Nih tonton pidato lawas Warren Buffett di th 98, menjelaskan investasi yg bikin cuan

Bukan pidato omon-omon. Berkshire Hathaway, perusahaan WB, hrg sahamnya th 1998 $37. Di 2026 jadi $400K (plus stock split 1:50 di 2010)
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[Danu Sbastian @danu8797]

@bankbtn @bankbtn Petugas pelayanan nya aja ditambahin. Kasian ini banyak yang ijin kerja mau aktivitas lainnya kalo harus nunggu lama.

[Danu Sbastian @danu8797]

Halo @bankbtn , tolong pelayanan BTN Cabang Kranji diperbaiki, terutama dibagian Pengambilan Dokumen/Sertifikat. Petugasnya cuma 3 orang, ini banyak yang antri udah lama. Karna satu orang aja bisa membutuhkan waktu beberapa menit.